![](/assets/images/down.png)
![](/assets/images/up.png)
Day Gain | ||
Gain | ||
Market Val | ||
Costs | ||
Cash | ||
Portfolio | ||
Realized | ||
Dividend |
All Eyes on Tesla Stock Ahead of Q2 Deliveries Report — Here's What Daniel Ives Expects- TipRanks | news.google.com • |
Tesla's Stock Climbs As Wells Fargo Sees Potential Gains | news.google.com • |
Trade Tracker: Bill Baruch buys more Tesla despite 'underweight' rating at Wells Fargo | youtube.com • |
Tesla stock jumps and some think it's because of this Elon Musk move | news.google.com • |
Tesla stock jumps and some think it’s because of this Elon Musk move | news.google.com • |
Tesla rises ahead of Q2 deliveries report | reuters.com • |
Date | For | Estimate | Reported | Surprise | surprise % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-07-17 | 2024-06 | 0.6 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2024-04-23 | 2024-03 | 0.46 | 0.45 | -0.01 | -2.17% |
2024-01-24 | 2023-12 | 0.75 | 0.71 | -0.04 | -5.33% |
2023-10-18 | 2023-09 | 0.72 | 0.66 | -0.06 | -8.33% |
2023-07-19 | 2023-06 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.08 | 9.64% |
2023-04-19 | 2023-03 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.02 | 2.41% |
Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-10-18 | Wells Fargo | Upgrade | Equal-Weight | Equal-Weight |
2023-10-18 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Overweight | Overweight |
2023-10-18 | Wedbush | Upgrade | Outperform | Outperform |
2023-10-18 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Neutral | Neutral |
2023-10-18 | Roth MKM | Upgrade | Neutral | Neutral |
2023-10-18 | Guggenheim | Upgrade | Sell | Sell |
Date | Name | Relation | Quantity | Description |
---|---|---|---|---|
2024-03-31 | BAGLINO ANDREW D | Officer | 31.23K | Sale |
2024-05-05 | DENHOLM ROBYN M | Director | 15.00K | Sale |
2021-10-26 | EHRENPREIS IRA MATTHEW | Director | 205.73K | Sale |
2023-08-03 | KIRKHORN ZACHARY | Chief Financial Officer | 193.79K | Sale |
2024-06-02 | MURDOCH JAMES RUPERT | Director | 407.30K | Conversion of Exercise of derivative security |
2023-03-07 | MUSK ELON REEVE | Chief Executive Officer | 0.00 | Conversion of Exercise of derivative security |
Report Date | Organization | Position | Value | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-06-29 | Vanguard Group Inc | 222.49M | 58.24B | 7.01% |
2023-06-29 | Blackrock Inc. | 185.89M | 48.66B | 5.86% |
2023-06-29 | State Street Corporation | 104.12M | 27.25B | 3.28% |
2023-06-29 | Geode Capital Management, LLC | 51.66M | 13.52B | 1.63% |
2023-06-29 | Capital World Investors | 42.27M | 11.07B | 1.33% |
2023-06-29 | FMR, LLC | 28.77M | 7.53B | 0.91% |
Report Date | Organization | Position | Value | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-06-29 | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | 84.02M | 21.99B | 2.65% |
2023-06-29 | Vanguard 500 Index Fund | 64.14M | 16.79B | 2.02% |
2023-05-30 | Fidelity 500 Index Fund | 30.10M | 6.14B | 0.95% |
2023-08-30 | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 29.68M | 7.66B | 0.94% |
2023-08-30 | Invesco ETF Tr-Invesco QQQ Tr, Series 1 ETF | 25.05M | 6.46B | 0.79% |
2023-08-30 | iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | 25.20M | 6.50B | 0.79% |
Split | Date |
---|---|
3 : 1 | 2022-08-25 |
5 : 1 | 2020-08-31 |
-
Amazon is a different company. I worked for their corporate side and it’s just amazing . They have kiva robots, their fulfillment centers are huge and they are diversified in multiple money making schemes. Their next target is the investment of the “INTERNET OF THINGS”
-
Tesla Autopilot crash driver 'was playing video game - hey bulls the stock market isn’t a video game get out while you still have a hundred bucks left losers
-
-
I think realistically we're talking about something closer to $50, not $500, as a real value."
-
Fellow bulls unite we must take a stand and tell the bears they are stupid dum heads !
We will rise our stock back to 2000 by then end of the week stupid bears because Tesla can fart now and that is so cool like omg
-
I think realistically we're talking about something closer to $50, not $500, as a real value."
Ouch
-
-
September tends to be a weak month for stocks historically. In fact, according to LPL Financial, September has been the worst-performing month for markets, on average, since 1950. ... And October may flat out stink for markets, too. LPL Financial says the S&P 500 has dropped nearly 1% in election years dating back to 1950.
-
Because we don’t get to make money on dividends like smart investors we don’t have any extra money to cover this huge loss so now musk will pay us to build roads on mars hahahahah
-
Our mars rocket fuel will be eco friendly rocket fuel tho and once we get to mars here we will die we will drive ev there on all the roads there musk forces us to build
-
Once we get all the rocket ships built with Tesla money we will invest in the rocket fuel company because we are not EV companies we are mars colonists now
-
Don’t get bit bears team bulls are coming to buy up all of the shares in universe even the ones on mars too
-
I’m going to buy so many calls for this week of 600 700 800 2000 it’s going to the moon
-
-
This report shows investors of all types just how extreme the risk in TSLA is based on:
Overstated earnings from short-term regulatory credits
Overlooked, but huge, EV market share that incumbent automakers will take
Doing the math: the revenue, profit and production increases implied by the current valuation are highly unrealistic. Not even the most bullish analysts have forecasted the growth baked into the current price.
The Most Valuable Car Company in the World, or Most Overvalued?In July 2020, Tesla became the most valuable car company in the world when it eclipsed the market cap of Toyota Motors (TM).
Figure 1 compares the market share and market caps per car sold for Tesla, Toyota, Honda Motors (HMC), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU). Of the incumbent automakers, Toyota’s market cap per car sold is the highest at ~$19.7k. Tesla’s market cap per car sold over the TTM period is $880.2k, or more than 44 times higher than Toyota.
Is Tesla, with less than 1% of the global automotive market, worth that much more than Toyota, with ~12% of the market in 2019? Even if Tesla warrants this huge valuation premium now, how much upside is left from here?
Figure 1: Market Cap per Car Sold: Tesla vs. Peers – TTM
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Tesla Turns a Profit Selling Regulatory Credits, Not Vehicles
Tesla’s recently reported profits are based on sales of free regulatory credits to gasoline automakers, whose fleets, on average, don’t meet regulatory required emissions levels.
Tesla enjoys a 100% profit margin on these credits since the company gets them as a free byproduct of being an all-electric vehicle maker. In 2Q20 alone, Tesla sold $428 million in regulatory credits on its way to reporting GAAP net income of $104 million. When we remove these credits, Tesla’s GAAP net income would have been negative in each of the past three quarters, per Figure 2.
Figure 2: GAAP Profits with and Without Regulatory Credits: 3Q18 – 2Q20
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Selling credits isn’t a viable long-term strategy. As other firms ramp up production of EVs and earn more credits, they purchase less from Tesla. For example, Fiat Chrysler CEO Mike Manley noted in the firm’s 1Q19 earnings call that it expects to be compliant without the help of credits from Tesla by 2022. Without the profits from selling free regulatory credits, Tesla will have trouble increasing its already overstated profits.
Market Share Will Drop Precipitously as Incumbents Enter the EV Market
Tesla bulls tend to overlook the slow, but deliberate and large, entrance that incumbent automakers will make in the EV market. By 2025, these firms are expected to sell ~3.1 million EVs, which is significantly more than even the most optimistic estimates for Tesla sales in 2025. For comparison, Tesla sold ~368,000 cars in 2019 and expects to sell 500,000 in 2020.
Volkswagen plans to produce 1.5 million EVs in 2025.
General Motors plans to sell 1 million EVs by 2025.
Toyota plans to produce 500,000 EVs and ~5.3 million electrified vehicles (EVs and hybrids), or half its global sales in 2025.
Ford is expected to sell ~332,000 EVs in 2025.
Figure 3 illustrates how the incumbent automakers will dominate, relative to Tesla, the EV market by 2025. Projections for Tesla’s vehicle sales in 2025 vary widely: 2 million from the Trefis Team, 1.3 million from Clean Technica, and 413,000 from LMC Automotive. We have not found an estimate for Tesla sales that is not well below the incumbents expected EV sales of ~3.1 million EVs in 2025.Both Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi are expected to sell more cars, individually, than Tesla by 2025.
Figure 3: Past & Projected Electric Vehicle Sales by Manufacturer: 2018 & 2025
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and LMC Automotive, Clean Technica and Trefis Team
Unable to Match Incumbents’ Investment in EVs
After investing heavily in its operations for years, Tesla has reversed course, presumably to meet profit goals and reduce dependence on outside capital. Tesla’s capex in 2019 ($1.3 billion) represented just 62% of its depreciation, amortization, and impairment ($2.2 billion). In other words, net investment was -$827 million.
Over the TTM period, depreciation, amortization, and impairment remains higher than capex and net investment is -$429 million, per Figure 4.
Tesla is ramping down spending as competitors are ramping up.
-
This report shows investors of all types just how extreme the risk in TSLA is based on:
Overstated earnings from short-term regulatory credits
Overlooked, but huge, EV market share that incumbent automakers will take
Doing the math: the revenue, profit and production increases implied by the current valuation are highly unrealistic. Not even the most bullish analysts have forecasted the growth baked into the current price.
The Most Valuable Car Company in the World, or Most Overvalued?In July 2020, Tesla became the most valuable car company in the world when it eclipsed the market cap of Toyota Motors (TM).
Figure 1 compares the market share and market caps per car sold for Tesla, Toyota, Honda Motors (HMC), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU). Of the incumbent automakers, Toyota’s market cap per car sold is the highest at ~$19.7k. Tesla’s market cap per car sold over the TTM period is $880.2k, or more than 44 times higher than Toyota.
Is Tesla, with less than 1% of the global automotive market, worth that much more than Toyota, with ~12% of the market in 2019? Even if Tesla warrants this huge valuation premium now, how much upside is left from here?
Figure 1: Market Cap per Car Sold: Tesla vs. Peers – TTM
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Tesla Turns a Profit Selling Regulatory Credits, Not Vehicles
Tesla’s recently reported profits are based on sales of free regulatory credits to gasoline automakers, whose fleets, on average, don’t meet regulatory required emissions levels.
Tesla enjoys a 100% profit margin on these credits since the company gets them as a free byproduct of being an all-electric vehicle maker. In 2Q20 alone, Tesla sold $428 million in regulatory credits on its way to reporting GAAP net income of $104 million. When we remove these credits, Tesla’s GAAP net income would have been negative in each of the past three quarters, per Figure 2.
Figure 2: GAAP Profits with and Without Regulatory Credits: 3Q18 – 2Q20
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Selling credits isn’t a viable long-term strategy. As other firms ramp up production of EVs and earn more credits, they purchase less from Tesla. For example, Fiat Chrysler CEO Mike Manley noted in the firm’s 1Q19 earnings call that it expects to be compliant without the help of credits from Tesla by 2022. Without the profits from selling free regulatory credits, Tesla will have trouble increasing its already overstated profits.
Market Share Will Drop Precipitously as Incumbents Enter the EV Market
Tesla bulls tend to overlook the slow, but deliberate and large, entrance that incumbent automakers will make in the EV market. By 2025, these firms are expected to sell ~3.1 million EVs, which is significantly more than even the most optimistic estimates for Tesla sales in 2025. For comparison, Tesla sold ~368,000 cars in 2019 and expects to sell 500,000 in 2020.
Volkswagen plans to produce 1.5 million EVs in 2025.
General Motors plans to sell 1 million EVs by 2025.
Toyota plans to produce 500,000 EVs and ~5.3 million electrified vehicles (EVs and hybrids), or half its global sales in 2025.
Ford is expected to sell ~332,000 EVs in 2025.
Figure 3 illustrates how the incumbent automakers will dominate, relative to Tesla, the EV market by 2025. Projections for Tesla’s vehicle sales in 2025 vary widely: 2 million from the Trefis Team, 1.3 million from Clean Technica, and 413,000 from LMC Automotive. We have not found an estimate for Tesla sales that is not well below the incumbents expected EV sales of ~3.1 million EVs in 2025.Both Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi are expected to sell more cars, individually, than Tesla by 2025.
Figure 3: Past & Projected Electric Vehicle Sales by Manufacturer: 2018 & 2025
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and LMC Automotive, Clean Technica and Trefis Team
Unable to Match Incumbents’ Investment in EVs
After investing heavily in its operations for years, Tesla has reversed course, presumably to meet profit goals and reduce dependence on outside capital. Tesla’s capex in 2019 ($1.3 billion) represented just 62% of its depreciation, amortization, and impairment ($2.2 billion). In other words, net investment was -$827 million.
Over the TTM period, depreciation, amortization, and impairment remains higher than capex and net investment is -$429 million, per Figure 4.
Tesla is ramping down spending as competitors are ramping up.
-
I just don’t know if this reverse split is going to hurt Tesla but it’s better than being delisted
-
-
But when Tesla goes down to $50 like they all say it is worth we might not even be too smart to buy then because they will reverse split to stay on the nasdaq
-
I already sold my 85 Tesla shares and now I put all in Etsy because s&P is legit and Tesla is just boring.
-
Tesla's Stock Climbs As Wells Fargo Sees Potential Gains
news.google.com • -
Tesla stock jumps and some think it's because of this Elon Musk move
news.google.com • -
Tesla stock jumps and some think it’s because of this Elon Musk move
news.google.com • -
Tesla rises ahead of Q2 deliveries report
reuters.com • -
Tesla rises ahead of Q2 deliveries report
news.google.com • -
Tesla rises ahead of Q2 deliveries report
news.google.com • -
Tesla does not look like a Magnificent 7 stock anymore to Wells Fargo
news.google.com • -
Tesla does not look like a Magnificent 7 stock anymore to Wells Fargo
news.google.com • -
Should You Buy Tesla Stock Before Firm's Q2 Deliveries Report?
news.google.com • -
Top Stock Movers Now: Tesla, Boeing, Norwegian Cruise Line, and More
news.google.com • -
Stocks to Watch Today: Tesla, Chewy, and Walgreens Boots Alliance
news.google.com • -
The 3 Best Robotics Stocks to Buy in July 2024
investorplace.com • -
Why Tesla Stock Popped Ahead of Second-Quarter Deliveries
news.google.com • -
Why Tesla Stock Popped Ahead of Second-Quarter Deliveries
news.google.com • -
Stocks Waver on Higher Bond Yields and Weak US Economic News
news.google.com • -
Is Tesla (TSLA) Overbought?
youtube.com • -
Tesla Stock: I Am Shorting As Growth Story Dwindles (NASDAQ:TSLA)
news.google.com • -
Chapin Davis Inc. Sells 343 Shares of Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
news.google.com • -
Tesla Rival Revs Up, With Its Model Y Rival For Mass Market Due
news.google.com • -
Tesla stock price prediction: Huge rally coming amid carmaker's comeback
news.google.com • -
Tesla shares to get hit on lower demand, predicts Wells Fargo
news.google.com • -
Analyst puts Tesla stock on key ideas list as Q2 deliveries loom
news.google.com • -
Date Your Stocks, Don't Marry Them - Jonah Lupton
seekingalpha.com • -
BYD Sales Grow. It May Top Tesla Again.
barrons.com • -
Tesla added to Wells Fargo's Q3 tactical ideas list By Investing.com
news.google.com • -
Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares (NASDAQ:TSLS) Short Interest Update
news.google.com • -
Tesla deliveries set to fall for second straight quarter
reuters.com • -
Tesla deliveries set to fall for second straight quarter
news.google.com • -
Tesla Share Chat. Chat About TSLA.US Shares- London South East
news.google.com • -
Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. Other Things Matter More.
news.google.com • -
Tesla Deliveries Are Coming. Other Things Matter More.
news.google.com • -
You Won't Believe What This Analyst Just Said About Tesla's Future
news.google.com • -
You Won't Believe What This Analyst Just Said About Tesla's Future
news.google.com • -
Tesla and Rivian: Stifel Chooses the Best EV Stocks to Buy- TipRanks
news.google.com • -
Is It Too Late to Buy Tesla Stock?
news.google.com • -
Grimes & Company Inc. Decreases Stake in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
news.google.com • -
Stocks To Watch in July
investopedia.com • -
Stocks To Watch in July
news.google.com • -
Is It Too Late to Buy Tesla Stock?
fool.com • -
Is It Too Late to Buy Tesla Stock?
news.google.com • -
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Stock Price Up 2.1%
news.google.com • -
Where Will Tesla Be in 10 Years?
fool.com • -
Where Will Tesla Be in 10 Years?
news.google.com • -
Where Will Tesla Be in 10 Years?
news.google.com • -
Tesla Stock Breaks Out, BYD Near 2024 Highs With Q2 Deliveries On Tap
news.google.com • -
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Shares Sold by Calton & Associates Inc.
news.google.com • -
3 Mega-Cap Stocks to Consider Before They're Worth $1 Trillion
news.google.com • -
3 Mega-Cap Stocks to Consider Before They're Worth $1 Trillion
news.google.com • -
(TSLA) Trading Advice
news.google.com • -
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Shares Sold by Pinnacle Bancorp Inc.
news.google.com • -
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Stock Quotes, Forecast and News Summary
news.google.com • -
Options Corner: MU, SBUX, TSLA
youtube.com • -
Tesla Stock Finally Cracked $200. Here’s Where the Rally Goes Next.
news.google.com • -
Tesla Inc. stock rises Friday, outperforms market
news.google.com • -
Tesla Investors Brace for Big Share Price Moves as Major Catalysts Loom
news.google.com • -
3 Tech Stocks Teetering on the Brink of Trillion-Dollar Greatness
investorplace.com • -
Tesla Stock's Comeback Rally Has Officially Started
marketbeat.com • -
Tesla Stock at $200 Per Share: Hit the Brakes Before the Reversal
news.google.com • -
Next Elon Musk pay package hearing won’t consider TSLA shareholder vote
news.google.com • -
1 Stock to Buy, 1 Stock to Sell This Week: Tesla, Constellation Brands
news.google.com • -
Next Elon Musk pay package hearing won't consider TSLA investor vote
news.google.com •