Economy
The US economic calendar and the Treasury yield curve.
Treasury yield curve
- 10-year
- 5.10%
- 2-year
- 4.86%
- 3-month
- 4.32%
- 10Y − 2Y
- +24 bp Normal
- 10Y − 3M
- +78 bp Normal
- Today (Nov 12)
- 1 month ago (Oct 13)
- 1 year ago (Nov 12 ’25)
10Y − 2Y spread, last 90 days
Aug 17+53 bp Nov 12+24 bp
Show rates
| Tenor | Today | 1 month ago | 1 year ago | Change vs 1 month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.12% | 4.10% | 4.03% | +2 bp |
| 2M | 4.26% | 4.15% | 3.98% | +11 bp |
| 3M | 4.32% | 4.26% | 3.95% | +6 bp |
| 6M | 4.42% | 4.34% | 3.78% | +8 bp |
| 1Y | 4.65% | 4.48% | 3.65% | +17 bp |
| 2Y | 4.86% | 4.79% | 3.56% | +7 bp |
| 3Y | 4.90% | 4.90% | 3.55% | 0 bp |
| 5Y | 4.95% | 5.00% | 3.68% | −5 bp |
| 7Y | 5.02% | 5.11% | 3.86% | −9 bp |
| 10Y | 5.10% | 5.21% | 4.08% | −11 bp |
| 20Y | 5.48% | 5.60% | 4.65% | −12 bp |
| 30Y | 5.43% | 5.56% | 4.67% | −13 bp |
Economic calendar
Friday, Nov 6
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:30 AM | Fed Williams Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 8:30 AM | Non Farm Payrolls (Oct) | High | 165K above forecast | 65K | 60K |
| 8:30 AM | Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Oct) | High | 159K above forecast | 64K | 78K |
| 8:30 AM | U-6 Unemployment Rate (Oct) | High | 7.9% above forecast | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| 8:30 AM | Unemployment Rate (Oct) | High | 4.1% below forecast | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 8:30 AM | Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Oct) | Medium | 0.4% above forecast | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30 AM | Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Oct) | Medium | 3.1% above forecast | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| 8:30 AM | Participation Rate (Oct) | Medium | 61.9% in line | 61.9% | 61.8% |
| 9:10 AM | Fed Musalem Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 10:00 AM | Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov) | High | 51 above forecast | 48 | 48 |
| 12:15 PM | Fed Bowman Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 3:30 PM | CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions | Medium | 80.3K | — | 74.3K |
| 3:30 PM | CFTC Gold Speculative net positions | Medium | 179.5K | — | 186.5K |
| 3:30 PM | CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions | Medium | 42.9K | — | 48.8K |
| 3:30 PM | CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions | Medium | −129.4K | — | −134.4K |
Monday, Nov 9
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 PM | Fed Barkin Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 12:15 PM | Fed Bowman Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 1:00 PM | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) | Medium | 3.5% above forecast | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 3:00 PM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
Tuesday, Nov 10
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00 AM | Fed Waller Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 8:30 AM | CPI (Oct) | High | 337.51 Index above forecast | 337.02 Index | 336.94 Index |
| 8:30 AM | CPI s.a (Oct) | High | 337.48 above forecast | 337 | 336.3 |
| 8:30 AM | Core Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) | High | 0.3% above forecast | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 8:30 AM | Core Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | High | — | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| 8:30 AM | Inflation Rate MoM (Oct) | High | 0.4% above forecast | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 8:30 AM | Inflation Rate YoY (Oct) | High | — | 3.9% | 3.7% |
| 9:35 AM | Fed Logan Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 1:30 PM | Fed Schmid Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 4:30 PM | API Crude Oil Stock Change (Nov/06) | Medium | 9M above forecast | −1M | −5.27M |
| 6:30 PM | Fed Bowman Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
Wednesday, Nov 11
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5:00 AM | OPEC Monthly Report | Medium | — | — | — |
| 7:00 AM | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Nov/06) | Medium | 7.21% | — | 7.3% |
Thursday, Nov 12
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct/31) | High | 1,697K below forecast | 1,710K | 1,717K |
| 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims (Nov/07) | High | 200K above forecast | 195K | 191K |
| 8:30 AM | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Nov/07) | High | 195.25K above forecast | 192.5K | 195.25K |
| 9:00 AM | Fed Hammack Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales (Oct) | High | 3.75M below forecast | 3.85M | 3.97M |
| 10:00 AM | Existing Home Sales MoM (Oct) | High | −5.5% below forecast | 0.3% | 1% |
| 10:00 AM | Fed Barr Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 11:30 AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 12:00 PM | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Nov/06) | Medium | 4.66M above forecast | −1.1M | −0.87M |
| 12:00 PM | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Nov/06) | Medium | 1.8M above forecast | −0.1M | −0.22M |
| 2:00 PM | Budget Balance (Oct) | Medium | −404B below forecast | −298.6B | −27B |
| 6:30 PM | Fed Williams Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
Friday, Nov 13Today
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Producer Price Index MoM (Oct) | High | 0.3% below forecast | 0.4% | 1.4% |
| 8:30 AM | Core PPI MoM (Oct) | Medium | 0.3% in line | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 10:50 AM | Fed Bowman Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 12:00 PM | Fed Daly Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 7:00 PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
Monday, Nov 16
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5:00 AM | Fed Barr Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 8:30 AM | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov) | High | — | 10 | 25.5 |
| 9:05 AM | Fed Williams Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 3:30 PM | CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions | Medium | — | — | 80.3K |
| 3:30 PM | CFTC Gold Speculative net positions | Medium | — | — | 179.5K |
| 3:30 PM | CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions | Medium | — | — | 42.9K |
| 3:30 PM | CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions | Medium | — | — | −129.4K |
Tuesday, Nov 17
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Oct) | High | — | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| 8:30 AM | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM (Oct) | High | — | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30 AM | Retail Sales MoM (Oct) | High | — | 0% | 0.8% |
| 8:30 AM | Export Prices MoM (Oct) | Medium | — | 1.4% | 2.2% |
| 8:30 AM | Import Prices MoM (Oct) | Medium | — | — | 1.1% |
| 8:30 AM | Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Oct) | Medium | — | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 9:15 AM | Industrial Production MoM (Oct) | Medium | — | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 9:15 AM | Industrial Production YoY (Oct) | Medium | — | — | 2.25% |
| 10:00 AM | Business Inventories MoM (Sep) | Medium | — | — | 0.4% |
| 2:25 PM | Fed Williams Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 4:30 PM | API Crude Oil Stock Change (Nov/13) | Medium | — | — | 9 |
Wednesday, Nov 18
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 AM | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Nov/13) | Medium | — | — | 7.21% |
| 8:30 AM | Housing Starts (Oct) | Medium | — | 1.23M | 1.22M |
| 8:30 AM | Housing Starts MoM (Oct) | Medium | — | — | −5.2% |
| 10:00 AM | Pending Home Sales MoM (Oct) | Medium | — | — | −7.3% |
| 10:00 AM | Pending Home Sales YoY (Oct) | Medium | — | −6% | −11.3% |
| 10:30 AM | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Nov/13) | Medium | — | — | — |
| 10:30 AM | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Nov/13) | Medium | — | — | — |
| 1:00 PM | 20-Year Bond Auction | Medium | — | — | 5.47% |
| 2:00 PM | FOMC Minutes | High | — | — | — |
| 2:30 PM | Fed Williams Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
| 4:00 PM | Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Sep) | Medium | — | — | 279.2B |
| 4:15 PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
Thursday, Nov 19
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov/07) | High | — | 1,725 | 1,697 |
| 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims (Nov/14) | High | — | 200K | 200K |
| 8:30 AM | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Nov/14) | High | — | 192K | 195.25K |
| 8:30 AM | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) | Medium | — | 19 | 20.9 |
| 8:50 AM | Fed Hammack Speech | Medium | — | — | — |
Monday, Nov 23
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct) | Medium | — | — | 0.07 |
| 9:45 AM | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) | High | — | — | 54.9 Points |
| 9:45 AM | S&P Global Services PMI (Nov) | High | — | — | 56.1 Points |
| 9:45 AM | S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov) | Medium | — | — | 55.9 Points |
Tuesday, Nov 24
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:00 AM | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (Sep) | Medium | — | 2.9% | 2.7% |
| 10:00 AM | CB Consumer Confidence (Nov) | High | — | — | 91.7 |
| 4:30 PM | API Crude Oil Stock Change (Nov/20) | Medium | — | — | — |
Wednesday, Nov 25
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 AM | MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Nov/20) | Medium | — | — | — |
| 8:00 AM | Building Permits MoM (Oct) | Medium | — | — | −0.4% |
| 8:30 AM | Continuing Jobless Claims (Nov/14) | High | — | — | — |
| 8:30 AM | Core PCE Price Index MoM (Oct) | High | — | — | 0.3% |
| 8:30 AM | Core PCE Price Index YoY (Oct) | High | — | — | 3.1% |
| 8:30 AM | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM (Oct) | High | — | — | 2.3% |
| 8:30 AM | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Oct) | High | — | — | 0.5% |
| 8:30 AM | Durable Goods Orders MoM (Oct) | High | — | — | 1.8% |
| 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims (Nov/21) | High | — | — | — |
| 8:30 AM | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Nov/21) | High | — | — | — |
| 8:30 AM | Personal Income MoM (Oct) | High | — | — | 0.2% |
| 8:30 AM | Corporate Profits QoQ (Q3) | Medium | — | — | 7.7% |
| 8:30 AM | PCE Price Index MoM (Oct) | Medium | — | — | 0.5% |
| 8:30 AM | PCE Price Index YoY (Oct) | Medium | — | — | 3.6% |
| 10:00 AM | New Home Sales (Oct) | High | — | — | 0.68K |
| 10:00 AM | New Home Sales MoM (Oct) | High | — | — | −0.6% |
| 10:30 AM | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Nov/20) | Medium | — | — | — |
| 10:30 AM | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Nov/20) | Medium | — | — | — |
| 2:00 PM | Beige Book | Medium | — | — | — |
Friday, Nov 27
| Time | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Goods Trade Balance (Oct) | Medium | — | — | −135.08B |
| 8:30 AM | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM (Oct) | Medium | — | — | — |
| 8:30 AM | Wholesale Inventories MoM (Oct) | Medium | — | — | — |
Times are US Eastern. Forecasts are consensus estimates where available.