Glossary
Consensus Estimate
The average of analysts' forecasts for a company's earnings or revenue, the benchmark results are judged against.
On this page
A consensus estimate is the average (or median) of the forecasts that the analysts covering a company have published for a figure such as quarterly earnings per share or revenue. It is the number the market treats as "expected", so when a company reports, the headline is rarely the result itself but how it compared with consensus.
How it is built
Data providers collect the latest forecast from each Sell side analyst who covers the stock and combine them. Two providers can show slightly different consensus numbers for the same quarter because they track different analyst panels, drop stale estimates at different ages, or use a median instead of a mean.
The spread of forecasts matters as much as the average. A tight range means analysts broadly agree; a wide one means the outcome is genuinely uncertain and a large surprise in either direction is more likely.
What to watch for
- Estimates move. Consensus for a quarter often drifts lower in the weeks before the report, partly because companies steer analysts through Earnings guidance. A "beat" against a lowered bar is common.
- The whisper number. Traders sometimes expect more than the published consensus, so a small beat can still be met with a falling share price.
- Which earnings? Most consensus EPS figures are on an adjusted basis, so compare them with the company's adjusted number, not its GAAP result.
- Thin coverage. For small companies with two or three analysts, one forecast can swing the average.