![](/assets/images/down.png)
![](/assets/images/up.png)
Day Gain | ||
Gain | ||
Market Val | ||
Costs | ||
Cash | ||
Portfolio | ||
Realized | ||
Dividend |
Analysts reset Tesla stock price target ahead of Elon Musk's 'Master Plan 4' | news.google.com • |
With Shares Down Nearly 60%, Is Now the Time to Buy This EV Stock? | news.google.com • |
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Trading 0.8% Higher | news.google.com • |
Elon's Golden Handcuffs: Why Tesla's Pay Package Is Even Worse Than the GameStop ATM | news.google.com • |
Lucid Motors Stock Price Prediction 2025: Is LCID Worth the Risk Amid the EV Meltdown? | news.google.com • |
Lucid Motors Stock Price Prediction 2025: Is LCID Worth the Risk Amid the EV Meltdown? | news.google.com • |
Date | For | Estimate | Reported | Surprise | surprise % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-07-17 | 2024-06 | 0.6 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2024-04-23 | 2024-03 | 0.46 | 0.45 | -0.01 | -2.17% |
2024-01-24 | 2023-12 | 0.75 | 0.71 | -0.04 | -5.33% |
2023-10-18 | 2023-09 | 0.72 | 0.66 | -0.06 | -8.33% |
2023-07-19 | 2023-06 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.08 | 9.64% |
2023-04-19 | 2023-03 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.02 | 2.41% |
Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-10-18 | Wells Fargo | Upgrade | Equal-Weight | Equal-Weight |
2023-10-18 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Overweight | Overweight |
2023-10-18 | Wedbush | Upgrade | Outperform | Outperform |
2023-10-18 | Citigroup | Upgrade | Neutral | Neutral |
2023-10-18 | Roth MKM | Upgrade | Neutral | Neutral |
2023-10-18 | Guggenheim | Upgrade | Sell | Sell |
Date | Name | Relation | Quantity | Description |
---|---|---|---|---|
2024-03-31 | BAGLINO ANDREW D | Officer | 31.23K | Sale |
2024-05-05 | DENHOLM ROBYN M | Director | 15.00K | Sale |
2021-10-26 | EHRENPREIS IRA MATTHEW | Director | 205.73K | Sale |
2023-08-03 | KIRKHORN ZACHARY | Chief Financial Officer | 193.79K | Sale |
2024-06-02 | MURDOCH JAMES RUPERT | Director | 407.30K | Conversion of Exercise of derivative security |
2023-03-07 | MUSK ELON REEVE | Chief Executive Officer | 0.00 | Conversion of Exercise of derivative security |
Report Date | Organization | Position | Value | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-06-29 | Vanguard Group Inc | 222.49M | 58.24B | 7.01% |
2023-06-29 | Blackrock Inc. | 185.89M | 48.66B | 5.86% |
2023-06-29 | State Street Corporation | 104.12M | 27.25B | 3.28% |
2023-06-29 | Geode Capital Management, LLC | 51.66M | 13.52B | 1.63% |
2023-06-29 | Capital World Investors | 42.27M | 11.07B | 1.33% |
2023-06-29 | FMR, LLC | 28.77M | 7.53B | 0.91% |
Report Date | Organization | Position | Value | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-06-29 | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | 84.02M | 21.99B | 2.65% |
2023-06-29 | Vanguard 500 Index Fund | 64.14M | 16.79B | 2.02% |
2023-05-30 | Fidelity 500 Index Fund | 30.10M | 6.14B | 0.95% |
2023-08-30 | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 29.68M | 7.66B | 0.94% |
2023-08-30 | Invesco ETF Tr-Invesco QQQ Tr, Series 1 ETF | 25.05M | 6.46B | 0.79% |
2023-08-30 | iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | 25.20M | 6.50B | 0.79% |
Split | Date |
---|---|
3 : 1 | 2022-08-25 |
5 : 1 | 2020-08-31 |
-
Don’t get bit bears team bulls are coming to buy up all of the shares in universe even the ones on mars too
-
I’m going to buy so many calls for this week of 600 700 800 2000 it’s going to the moon
-
-
This report shows investors of all types just how extreme the risk in TSLA is based on:
Overstated earnings from short-term regulatory credits
Overlooked, but huge, EV market share that incumbent automakers will take
Doing the math: the revenue, profit and production increases implied by the current valuation are highly unrealistic. Not even the most bullish analysts have forecasted the growth baked into the current price.
The Most Valuable Car Company in the World, or Most Overvalued?In July 2020, Tesla became the most valuable car company in the world when it eclipsed the market cap of Toyota Motors (TM).
Figure 1 compares the market share and market caps per car sold for Tesla, Toyota, Honda Motors (HMC), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU). Of the incumbent automakers, Toyota’s market cap per car sold is the highest at ~$19.7k. Tesla’s market cap per car sold over the TTM period is $880.2k, or more than 44 times higher than Toyota.
Is Tesla, with less than 1% of the global automotive market, worth that much more than Toyota, with ~12% of the market in 2019? Even if Tesla warrants this huge valuation premium now, how much upside is left from here?
Figure 1: Market Cap per Car Sold: Tesla vs. Peers – TTM
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Tesla Turns a Profit Selling Regulatory Credits, Not Vehicles
Tesla’s recently reported profits are based on sales of free regulatory credits to gasoline automakers, whose fleets, on average, don’t meet regulatory required emissions levels.
Tesla enjoys a 100% profit margin on these credits since the company gets them as a free byproduct of being an all-electric vehicle maker. In 2Q20 alone, Tesla sold $428 million in regulatory credits on its way to reporting GAAP net income of $104 million. When we remove these credits, Tesla’s GAAP net income would have been negative in each of the past three quarters, per Figure 2.
Figure 2: GAAP Profits with and Without Regulatory Credits: 3Q18 – 2Q20
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Selling credits isn’t a viable long-term strategy. As other firms ramp up production of EVs and earn more credits, they purchase less from Tesla. For example, Fiat Chrysler CEO Mike Manley noted in the firm’s 1Q19 earnings call that it expects to be compliant without the help of credits from Tesla by 2022. Without the profits from selling free regulatory credits, Tesla will have trouble increasing its already overstated profits.
Market Share Will Drop Precipitously as Incumbents Enter the EV Market
Tesla bulls tend to overlook the slow, but deliberate and large, entrance that incumbent automakers will make in the EV market. By 2025, these firms are expected to sell ~3.1 million EVs, which is significantly more than even the most optimistic estimates for Tesla sales in 2025. For comparison, Tesla sold ~368,000 cars in 2019 and expects to sell 500,000 in 2020.
Volkswagen plans to produce 1.5 million EVs in 2025.
General Motors plans to sell 1 million EVs by 2025.
Toyota plans to produce 500,000 EVs and ~5.3 million electrified vehicles (EVs and hybrids), or half its global sales in 2025.
Ford is expected to sell ~332,000 EVs in 2025.
Figure 3 illustrates how the incumbent automakers will dominate, relative to Tesla, the EV market by 2025. Projections for Tesla’s vehicle sales in 2025 vary widely: 2 million from the Trefis Team, 1.3 million from Clean Technica, and 413,000 from LMC Automotive. We have not found an estimate for Tesla sales that is not well below the incumbents expected EV sales of ~3.1 million EVs in 2025.Both Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi are expected to sell more cars, individually, than Tesla by 2025.
Figure 3: Past & Projected Electric Vehicle Sales by Manufacturer: 2018 & 2025
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and LMC Automotive, Clean Technica and Trefis Team
Unable to Match Incumbents’ Investment in EVs
After investing heavily in its operations for years, Tesla has reversed course, presumably to meet profit goals and reduce dependence on outside capital. Tesla’s capex in 2019 ($1.3 billion) represented just 62% of its depreciation, amortization, and impairment ($2.2 billion). In other words, net investment was -$827 million.
Over the TTM period, depreciation, amortization, and impairment remains higher than capex and net investment is -$429 million, per Figure 4.
Tesla is ramping down spending as competitors are ramping up.
-
This report shows investors of all types just how extreme the risk in TSLA is based on:
Overstated earnings from short-term regulatory credits
Overlooked, but huge, EV market share that incumbent automakers will take
Doing the math: the revenue, profit and production increases implied by the current valuation are highly unrealistic. Not even the most bullish analysts have forecasted the growth baked into the current price.
The Most Valuable Car Company in the World, or Most Overvalued?In July 2020, Tesla became the most valuable car company in the world when it eclipsed the market cap of Toyota Motors (TM).
Figure 1 compares the market share and market caps per car sold for Tesla, Toyota, Honda Motors (HMC), General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU). Of the incumbent automakers, Toyota’s market cap per car sold is the highest at ~$19.7k. Tesla’s market cap per car sold over the TTM period is $880.2k, or more than 44 times higher than Toyota.
Is Tesla, with less than 1% of the global automotive market, worth that much more than Toyota, with ~12% of the market in 2019? Even if Tesla warrants this huge valuation premium now, how much upside is left from here?
Figure 1: Market Cap per Car Sold: Tesla vs. Peers – TTM
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Tesla Turns a Profit Selling Regulatory Credits, Not Vehicles
Tesla’s recently reported profits are based on sales of free regulatory credits to gasoline automakers, whose fleets, on average, don’t meet regulatory required emissions levels.
Tesla enjoys a 100% profit margin on these credits since the company gets them as a free byproduct of being an all-electric vehicle maker. In 2Q20 alone, Tesla sold $428 million in regulatory credits on its way to reporting GAAP net income of $104 million. When we remove these credits, Tesla’s GAAP net income would have been negative in each of the past three quarters, per Figure 2.
Figure 2: GAAP Profits with and Without Regulatory Credits: 3Q18 – 2Q20
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and company filings
Selling credits isn’t a viable long-term strategy. As other firms ramp up production of EVs and earn more credits, they purchase less from Tesla. For example, Fiat Chrysler CEO Mike Manley noted in the firm’s 1Q19 earnings call that it expects to be compliant without the help of credits from Tesla by 2022. Without the profits from selling free regulatory credits, Tesla will have trouble increasing its already overstated profits.
Market Share Will Drop Precipitously as Incumbents Enter the EV Market
Tesla bulls tend to overlook the slow, but deliberate and large, entrance that incumbent automakers will make in the EV market. By 2025, these firms are expected to sell ~3.1 million EVs, which is significantly more than even the most optimistic estimates for Tesla sales in 2025. For comparison, Tesla sold ~368,000 cars in 2019 and expects to sell 500,000 in 2020.
Volkswagen plans to produce 1.5 million EVs in 2025.
General Motors plans to sell 1 million EVs by 2025.
Toyota plans to produce 500,000 EVs and ~5.3 million electrified vehicles (EVs and hybrids), or half its global sales in 2025.
Ford is expected to sell ~332,000 EVs in 2025.
Figure 3 illustrates how the incumbent automakers will dominate, relative to Tesla, the EV market by 2025. Projections for Tesla’s vehicle sales in 2025 vary widely: 2 million from the Trefis Team, 1.3 million from Clean Technica, and 413,000 from LMC Automotive. We have not found an estimate for Tesla sales that is not well below the incumbents expected EV sales of ~3.1 million EVs in 2025.Both Volkswagen and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi are expected to sell more cars, individually, than Tesla by 2025.
Figure 3: Past & Projected Electric Vehicle Sales by Manufacturer: 2018 & 2025
Sources: New Constructs, LLC, and LMC Automotive, Clean Technica and Trefis Team
Unable to Match Incumbents’ Investment in EVs
After investing heavily in its operations for years, Tesla has reversed course, presumably to meet profit goals and reduce dependence on outside capital. Tesla’s capex in 2019 ($1.3 billion) represented just 62% of its depreciation, amortization, and impairment ($2.2 billion). In other words, net investment was -$827 million.
Over the TTM period, depreciation, amortization, and impairment remains higher than capex and net investment is -$429 million, per Figure 4.
Tesla is ramping down spending as competitors are ramping up.
-
I just don’t know if this reverse split is going to hurt Tesla but it’s better than being delisted
-
-
But when Tesla goes down to $50 like they all say it is worth we might not even be too smart to buy then because they will reverse split to stay on the nasdaq
-
I already sold my 85 Tesla shares and now I put all in Etsy because s&P is legit and Tesla is just boring.
-
We should should sell everything and buy Etsy
-
I own a Tesla and I know for a fact that battery day is not even something I care about as an investor and owner! Because the s&P is king and we are trash
-
Battery day seems like a big scam to sucker in more peoples hard earned money
-
Battery day doesn’t make me want to buy any more stocks what for ? So I can lose the money
-
A battery that actually works properly isn’t going to save us from crashing I don’t think I’m so scared because really there is nothing happening on battery day that we don’t already know so people would by the stock already if battery day was going to help anything
-
I’m not totally sure guys that battery day will save us because aren’t they just announcing the new body style and the battery that actually works and doesn’t brake down every year and cost a fortune to replace
-
But I heard battery day will make it all better right
-
I heard the stock is magic and will just like magically go back up right
-
I want a to know if my stock I bought was 500 when does it turn into 1 million like how many years ? I’m counting on my investment here in such a great company
-
How long does it take for my stock to make me a millionaires ? I need to fix my Tesla it went out of control and killed some old lady now I in jails
-
I bet this stock will be 1,000,000 soon just wait dummy bear
-
With Shares Down Nearly 60%, Is Now the Time to Buy This EV Stock?
news.google.com • -
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Trading 0.8% Higher
news.google.com • -
Tesla Stock (NASDAQ:TSLA): 2 Catalysts That Indicate a Turnaround
news.google.com • -
2 Catalysts for Tesla Stock That May Indicate a Turnaround
news.google.com • -
Tesla stock gets cautious outlook from Barclays over Q2 2024 concerns
news.google.com • -
Tesla Inc. stock rises Friday, outperforms market
news.google.com • -
Tesla Inc. stock rises Friday, outperforms market
news.google.com • -
Tesla, opponents of Musk's pay clash over resolving compensation lawsuit
news.google.com • -
Analysts weigh in Tesla stock price target, deliveries and robotaxis
news.google.com • -
Calls of the Day: Palo Alto, Tesla and Freeport-McMoran
youtube.com • -
Tesla Inc (TSLA-Q) Quote- The Globe and Mail
news.google.com • -
Tesla to Snatch $1 Trillion Valuation on AI, Robotics: Wedbush
news.google.com • -
Tesla tells judge that shareholder vote should reverse Musk pay ruling
news.google.com • -
Tesla: Wedbush maintains Buy rating, $275 price target
news.google.com • -
Tesla Deliveries Have Been Lousy. That’s Not About to Change.
news.google.com • -
Tesla shares set for ‘positive catalysts' in coming weeks with Robotaxi day around the corner
proactiveinvestors.co.uk • -
Tesla stock gets cautious outlook from Barclays over Q2 2024 concerns
news.google.com • -
TSLY: 50% Yield On Tesla
seekingalpha.com • -
Barclays remains cautious on Tesla stock. Here's why By Investing.com
news.google.com • -
Barclays remains cautious on Tesla stock. Here's why By Investing.com
news.google.com • -
Barclays remains cautious on Tesla stock. Here's why
news.google.com • -
Barclays remains cautious on Tesla stock. Here's why By Investing.com
news.google.com • -
Is Rivian a Millionaire-Maker Stock?
news.google.com • -
Is Rivian a Millionaire-Maker Stock?
news.google.com • -
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Shares Down 1.3% on Analyst Downgrade
news.google.com • -
Is Motley Foold the Best Stock Research Platform in 2024?
news.google.com • -
NVDA, GME, AMD, NKLA, TSLA: 5 Top Trending Stocks Today- Benzinga
news.google.com • -
Mutual fund holdings suggest 10 stocks to buy, including Tesla
news.google.com • -
Should You Buy Tesla Stock For 1,329% Upside?
news.google.com • -
Tesla Inc. stock falls Thursday, underperforms market
news.google.com • -
Alphabet's Waymo poised to recapture Wall Street interest amid Tesla's Robotaxi day buzz
proactiveinvestors.com • -
Tesla Setting Up After Musk Pay Deal; BYD In Buy Area
news.google.com • -
Rags to Riches: 3 Robotics Stocks That Could Make Early Investors Rich
investorplace.com • -
Polestar, Lucid? Which EV Company Implodes Next?
247wallst.com • -
Got $5,000? These 3 Growth Stocks Are on Sale Right Now
news.google.com • -
Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares (NASDAQ:TSLL) Stock Price Down 3.5%
news.google.com • -
7 Underestimated Stocks Poised for an Underdog Uprising
investorplace.com • -
Can Tesla Produce 400,000 Vehicles in the Second Quarter?
247wallst.com • -
3 Stocks You Don't Want to Be Caught Holding When the Market Drops
news.google.com • -
Why It's Time to Throw In the Towel on Tesla Stock
news.google.com • -
Tesla shareholders back huge payout for CEO Musk, company says
news.google.com • -
NVDA, DJT, ARM, CHWY, TSLA: Top 5 Trending Stocks Today- Benzinga
news.google.com • -
Tesla (TSLA) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note
news.google.com • -
Tesla Inc. stock falls Tuesday, underperforms market
news.google.com • -
Tesla China Registrations Are Down 9% With Two Weeks Remaining In Q2
news.google.com • -
Tesla Master Plan 4 = Anything But Cars- Investing.com
news.google.com • -
Musk plans stock option grants to Tesla's high-performers, sources say
news.google.com • -
Read Elon Musk's email to Tesla about stock awards
news.google.com • -
Elon Musk says Tesla will give some new stock options to top performers
news.google.com • -
F vs. TSLA: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
news.google.com • -
TSLA Stock Alert: Tesla Sues Battery Supplier Matthews International
news.google.com • -
Morgan Stanley Positive on Tesla (TSLA)
news.google.com • -
Elon Musk's Pay Package Is One More Reason to Sell Tesla Stock
news.google.com • -
Tesla Stock Surges After Shareholder Meeting
news.google.com • -
Tesla stock still feeling positive effects from Musk pay package
news.google.com • -
Elon Musk Rolls Out New Stock Compensation Plan Amid Workforce Reshuffle
news.google.com • -
Tesla Stock Is the Biggest Bubble in History, Could Crash to $15
news.google.com • -
Tesla kicks off legal fight to reinstate Musk's pay
news.google.com • -
Tesla Stock Is Soaring, but It Won’t Top This Level
news.google.com • -
S&P 500: Tesla, Broadcom Among Winners Monday. First Solar Leads Losers.
news.google.com • -
How The SEC's Latest Elon Musk Investigation Could Hit Tesla
news.google.com •