Sasol Limited SSL

Price target 20$ by this month

Wow that dropped fast

I almost sold my 7.5 call at close. Thank god order didn’t go through.

General commit: While COVID19 Is doing it’s damage across almost all sectors of the market, we are also heading towards hurricane season. Food, water, everyday necessities and shelter will be stretched. Be prepared both at home and market opportunities, long and shorts. Otherwise, sit on cash.

Oil and Sasol: Majority of Sasol Fuel sale is in South Africa. The country is still in shut down. Global Oil price may go up, demand in SA still down. AND Sasol fiscal year ends on June 30th. Turbulence coming still before Sasol LCCP go full operation after June.

Micheal,
Let’s say: you only have one sleeve of Oreo left. In order to get more Oreos from mom, As a whole, you and your brothers and sisters must perform chores independently to earn more Oreos. Though you guys all want more cookies, you can not trust your siblings to do their own chores. Will you eat your last sleeve of Oreo or wait to see what happens?
In my humble opinion, uncertainty to commit cash to the market.

Only concern is Sasol’s operating cash position. They need cash to survive the short term challenges. However, with LCCP completing so soon, it’s not hard to find a partner who wants to be in the Base Chemical market but does not want the pain of building a new chemical plant.

There is no reason at this time for Sasol to make big move except for daily market volatility. Though Sasol is 35% of fuel provider in SA, it is a small oil player internationally. Sasol’s future is in Base Chemicals. Stock will make fundamental moves relate to the bottom line of the company after June when all units of LCCP ($12.8B) are in operation. Day trade this on the dip, otherwise hold on for mid-long term. I am in 60k shares at $1.8. I will hold for a while. This is my take after working 7 years for Sasol both in SA and in LCCP. The development has been in the plans for years, just did not expect the escalating cost of LCCP AND perfect storm of crude & Covid-19 to make stock price so accessible. Good luck.

LCCP fully operational in June. All remaining units in commissioning stage at this time. Sasol new fiscal year starts July first. New chapter with everything now in motion.

Hold your $SSL if you are down. In June, all units will be operational at Lake Charles. World demand will increase, stock will make a major move.