Michael Burry Asks Whether Anthropic’s Partners Are Polishing Its IPO Numbers

Legendary investor Michael Burry is questioning whether the cloud giants behind Anthropic PBC are helping the AI company look better ahead of its initial public offering.

In a Substack posted Wednesday, reviewing Anthropic’s amended S-1 filing, Burry zeroed in on a steep decline in one expense line. Sales, marketing and partnership expenses fell to 14% of revenue in the third quarter, down from 19% in the second quarter and 22% in the first.

The improvement flatters Anthropic’s margins. Burry wants investors to look closely at where it came from.

Benzinga reached out to Anthropic for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

The Expense Line Shrinks

Anthropic relies on its hyperscaler partners to sell its models through their cloud marketplaces. The partners collect the revenue, keep a cut and pass the remainder to Anthropic. 

According to Burry, sales through those channels made up 48% of Anthropic’s revenue in the first half of 2026 before slipping to near 40% in the third quarter.

The amended filing attributes the expense decline to two factors. The drop was "primarily driven by a decrease in revenue generated from sales through channel partners as a percentage of total revenue and changes in the terms of our channel partner distribution arrangements," the S-1/A states.

The second half of the explanation caught Burry’s attention.

"It just so happens the S-1/A provided the first suggestion the channel partner distribution arrangements are negotiable," he wrote.

Burry then posed the question directly. "Could it be Anthropic’s magnificent partners are helping Anthropic dress up results for the IPO? Yes, it could be. Every little bit helps."

He titled the section "A Pumpkin for a Carriage," a Cinderella reference to a pumpkin turned into a carriage only until midnight.

"At the very least, investors should be aware that suppressing sales and marketing expense growth pre-IPO is one of the more venerable tricks in a very dirty old book," Burry wrote.

Everyone Wants a Strong Debut

The partners in question have deep financial ties to Anthropic. According to Burry’s review of the filing, Anthropic holds a $110 billion compute contract with Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and a $121.3 billion compute agreement with Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google. A separate contract with Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) totals $44.9 billion.

Several partners also double as financiers. Anthropic lists up to $77 billion in available financing capacity from strategic partners, including $20 billion from Google, $15 billion in undrawn Amazon convertible notes and $42 billion from Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO).

Burry noted Amazon’s existing Anthropic convertible notes were carried at $130.5 billion on Sept. 30, up from $108 billion at June 30.

The web of money extends further. In October, Broadcom assigned part of its Anthropic equipment lease to a newly formed special purpose financing entity, according to the filing. Burry believes insurers tied to Apollo Global Management Inc. (NYSE:APO) and to Blackstone Inc. (NYSE:BX) help fund those structures. 

He compared them to arrangements he previously traced among SpaceX’s xAI, Nvidia and Apollo.

Companies with so much riding on Anthropic have clear reasons to want a strong debut. Still, Burry did not present evidence of any arrangement aimed at the IPO. He framed the issue as a possibility rather than a finding.

A Trillion-Dollar Bet

The stakes are large. Anthropic disclosed approximately $895.4 billion in aggregate committed spend in the amendment. Burry estimates the total tops $1 trillion once Google TPU capacity and contracts with Advanced Micro Devices, which sit outside the filed figure, are included.

The expense improvement arrived during a rougher quarter elsewhere on the income statement. Third-quarter revenue rose 46.7% sequentially to $16.96 billion, a sharp slowdown from growth of 132% and 144% in the prior two quarters. Compute and infrastructure expense jumped 77.5% and reached 58% of revenue, up from 48%.

Lower partner costs helped offset some of the pressure. Without the revised terms, Anthropic’s margin picture heading into the roadshow could look weaker.

Burry closed his post by stating he has no plans to pursue Anthropic shares and does not expect to become a shareholder anytime soon.

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