Shell plc SHEL

Take time to read this analysis. It may not be super accurate, but it may be very close.?

Current U.S. commercial crude inventory is approximately 418.2 million barrels, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) holds roughly 340.2 million barrels. Assuming the Strait of Hormuz is fully open and refineries in the Los Angeles port area (PADD 5) run near full capacity, here is the 7-week inventory projection.

7-Week Inventory & Demand Projection

Over the past several weeks, the U.S. has averaged total petroleum product supplied (demand) of roughly 20.6 million barrels per day, equating to about 144.2 million barrels per week.

Starting Inventory: 418.2 million barrels

Weekly Consumption: -144.2 million barrels

Projected 7-Week Demand: 1,009.4 million barrels

Additional Oil Needed (Over 7 Weeks): 591.2 million barrels (Total 7-Week Demand minus 418.2M)

Tanker Logistics & Refinery Throughput

Tanker Transit: A 12,000 nautical mile journey from Saudi Arabia around Africa's Cape of Good Hope at 12 to 15 knots takes about 35 to 45 days (5 to 6.5 weeks).

Port Unloading: A fully loaded Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) carrying 2 million barrels takes 24 to 36 hours to safely discharge at the Port of Los Angeles or Long Beach, depending on pumping rates.

Refinery Capacity: The Los Angeles port area and broader West Coast (PADD 5) boast a crude oil distillation throughput capacity of roughly 2.2 to 2.5 million barrels per day.

7-Week Outcome & Strategic Need
At the end of week 7, commercial inventories will be fully drained and require massive drawdowns from the SPR (which currently holds 340.2 million barrels).

State of National Supply: By the end of the 7-week mark, commercial supply would be critically, dangerously low. While the U.S. wouldn't instantly "run dry" of all emergency petroleum, relying completely on the SPR indicates a severe national emergency.

The First Tanker Arrival: If a tanker leaves Saudi Arabia at the beginning of Week 1, it will arrive to unload in Los Angeles at the end of Week 5 to Week 6, meaning there will be a significant operational gap where commercial supplies will need to be bridged by SPR drawdowns and existing domestic production.

Projected Gas & Oil Prices
Because commercial inventories sit 6% below their 5-year average, and the 7-week trajectory requires aggressive use of strategic emergency stocks, the market will register a severe supply-demand deficit. Barring other global market interventions, ,,,,,,, (this desperate running down of stocks will push crude oil and gasoline prices sharply upward as market panic and physical supply constraints drive premiums higher.)

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Thank God the pipeline still there.

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZTdDwEeSd/

My understanding as a former employee of Shell is the Netherlands wanted Shell to move more quickly towards green and there was a conflict there and that’s part of the reason they move their headquarters out.

The German government is now in the process of rethinking the closing down there last three nuclear facilities and also did an about face with sending arms to Ukraine unthinkable two weeks ago.

The swiss government has also done the unthinkable freezing foreign assets of Russian oligarchs…. Unimaginable two weeks ago.

As a former employee of Shell corporation once they make a decision to do something they normally do it no matter what the cost is good or bad that’s one of the downsides of working for Shell corporation.

They will write down without question investments in Russia I have seen it before when they did a right down in Alaska for $25 billion dollars people that follow this company notice as a fact.

There’s no question they want it out of dirty oil and that has been the plan for quite some time everybody know this….however geo political politics have changed dramatically they may do unthinkable move back into dirty oil because this episode with the Russians may last easily 10 years.?

As my former employee I will have to tell you the honest truth nothing matters more than making a profit no matter what they have to do they will do it….it’s in their DNA.

In my opinion one of the reasons why Shell stock is down they are redefining their selves.