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Jeff

125 posts

Posts (125)

Jeff QS 1 hour ago #1

$QS. Yesterday’s PR to use my daughter’s generation’s term “gave me the ick!” I have been a buyer/contract negotiator for more than 30 years and have had to sift through decades of vendor’s pitches and you get to a point where you can “feel” when they are leading you on. Based on the Q3 ER and 11/11 symposium here’s how I “feel” about QS current circumstances:
It feels like PowerCo is pulling away from QS (whether it is QS fault or VW/PowerCo economics or automobile macroeconomics, who knows).
It feels like although QS has a great product initially in QSE-5 and are starting the pass through the valley of death for the move from lab to mass production, no one is interested in making the investment for mass production. In the Muehlbauer PR for the ER, although QS wants to build a 100 MWh production line, they glossed over who was going to pay for it. To date there is no disclosed funding. It feels like they truly can’t judge their ability to mass-produce these batteries until they hit one million pieces and their pilot line can’t be dedicated to that effort.
It feels like no auto manufacturer is interested in QS current format of cell and so, in a desperate attempt to show they can do sulfide batteries, we have yesterday’s PR. They seem to shoehorn some charging speed and battery life at low temps to make them look good, but everyone can see through the data. This tech could be years away (emphasis on could as the presented data isn’t that great.)

My expectation at this point would be that we would see PRs that are partner licensing as they approach mass production or vehicle of some sort with real-life data on performance.

I have sold half my shares this morning and took my loss. I will sell the remaining in 2027 so my losses offset other gains.

Good luck QS

Jeff QS 3 weeks ago #3

$QS Of course I bought on the dip. Are you kidding me? These guys are coming out of the valley of death from lab to production as tech stocks go. They have a path to mass production.

Jeff QS 3 weeks ago #4

$QS, I’m really not expecting much in today’s ER. Dr. Luca Parretti, the Vice President of Manufacturing Engineering at QuantumScape said they plan to double production by the EOY, so why should we expect anything but progress towards that goal. In addition he said they won’t really know what they have until they can produce a million units. So I expect they are trying to get to a million units.

I suspect that they are putting efforts into selling PowerBlock b/c they are ramping up production speeds and are starting to accumulate a lot of QSE-5 batteries which exceed the demand for samples. We are already seeing signs through permits that they are expanding their ability for larger capacity.

If they say they’ve already achieved doubling of production, then things are going better than expected and we are on our way to mass production.

If the shorts batter the stock because it is what should be expected (progress towards doubling), then I’m buying more.

Jeff QS 6 months ago #6

$QS IMO Q3 ER in November is when the real important progress will be presented. By then QS should be able to demonstrate mass production at scale. If anything positive or earth shattering happens sooner, so be it. I wouldn’t be sad about it. It’s clear Corning is all in and isn’t afraid to put their reputation behind what they are delivering. Murata, what say you? I’m fine with the day traders battling back and forth until then. I’ll just take advantage of the lows when it works for me.

Jeff QS 7 months ago #10

$QS Is Tim Holme’s X post about military power generation and the future of on-shoring battery mfg a hint about how QS is involved with the military? Essentially the military is saying they will pay for the most expensive part of ramping up battery production (example: first 100,000 cells mfg at a higher cost) in order to help get domestic battery mfg off the ground? Hmmm. I’m sure he didn’t post it for no reason at all. Maybe VW won’t be the first paying customer.