Lam Research Corporation LRCX

On our way to high 90s

Monday, we should be back at $60

Been dumping mediocre stocks to get ready to load up into $LRCX. Too good to stay down, but can’t fight the downward push of Mr. Market

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Ya no kidding $800 before split

$LRCX ? PRICE UPGRADE

LAM RESEARCH $LRCX price-target raised to $1,100 at JPMorgan:

"Lam delivered strong Jun-Qtr revenue/margins/EPS results and in-line Sept-Qtr guidance (conservative in our view) as equipment spending fundamentals are set to grow in the 2H of the year and into CY25. CY24 WFE outlook was increased slightly (WFE up mid-single digits %) versus prior view of up low/mid single-digits% and LRCX’s business profile is also better on slight improvements on China spending.

We believe the team will outpace overall WFE growth this year (systems business up 15-17% Y/Y and services up 5%) given its strong share in NAND/DRAM, growing share in advanced foundry/logic, and contributions from new opportunities such as advanced packaging/HBM and gate-all-around. In addition to a slightly better industry WFE outlook, we believe the mgmt. team is gaining incremental confidence/backlog visibility on a stronger growth outlook next year as they are seeing utilization improvements in NAND/DRAM (up Q/Q again after double-digits % growth in the March-qtr).

The team is seeing strong demand for HBM DRAM and they are set to drive greater than $1B+ in advanced pkg/HBM revs this year given their leadership in TSV and copper plating, and on-track to drive $1B+ in revenues from a strong position in GAA (selective etch/ALD/pattering). The team reiterated a higher R&D spending profile in CY24 as they look to intercept multiple new technology inflections in memory (HBM) and foundry /logic (GAA, backside power delivery, dry EUV resist, 2.5D packaging) over the next few years.

The team remains confident on driving higher levels of through-cycle earnings power going forward especially as its forward revenue growth profile will include a higher mix of lower cost / variable manufacturing profile with its new Malaysia factory (already starting to load) which will drive continued GM upside in our view. We are adjusting our CY24 estimates, introducing CY25 estimates and establishing a CY25 PT of $1100 (vs. our prior PT of $950). We reiterate our OW rating on LRCX."

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It would be sacrilege to ever sell shares of Lam. Have never and will never.