Gary Black Says Tesla Is Losing EV Share to ‘No-Name’ Rivals Despite ‘Huge First-Mover Advantage’—Warns TSLA Needs Better Marketing

Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC said on Saturday that Elon Musk-led automaker Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is losing its dominance of the U.S. EV market to its competitors, reiterating calls for a stronger marketing and communications strategy.

Tesla’s Market Share Decline Does Not Justify High Valuation

The investor took to X, responding to user @TheTeslaBull, who was replying to an earlier post by Black warning Tesla supporters not to underestimate Chinese automakers. The user asked the investor to name good EVs that were on sale in the U.S. besides Tesla vehicles.

Black said that it was not “the relevant question,” instead asking, “how does TSLA stop its EV US share decline,” which was at 80% since 2020 to roughly 52% today, “to justify its 200x+ P/E multiple when U.S. EV share keeps declining?” He asked.

The investor then pointed to automakers like Hyundai Motor Co. Ltd. (OTC:HYMLF), Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE:TM), as well as General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) and Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) being among the biggest gainers in the segment.

That’s not the relevant question. The relevant question is how does TSLA stop its EV US share decline (from 80% in 2020 to 52% today) to justify its 200x+ P/E multiple when U.S. EV share keeps declining? Biggest gainers:

Hyundai loniq 5

Toyota bz

Chevrolet Equinox EV…

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 31, 2026

Tesla Losing Market Share to ‘No-Name’ Companies, Says Gary Black

The investor expanded upon his views on Tesla’s market share in the same thread, saying that despite its “huge first movers’ advantage and a huge cost/scale advantage,” Tesla was losing its command over the sector to “no-name manufacturers with no brand equity in EVs.”

Black added that if companies like Hyundai and Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE:HMC) gain EV market share, Tesla’s position at the top becomes threatened. “Absent proactive marketing, this deterioration in share will continue, which makes it impossible mathematically to justify TSLA’s multiple,” the investor said.

The investor then lamented Tesla bulls’ rigid views. “They just don’t get the relationship between volume growth and P/E [Price-Earnings ratio],” Black said.

My point is that even with a huge first movers’ advantage and a huge cost/scale advantage, TSLA is losing EV share in the U.S. to no-name manufacturers with no brand equity in EVs.. If Hyundai, Honda, and Kia can gain EV share, TSLA will continue to lose share as others enter…

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 31, 2026

Rivian CEO Says Autonomy Will Drive Market Share

Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) CEO RJ Scaringe said that while autonomous driving technology does not constitute a major part of the customers’ purchase decision at present, the technology will represent “a big shift in the overall topology of the auto industry” and that it would become a “big driver of market share.”

Rivian also said that it plans to introduce Level 4 autonomous driving technology on its vehicles by 2028, touting its Point to Point Supervised self-driving service.

Jim Farley’s Touts Ford Fathom

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) CEO, during the automaker’s Q3 2026 earnings call last week, said that the upcoming Fathom all-electric pickup truck, set to be offered at a Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) of $28,350, exceeded his expectations.

The CEO also touted the pickup truck having the ability to power owners’ homes without the need for a wall-mounted inverter unit with the pickup truck through its bidirectional power flow technology.

Price Action: TSLA shares were up 0.22% to $400.67 during overnight trading.

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