Gary Black Has a Warning for Tesla Bulls Betting on Robotaxi Dominance: Same ‘Delusional Thinking’ That Underestimated Chinese EV Rivals

Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund, challenged Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) bulls predicting uncontested robotaxi dominance, warning that investors risk repeating their 2020-2021 mistake, when they underestimated Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers.

Black Warns Tesla Bulls Against Complacency

Responding to Tesla enthusiast Dillon Loomis on X, Black wrote, "I don’t disagree with anything you say except your implicit view that there is no autonomous competition." He added, "This is the same delusional thinking among $TSLA bulls from 2020-2021."

I don’t disagree with anything you say except your implicit view that there is no autonomous competition. This is the same delusional thinking among $TSLA bulls from 2020-2021 when they insisted no one would be able to compete with TSLA in EV manufactured cost or scale, but…

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 27, 2026

Black recalled how investors insisted competitors could never match Tesla’s manufacturing costs or scale, only to be proven wrong as Chinese manufacturers caught up between 2023 and 2025.

His argument follows earlier warnings that Tesla could squander its autonomous-driving advantage. Black pointed to Tesla’s earlier experience with Chinese EV competition as a warning, noting that BYD Co. Ltd. (OTC:BYDDY) overtook Tesla in global battery-electric vehicle sales in 2025 after years of rapid expansion.

Waymo And Chinese Rivals Threaten Valuation

"The same is true now: Waymo, BIDU, Pony.ai and others working with NVDA will be able to compete with TSLA in unsupervised autonomy," Black wrote.

He warned that competition "will pressure TSLA’s current irrational 2026 P/E of 220x vs +45% long-term EPS growth."

Black previously argued that autonomous driving could become a commodity, limiting Tesla’s ability to sustain premium valuations.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ:BIDU) began testing robotaxis in London ahead of a planned driverless launch in 2027. Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Waymo also plans to introduce fully driverless rides there.

Tesla Expands Robotaxis Despite Competitive Concerns

Loomis argued that Tesla’s robotaxi network could eventually grow from thousands to hundreds of thousands of vehicles, declaring, "The era of autonomy is here."

Tesla reported nearly two million cumulative unsupervised robotaxi miles through September and began deploying Cybercabs in Austin. Its service now spans six American cities.

However, Black has repeatedly questioned whether Tesla’s progress justifies its valuation, even while acknowledging its achievements in unsupervised autonomy.

Price Action: Tesla shares rose 0.87% to $411.00 during pre-market trading on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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