Day Gain | ||
Gain | ||
Market Val | ||
Costs | ||
Cash | ||
Portfolio | ||
Realized | ||
Dividend |
CNBC Daily Open: S&P retreats, yen surges, Tesla sinks | cnbc.com • |
Stock Market Shift: Tesla, Nvidia Lead Nasdaq Sell-Off As Small Caps Soar; JPMorgan Earnings Due | news.google.com • |
Tesla launches new Model 3 long-range variant at $42,490, website shows | reuters.com • |
Tesla’s Q2 Deliveries Strong, But What’s To Come? | news.google.com • |
NVIDIA and Tesla Lead $599 Billion Magnificent 7 Sell-Off in Wednesday Trading | 247wallst.com • |
Tesla pushes back big robotaxi unveiling | news.google.com • |
Date | For | Estimate | Reported | Surprise | surprise % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-07-23 | 2024-06 | 0.62 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2024-04-23 | 2024-03 | 0.46 | 0.45 | -0.01 | -2.17% |
2024-01-24 | 2023-12 | 0.75 | 0.71 | -0.04 | -5.33% |
2023-10-18 | 2023-09 | 0.72 | 0.66 | -0.06 | -8.33% |
2023-07-19 | 2023-06 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.08 | 9.64% |
2023-04-19 | 2023-03 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.02 | 2.41% |
Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-10-18 | Wells Fargo | Upgrade | Equal-Weight | Equal-Weight |
2023-10-18 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Overweight | Overweight |
2023-10-18 | Wedbush | Upgrade | Outperform | Outperform |
2023-10-18 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Neutral | Neutral |
2023-10-18 | Roth MKM | Upgrade | Neutral | Neutral |
2023-10-18 | Guggenheim | Upgrade | Sell | Sell |
Date | Name | Relation | Quantity | Description |
---|---|---|---|---|
2024-03-31 | BAGLINO ANDREW D | Officer | 31.23K | Sale |
2024-05-05 | DENHOLM ROBYN M | Director | 15.00K | Sale |
2021-10-26 | EHRENPREIS IRA MATTHEW | Director | 205.73K | Sale |
2023-08-03 | KIRKHORN ZACHARY | Chief Financial Officer | 193.79K | Sale |
2024-06-02 | MURDOCH JAMES RUPERT | Director | 407.30K | Conversion of Exercise of derivative security |
2023-03-07 | MUSK ELON REEVE | Chief Executive Officer | 0.00 | Conversion of Exercise of derivative security |
Report Date | Organization | Position | Value | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-06-29 | Vanguard Group Inc | 222.49M | 58.24B | 7.01% |
2023-06-29 | Blackrock Inc. | 185.89M | 48.66B | 5.86% |
2023-06-29 | State Street Corporation | 104.12M | 27.25B | 3.28% |
2023-06-29 | Geode Capital Management, LLC | 51.66M | 13.52B | 1.63% |
2023-06-29 | Capital World Investors | 42.27M | 11.07B | 1.33% |
2023-06-29 | FMR, LLC | 28.77M | 7.53B | 0.91% |
Report Date | Organization | Position | Value | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-06-29 | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | 84.02M | 21.99B | 2.65% |
2023-06-29 | Vanguard 500 Index Fund | 64.14M | 16.79B | 2.02% |
2023-05-30 | Fidelity 500 Index Fund | 30.10M | 6.14B | 0.95% |
2023-08-30 | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 29.68M | 7.66B | 0.94% |
2023-08-30 | Invesco ETF Tr-Invesco QQQ Tr, Series 1 ETF | 25.05M | 6.46B | 0.79% |
2023-08-30 | iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | 25.20M | 6.50B | 0.79% |
Split | Date |
---|---|
3 : 1 | 2022-08-25 |
5 : 1 | 2020-08-31 |
-
How many more innocent people will die because of Elon musk ? We cannot allow this ever to happen anymore Elon musk should be in jail for the murder of innocent human lives
@tesla@elonmusk
#tesla $TSLA
@realDonaldTrump
·Could you imagine a self driving semi truck with all the heavy loads killing so many innocent people Tesla are murderers we can’t allow this ever to happen self driving vehicles are too dangerous for public roads
-
Bulls on Tuesday - Tesla's Autopilot software steered the vehicle into the triangular "gore area" at a motorway intersection, and accelerated into a concrete barrier.
-
Amazon is a different company. I worked for their corporate side and it’s just amazing . They have kiva robots, their fulfillment centers are huge and they are diversified in multiple money making schemes. Their next target is the investment of the “INTERNET OF THINGS”
-
Tesla Autopilot crash driver 'was playing video game - hey bulls the stock market isn’t a video game get out while you still have a hundred bucks left losers
-
-
I think realistically we're talking about something closer to $50, not $500, as a real value."
-
Fellow bulls unite we must take a stand and tell the bears they are stupid dum heads !
We will rise our stock back to 2000 by then end of the week stupid bears because Tesla can fart now and that is so cool like omg
-
I think realistically we're talking about something closer to $50, not $500, as a real value."
Ouch
-
-
September tends to be a weak month for stocks historically. In fact, according to LPL Financial, September has been the worst-performing month for markets, on average, since 1950. ... And October may flat out stink for markets, too. LPL Financial says the S&P 500 has dropped nearly 1% in election years dating back to 1950.
-
Because we don’t get to make money on dividends like smart investors we don’t have any extra money to cover this huge loss so now musk will pay us to build roads on mars hahahahah
-
Our mars rocket fuel will be eco friendly rocket fuel tho and once we get to mars here we will die we will drive ev there on all the roads there musk forces us to build
-
Once we get all the rocket ships built with Tesla money we will invest in the rocket fuel company because we are not EV companies we are mars colonists now
-
Don’t get bit bears team bulls are coming to buy up all of the shares in universe even the ones on mars too
-
I’m going to buy so many calls for this week of 600 700 800 2000 it’s going to the moon
-
-
This report shows investors of all types just how extreme the risk in TSLA is based on:
Overstated earnings from short-term regulatory credits
Overlooked, but huge, EV market share that incumbent automakers will take
Doing the math: the revenue, profit and production increases implied by the current valuation are highly unrealistic. Not even the most bullish analysts have forecasted the growth baked into the current price.
The Most Valuable Car Company in the World, or Most Overvalued?In July 2020, Tesla became the most valuable car company in the world when it eclipsed the market cap of Toyota Motors (TM).
Figure 1 compares the market share and market caps per car sold for Tesla, Toyota, Honda Motors (HMC), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU). Of the incumbent automakers, Toyota’s market cap per car sold is the highest at ~$19.7k. Tesla’s market cap per car sold over the TTM period is $880.2k, or more than 44 times higher than Toyota.
Is Tesla, with less than 1% of the global automotive market, worth that much more than Toyota, with ~12% of the market in 2019? Even if Tesla warrants this huge valuation premium now, how much upside is left from here?
Figure 1: Market Cap per Car Sold: Tesla vs. Peers – TTM
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Tesla Turns a Profit Selling Regulatory Credits, Not Vehicles
Tesla’s recently reported profits are based on sales of free regulatory credits to gasoline automakers, whose fleets, on average, don’t meet regulatory required emissions levels.
Tesla enjoys a 100% profit margin on these credits since the company gets them as a free byproduct of being an all-electric vehicle maker. In 2Q20 alone, Tesla sold $428 million in regulatory credits on its way to reporting GAAP net income of $104 million. When we remove these credits, Tesla’s GAAP net income would have been negative in each of the past three quarters, per Figure 2.
Figure 2: GAAP Profits with and Without Regulatory Credits: 3Q18 – 2Q20
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Selling credits isn’t a viable long-term strategy. As other firms ramp up production of EVs and earn more credits, they purchase less from Tesla. For example, Fiat Chrysler CEO Mike Manley noted in the firm’s 1Q19 earnings call that it expects to be compliant without the help of credits from Tesla by 2022. Without the profits from selling free regulatory credits, Tesla will have trouble increasing its already overstated profits.
Market Share Will Drop Precipitously as Incumbents Enter the EV Market
Tesla bulls tend to overlook the slow, but deliberate and large, entrance that incumbent automakers will make in the EV market. By 2025, these firms are expected to sell ~3.1 million EVs, which is significantly more than even the most optimistic estimates for Tesla sales in 2025. For comparison, Tesla sold ~368,000 cars in 2019 and expects to sell 500,000 in 2020.
Volkswagen plans to produce 1.5 million EVs in 2025.
General Motors plans to sell 1 million EVs by 2025.
Toyota plans to produce 500,000 EVs and ~5.3 million electrified vehicles (EVs and hybrids), or half its global sales in 2025.
Ford is expected to sell ~332,000 EVs in 2025.
Figure 3 illustrates how the incumbent automakers will dominate, relative to Tesla, the EV market by 2025. Projections for Tesla’s vehicle sales in 2025 vary widely: 2 million from the Trefis Team, 1.3 million from Clean Technica, and 413,000 from LMC Automotive. We have not found an estimate for Tesla sales that is not well below the incumbents expected EV sales of ~3.1 million EVs in 2025.Both Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi are expected to sell more cars, individually, than Tesla by 2025.
Figure 3: Past & Projected Electric Vehicle Sales by Manufacturer: 2018 & 2025
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and LMC Automotive, Clean Technica and Trefis Team
Unable to Match Incumbents’ Investment in EVs
After investing heavily in its operations for years, Tesla has reversed course, presumably to meet profit goals and reduce dependence on outside capital. Tesla’s capex in 2019 ($1.3 billion) represented just 62% of its depreciation, amortization, and impairment ($2.2 billion). In other words, net investment was -$827 million.
Over the TTM period, depreciation, amortization, and impairment remains higher than capex and net investment is -$429 million, per Figure 4.
Tesla is ramping down spending as competitors are ramping up.
-
This report shows investors of all types just how extreme the risk in TSLA is based on:
Overstated earnings from short-term regulatory credits
Overlooked, but huge, EV market share that incumbent automakers will take
Doing the math: the revenue, profit and production increases implied by the current valuation are highly unrealistic. Not even the most bullish analysts have forecasted the growth baked into the current price.
The Most Valuable Car Company in the World, or Most Overvalued?In July 2020, Tesla became the most valuable car company in the world when it eclipsed the market cap of Toyota Motors (TM).
Figure 1 compares the market share and market caps per car sold for Tesla, Toyota, Honda Motors (HMC), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU). Of the incumbent automakers, Toyota’s market cap per car sold is the highest at ~$19.7k. Tesla’s market cap per car sold over the TTM period is $880.2k, or more than 44 times higher than Toyota.
Is Tesla, with less than 1% of the global automotive market, worth that much more than Toyota, with ~12% of the market in 2019? Even if Tesla warrants this huge valuation premium now, how much upside is left from here?
Figure 1: Market Cap per Car Sold: Tesla vs. Peers – TTM
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Tesla Turns a Profit Selling Regulatory Credits, Not Vehicles
Tesla’s recently reported profits are based on sales of free regulatory credits to gasoline automakers, whose fleets, on average, don’t meet regulatory required emissions levels.
Tesla enjoys a 100% profit margin on these credits since the company gets them as a free byproduct of being an all-electric vehicle maker. In 2Q20 alone, Tesla sold $428 million in regulatory credits on its way to reporting GAAP net income of $104 million. When we remove these credits, Tesla’s GAAP net income would have been negative in each of the past three quarters, per Figure 2.
Figure 2: GAAP Profits with and Without Regulatory Credits: 3Q18 – 2Q20
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Selling credits isn’t a viable long-term strategy. As other firms ramp up production of EVs and earn more credits, they purchase less from Tesla. For example, Fiat Chrysler CEO Mike Manley noted in the firm’s 1Q19 earnings call that it expects to be compliant without the help of credits from Tesla by 2022. Without the profits from selling free regulatory credits, Tesla will have trouble increasing its already overstated profits.
Market Share Will Drop Precipitously as Incumbents Enter the EV Market
Tesla bulls tend to overlook the slow, but deliberate and large, entrance that incumbent automakers will make in the EV market. By 2025, these firms are expected to sell ~3.1 million EVs, which is significantly more than even the most optimistic estimates for Tesla sales in 2025. For comparison, Tesla sold ~368,000 cars in 2019 and expects to sell 500,000 in 2020.
Volkswagen plans to produce 1.5 million EVs in 2025.
General Motors plans to sell 1 million EVs by 2025.
Toyota plans to produce 500,000 EVs and ~5.3 million electrified vehicles (EVs and hybrids), or half its global sales in 2025.
Ford is expected to sell ~332,000 EVs in 2025.
Figure 3 illustrates how the incumbent automakers will dominate, relative to Tesla, the EV market by 2025. Projections for Tesla’s vehicle sales in 2025 vary widely: 2 million from the Trefis Team, 1.3 million from Clean Technica, and 413,000 from LMC Automotive. We have not found an estimate for Tesla sales that is not well below the incumbents expected EV sales of ~3.1 million EVs in 2025.Both Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi are expected to sell more cars, individually, than Tesla by 2025.
Figure 3: Past & Projected Electric Vehicle Sales by Manufacturer: 2018 & 2025
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and LMC Automotive, Clean Technica and Trefis Team
Unable to Match Incumbents’ Investment in EVs
After investing heavily in its operations for years, Tesla has reversed course, presumably to meet profit goals and reduce dependence on outside capital. Tesla’s capex in 2019 ($1.3 billion) represented just 62% of its depreciation, amortization, and impairment ($2.2 billion). In other words, net investment was -$827 million.
Over the TTM period, depreciation, amortization, and impairment remains higher than capex and net investment is -$429 million, per Figure 4.
Tesla is ramping down spending as competitors are ramping up.
-
I just don’t know if this reverse split is going to hurt Tesla but it’s better than being delisted
-
-
Tesla’s Q2 Deliveries Strong, But What’s To Come?
news.google.com • -
Tesla pushes back big robotaxi unveiling
news.google.com • -
Why Tesla Stock Skidded to an 8% Loss on Wednesday
news.google.com • -
Why Tesla Stock Skidded to an 8% Loss on Wednesday
news.google.com • -
Tesla walks back Robotaxi reveal, sending its stock plummeting
news.google.com • -
Tesla is pretty much a meme stock now
news.google.com • -
Tesla investors shouldn't fret a robotaxi delay: Analyst
news.google.com • -
Tesla Robotaxi Debut Reportedly Delayed, Sending Stock Tumbling
investopedia.com • -
3 Hype-Driven Stocks Destined for a Dramatic Fall
investorplace.com • -
Tesla Stock Tumbles On Reported Robotaxi Reveal Delay
news.google.com • -
Three Energy Stocks to Buy as the Summer Heat Cranks Up
investorplace.com • -
Tesla Plans to Delay Robotaxi Unveiling
youtube.com • -
Rivian Is Banking on the Anti-Tesla Crowd for VW Venture
youtube.com • -
Magnificent Seven Stocks To Buy And Watch
news.google.com • -
3 Cult-Like Stocks to Buy for Long-Term Gains
investorplace.com • -
TSLA Stock Plunges 6% as Tesla Delays Robotaxi Day
news.google.com • -
TSLA Stock Plunges 6% as Tesla Delays Robotaxi Day
investorplace.com • -
Uber, Lyft Jump After Report Of Tesla's Robotaxi Delay
news.google.com • -
Uber, Lyft Shares Rally As Tesla Stock Tumbles: What's Going On?
news.google.com • -
Tesla Robotaxi Debut Reportedly Delayed, Sending Stock Tumbling
news.google.com • -
Tesla delays robotaxi unveiling
youtube.com • -
Tesla tanks on Robotaxi delay
invezz.com • -
Tesla could benefit if Trump returns to the White House
businessinsider.com • -
Analyst reboots Tesla stock price target on energy demand
news.google.com • -
Tesla shares drop on Robotaxi Day postponement
proactiveinvestors.com • -
3 Stocks Poised for a Dramatic Plunge
investorplace.com • -
Tesla shares close down 8% after report of robotaxi unveiling delay
news.google.com • -
Tesla shares close down 8% after report of robotaxi unveiling delay
news.google.com • -
Tesla looks more like a meme stock, 'be careful': Strategist
news.google.com • -
7 ‘Buy and Never Sell' Stocks for the Next 20 Years
investorplace.com • -
Tesla's stock falls on reported Robotaxi delay
marketwatch.com • -
Tesla closes down 8.4% on report it will delay robotaxi unveiling
news.google.com • -
Tesla reportedly delays “robotaxi” event to October
techcrunch.com • -
Of Course Tesla Is A Meme Stock Now
news.google.com • -
Tesla's Robotaxi Day could hold key for $1trn valuation - Wedbush's Dan Ives
proactiveinvestors.com • -
Futures Fall Ahead Of Imminent CPI Report
news.google.com • -
Tesla's Energy Business Just Got A Valuation Hike
news.google.com • -
Nvidia Stock Set for a Record Close. Here's What's Driving the Move.
news.google.com • -
Here's why Tesla stock might crash in August
finbold.com • -
Here’s why Tesla stock might crash in August- Finance in Bold
news.google.com • -
Top 5 Consumer Stocks That Are Ticking Portfolio Bombs
benzinga.com • -
Top 5 Consumer Stocks That Are Ticking Portfolio Bombs
news.google.com • -
Tesla’s 11-Day Winning Run Prompts a Valuation Reality Check
news.google.com • -
Tesla: Up +62% From Our Prior Bullish Article- Seeking Alpha
news.google.com • -
5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens
news.google.com • -
3 Artificial Intelligence Stocks Flashing Danger Signs
investorplace.com • -
Why Exxon Is a Top Holding in This ‘Energy Transition’ Fund
news.google.com • -
What's Going on With Tesla Stock?
fool.com • -
What's Going on With Tesla Stock?
news.google.com • -
What's Going on With Tesla Stock?
news.google.com • -
July 2024 Sell Alert: 3 Overvalued Stocks to Offload Now
investorplace.com • -
Should You Buy Tesla Stock Before July 23?
fool.com • -
Should You Buy Tesla Stock Before July 23?
news.google.com • -
Should You Buy Tesla Stock Before July 23?
news.google.com • -
Tesla Stock Meme Mania: Why the Music Could Soon Stop
news.google.com • -
Magnificent 7 Laggard: Why Tesla Stock May Stall Despite Recent Gains
investorplace.com • -
Magnificent 7 Laggard: Why Tesla Stock May Stall Despite Recent Gains
news.google.com •