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Topic
Leading indicators
4 guides in Finabase Learn
- Jobless claims: reading the weekly unemployment insurance report How weekly initial and continuing jobless claims are counted, why the 4-week average matters, and what claims did in 2001, 2009 and 2020.
- Leading, lagging and coincident indicators: what turns first Which economic indicators turn before, with and after the business cycle, what the Conference Board indexes hold, and how claims and permits behaved in 2001 and 2008.
- The Sahm rule: a recession signal from the unemployment rate How the Sahm rule works, a step-by-step calculation, its record since 1960, why it crossed 0.50 in 2024 with no recession following, and real-time versus revised data.
- Yield curve inversion: what it signals and its recession record What an inverted yield curve is, why it has preceded US recessions, its full track record since 1966 including the 2022–2024 inversion, and 10y–3m versus 10y–2y.
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