Micron, SanDisk Stocks Remain Far Below Highs Despite ‘Exploding’ Memory Profits — Chamath Palihapitiya Asks Why
Rishabh Mishra 1 day ago
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Chamath Palihapitiya questions why Micron and SanDisk remain below highs despite surging memory profits and margins.
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) and SanDisk Corp. (NASDAQ:SNDK) remain well below their 2026 highs even as memory-industry profits climb, prompting Social Capital founder Chamath Palihapitiya to question whether memory is becoming a more durable "franchise" or heading for another boom-and-bust commodity cycle.
Palihapitiya wrote that "memory chip profits are exploding," while questioning why the stocks remain below their highs.
Profits Surge, Stocks Lag
Palihapitiya said Micron’s fiscal 2026 revenue reached $133.2 billion, up 256% from $37.4 billion in fiscal 2025, a faster one-year increase than Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) posted in any recent year.
A Social Capital chart shared with the post shows Micron’s fiscal 2026 GAAP gross margin at 80.7%, compared with negative 9% in fiscal 2023. Palihapitiya said memory makers have become major beneficiaries of the superintelligence, or SI, boom.
The accompanying stock-performance chart shows Micron 23% below its 2026 high as of the Oct. 29 close and SanDisk 43% below its high. Social Capital showed SK Hynix 48% below its high, Samsung 36% lower, and Kioxia 60% lower.
— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) October 29, 2026
Cycle Or Franchise?
Palihapitiya said memory has historically been a commodity business in which profits were difficult to protect, while arguing that successive industry eras may be changing the economics.
He also pointed to a familiar risk: producers are using record cash generation to expand capacity, with new factories scheduled from 2027 through 2029. Palihapitiya said China’s CXMT is also expanding, citing Counterpoint data showing its global DRAM revenue share rising from 4% to 10% in a year.
That leaves what Palihapitiya framed as the central question: is memory becoming a "franchise," or is the industry positioned for another boom-and-bust cycle?
What Could End The Boom
Palihapitiya cautioned that another downturn would not require SI demand to stop growing. He said the prior two memory downturns began when customers worked through accumulated inventory, causing orders to pause while suppliers faced lower prices and shipments.
With customers now putting up billions of dollars in deposits to secure supply, Palihapitiya said whether memory becomes a franchise or returns to a commodity cycle is the question that determines the industry’s trajectory.
How Have Memory Stocks Performed?
| Stocks | 1-Month | 6-Months | YTD | 1-Year | 5-Years |
| MU | -12.28% | 80.65% | 227.34% | 317.07% | 1,252.05 |
| SNDK | -23.56% | 21.30% | 460.30% | 579.22% | 3529.06% |
| Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ:STX) | -24.06% | 3.98% | 154.36% | 161.05% | 686.43% |
| SK Hynix Inc. ADR (NASDAQ:SKHY) | -11.98% | -3.52% (Since Listing In July ’26) | – | – | – |
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Tada Images via Shutterstock