Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are pointing to a broadly lower open early Wednesday as Wall Street digests early midterm election results showing key Democratic Senate victories and a shifting geopolitical landscape.

The Polymarket traders, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, have turned heavily bearish for the Nov. 4 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 4?” contract currently reflects a 22% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing negative equity futures against fluctuating energy markets and a packed economic docket:

• Negative Index Futures: A tech-led pullback is dragging major benchmarks into the red. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.11%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.75%, Dow Jones futures slipped 0.55%, and Russell 2000 futures declined 0.47%.

• Geopolitics & Oil: President Donald Trump signaled that the U.S. may not need another immediate military strike against Iran, stating, “We seem to be getting everything we want,” though he emphasized the military remains “locked and loaded.” Meanwhile, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) vowed that Democrats will stop funding the Iran offensive, citing the need to lower domestic energy and food costs. Energy markets ticked slightly higher on the mixed signals; Brent crude rose 0.69% to $104.32 a barrel, while WTI crude climbed 0.48% to $96.55 a barrel.

• Earnings & Eco Data: Wednesday’s economic slate features October’s ADP national employment report and September’s U.S. trade balance at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by U.S. services PMI and ISM services PMI data starting at 9:45 a.m. ET. The corporate calendar is headlined by Arm Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:ARM), McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE:MCD), Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO), Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM), and Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER).

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee believes the recent tech stock pullback has concluded, stating, “I think we are at the bottom.” Lee maintains his target for the S&P 500 to finish the year above 8,200, emphasizing that the underlying market for AI remains very tight and demand is resilient.

Lee identified the midterm elections as a crucial “clearing event” for the market. While prediction markets and polls heavily favored a Democratic sweep, early results confirming Democratic Senate victories in Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia align with those expectations. Lee noted that resolving this political uncertainty often helps sidelined cash re-enter the market, allowing equities to climb the proverbial “wall of worry” into a strong year-end finish.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Nov. 3 Polymarket contract resolved “Up.” The contract recorded $47,910 in total trading volume.

On Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed mixed. SPY rose 0.30% to $754.35, while QQQ advanced 0.62% to $685.28. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.44% lower at $517.06.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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