Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX

Spcx/ 10.00 by end of 2026.

He is a Russian agent, it’s been confirmed, and he is part of the musk rat family, so he is also a rodent.

Fuck Musk Rat! No one gives a fuck
What that asshole does!

Where Is the Floor for SpaceX Stock Right Now?
After all the IPO hype, is it time for investors to seriously consider SpaceX?
By Howard Smith – Jul 25, 2026 at 12:30PM EST
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KEY POINTS

Space Exploration Technologies has lost over $1 trillion in value since its post-IPO high.
Data centers in space aren't coming tomorrow, giving investors time to own SpaceX.
Aug. 4 is a key date for investors, and not just because it's earnings day.

Space Exploration Technologies (
SPCX
-2.85%
) went from being the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in history to one of the worst-performing IPOs in a long time. That's the market at work.

SpaceX was valued at about $1.8 trillion upon going public, but its underlying fundamentals didn't justify that valuation. Hype and hope aren't typically good investment strategies over the long term. Now that the stock has tumbled, it's time to think about when the right investment point might be.

White SpaceX logo set over a dark view of the earth from space.
Image source: The Motley Fool.

Let the market work

SpaceX stock has given back more than $1 trillion from its peak valuation reached less than a week after it went public. With shares recently trading at about $118, patient investors can now own the stock well below its $135 IPO price and $161 first day closing price. The question now is by how much SpaceX shares might drift lower. It's especially timely to ask that, given its first quarterly earnings report since going public is due on Aug. 4.

First, investors need to realize that SpaceX isn't going to operate like a traditional business going public. It was listed at a valuation that made no sense fundamentally. While the company had about $18 billion in 2025 revenue, those who bought shares at the IPO were looking far into the future for much higher revenue and profit potential.

That helps explain why SpaceX has performed so poorly in its short public life. According to a Barron's analysis, the stock has underperformed compared to 90% of other U.S. IPOs with market capitalizations of $1 billion or more since July 2009.

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Space Exploration Technologies Stock Quote
NASDAQ: SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies
Today's Change
(-2.85%) $-3.37
Current Price
$114.87

Market cap calculated using publicly traded shares outstanding only. Does not include unlisted, private, or dual-class non-traded shares. Implied market cap may vary.
Wait a few days after earnings

It's hard to judge what a good valuation would be to buy into SpaceX. It has huge potential with its SpaceXAI data center business, not to mention Starship rocket launches and the possibility of orbital data centers.

So one isn't going to make it a value investment where a traditional price-to-sales (P/S) or price-to-earnings (P/E) metric applies. Whether it declines enough to reach a $1 trillion valuation -- or about $76.5 per share -- is impossible to know. But investors do have a sense of the timing that might be appropriate.

SpaceX's initial earnings report will be Aug. 4. That, of course, is an important date to remember. But that report also triggers the start of the company's unique staged lock-up expiration. The actual trading unlock happens two days later on Aug. 6.

At that point, an initial tranche of over 900 million shares will be available for early investors and employees to sell. It seems likely that some will gladly monetize their stake. That would be when I would begin buying a position in SpaceX.

And there's no reason to jump in all at once, either. Investors should review the company's earnings release and then determine a strategy for building a position after Aug. 6.

Elon Musk is billions of dollars below his short-lived status as a trillionaire. (Apu Gomes/Getty Images)
Tesla and SpaceX stock, as investors know, have gotten hammered this week, and the drops have cost Elon Musk a boatload of money.

Is the Musk premium baked into SpaceX stock price?
HSBC analyst says the Musk factor is already baked into SpaceX stock price.
The firm's analysts initiated coverage on SPCX shares with a Hold rating.
SpaceX is currently down more than 40% versus its peak price.
Investors betting on SpaceX SPCX shares are buying into more than just reusable orbital rockets and a global satellite internet network – they are purchasing a ticket to the visionary leadership of Elon Musk.

However, according to a recent analysis from HSBC, that celebrated “Musk factor” may already be fully priced into the equity.

Analysts at the bank initiated coverage on the aerospace pioneer with a Hold rating and a $115 target price, indicating absence of any meaningful upside from current levels.

Note that SpaceX stock has been in a sharp downtrend in recent weeks. At writing, it’s trading even below its IPO price of $135.

HSBC’s unconventional valuation model for SpaceX stock

Standard financial formulas used for traditional conglomerates, SPACs, or biotech firms simply fail to reflect how the market rates elite founders who reshape global industries.

To capture this reality, HSBC departed from classic metrics and built a custom sum-of-the-parts model featuring a 2x “innovation premium”.

The benchmark for this multiplier was drawn directly from Tesla’s first decade on public markets, leveraging Musk’s established track record in disruptive manufacturing and commercial deployment.

The bank noted that while analysts often apply holding company discounts, special founder premiums are warranted when leaders consistently upend whole sectors.

Yet even with this generous multiplier factored in, HSBC concludes that current market prices leave very little room for short-term upside on SPCX shares.

What SPCX shares need to rally from current levels

The core takeaway from HSBC’s base-case framework is that today’s market valuation already anticipates seamless execution across SpaceX’s main business pillars.

Investors have fully embedded expectations for Starlink's expanding global subscriber footprint, high-frequency Falcon launch manifests, and early-stage spatial artificial intelligence initiatives.

However, the report cautions that for SpaceX shares to breach higher territory, the company must overdeliver; HSBC did outline an optimistic “blue sky” scenario valuation of $293 per share.

But achieving it requires aggressive operational milestones: commercial viability for the next-generation Starship rocket by 2027, doubling overall launch throughput relative to base estimates, extracting significantly higher average revenue per user (ARPU) from Starlink, and securing top-tier software multiples for its internal AI infrastructure.

How to play SpaceX at current levels?

While long-term bulls point to that $293 optimistic view, short-term realities on the trading floor reflect heightened scrutiny.

SPCX stock has faced headwinds following technical delays around its pivotal 13th Starship test flight and market anxiety over massive insider share unlock periods approaching in August.

While institutional backers continue to view Starship as the key to unlocking exponential payload scale, HSBC’s balanced stance highlights that execution risks cannot be ignored.

Until SpaceX consistently proves out Starship's full orbital reusability and commercial monetization, the stock appears bound to its fundamental trajectory, leaving the famous Musk premium firmly baked into the price for now.

Musk's bad week: Tesla suffers worst slump since 2022, SpaceX drops ahead of Starship test flight
Lora Kolodny
SpaceX founder Elon Musk addresses members of the media during a press conference announcing new developments of the Crew Dragon reusable spacecraft, at SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, California, Oct. 10, 2019.

Philip Pacheco | Afp | Getty Images

It was a rough week for Elon Musk.

Tesla shares plunged 18% during the week to close at $313.03 on Friday, their worst weekly slump since 2022. And SpaceX's stock continued its downward slide, dropping 7.2% over five days to close at $115.07 Friday, its lowest since the company's record initial public offering last month.

The declines in both stocks wiped away about $130 billion of Musk's wealth, weeks after he'd become the world's first trillionaire. In a post on X on Friday, Musk wrote, "(Former) trillionaire."

Tesla's slump was spurred by weaker-than-expected earnings when the electric vehicle maker reported second-quarter results late Wednesday. The company turned cash flow negative due to a surge in spending on futuristic projects like robotaxis, humanoid robots and a giant chip fab.

"We expect this to pressure free cash flow and delay earnings growth, without providing any near-term shareholder return," wrote analysts at Argus Research, which has a hold rating on the stock, in a report on Friday. "We believe it will be nearly impossible for Tesla to generate any consistency in profit growth in the near-term."

Tesla's stock is now down 30% for the year, by far the worst performer among tech's mega-caps.

Meanwhile, SpaceX's stock has been on a steady downward trajectory over the past month following an initial pop when the company went public. The shares have dropped for four of the past five weeks and are about 43% off their peak close on June 16.

On Friday evening, SpaceX will again attempt the 13th test flight of Starship, the largest rocket ever built or flown. The company plans to fly the new version of the rocket, Starship V3, from its company town and launch facility in Starbase, Texas. The rocket is designed to be fully reusable and is considered crucial for SpaceX's near-term aims to vastly grow its Starlink satellite network.

In a post on X, which is owned by SpaceX, the company said it delayed the test flight planned for Thursday "due to weather." SpaceX previously scrubbed a test flight last week, after the rocket's booster triggered a hold, which "shut down the engines right as they were starting to ignite," a SpaceX employee said during a livestream of the event.

A successful launch of Starship V3, an upgraded version of its roughly 400-foot-tall rocket, would be the first since the company's IPO.

SpaceX plans to use Starship to bring U.S. astronauts back to the Moon's surface, and Musk wants the rocket to eventually power manned missions to Mars.

Musk made a public appearance this week, sitting down for what turned out to be a contentious interview with The Economist.

Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor-in-chief of the publication, asked Musk about his support for "not just the populist right, but the far right, in fact very fringe parties in some countries."

In addition to his financial and vocal support for President Donald Trump, including his work for the second administration, Musk has endorsed Germany's AfD, an extreme anti-immigrant party, as well as the U.K.'s Restore Britain, founded by Rupert Lowe, who also calls to "reverse mass migration."

"It's just normal people!" Musk said in response. He berated Beddoes and "the traditional media" for an "absurd characterization of the far right."

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) could decline to $50 per share between August 2026 and the first half of 2027 if a series of bearish catalysts align, according to ChatGPT.

Notably, the AI model does not consider a drop to $50 the most likely outcome. However, it believes the risk becomes more significant if insider selling accelerates after lockup restrictions are lifted, earnings disappoint, and progress on Starship remains delayed.

The assessment comes after SpaceX stock fell about 50% from its post-IPO high above $225 to trade around $115 as of press time.

Trillionaire No More. SpaceX Collapse Loses Elon Musk $600 Billion in One Month
Rich DupreyJul 25, 12:03PM EDT
Few events capture Wall Street’s imagination like a marquee IPO. The combination of a famous founder, limited public float, and fear of missing out can push newly public companies well beyond what fundamentals alone justify. History is filled with examples, from the dot-com boom to more recent offerings, where excitement lifted valuations before reality eventually took over.

That’s exactly why experienced investors often approach blockbuster IPOs with caution. SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) public debut may have compressed that entire cycle into just one month, offering an important lesson before highly anticipated offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI arrive.

SpaceX’s IPO Hype Meets Reality

The buildup to SpaceX’s public debut was unlike almost anything investors have seen in years.

After pricing its IPO at $135 per share, SpaceX opened its first day of trading at $150 before enthusiasm pushed the stock as high as $225 in the days that followed. For a brief period, it seemed every investor wanted a piece of Elon Musk’s latest empire.

That enthusiasm has faded just as quickly. SpaceX now trades around $113 per share — roughly 50% below its post-IPO high and 16% below its original offering price. The reversal has been swift, but it isn’t unprecedented.

History shows that many high-profile IPOs struggle once the initial excitement wears off. Sometimes that adjustment happens over six months or a year. In SpaceX’s case, the process unfolded in a matter of weeks.

Let’s also remember that the next phase may not be over. Lockup agreements that prevent insiders from selling their shares begin expiring next month. Those expirations often increase selling pressure as early investors and employees finally gain the ability to cash out. Some newly public companies don’t establish lasting bottoms until months — or even several years — after their debuts as they prove they can consistently grow into lofty valuations.

Musk’s Wealth Rose Just as Fast as It Fell

The dramatic swings in SpaceX also produced one of the largest paper wealth gains — and losses — in history.

According to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, Elon Musk’s estimated net worth began the year near $630 billion before the SpaceX IPO frenzy briefly pushed his fortune above $1.3 trillion. As SpaceX retreated, that paper wealth evaporated just as quickly. By Friday, Bloomberg estimated Musk’s fortune at approximately $718.8 billion, representing a decline of roughly $600 billion in about a month.

Musk himself seemed to acknowledge the reversal with characteristic humor, posting simply on X: “(Former) Trillionaire.”

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Elon Musk X post

Of course, Musk never had $1 trillion sitting in a bank account. Like virtually every billionaire, the overwhelming majority of his wealth consists of ownership stakes whose values fluctuate every trading day.

The Bigger Lesson Isn’t About Musk

No one is likely to launch a GoFundMe campaign for Elon Musk. Yet the episode illustrates how quickly headline-grabbing wealth figures can change.

Political rhetoric often treats billionaire wealth as though it were static. In reality, fortunes tied to publicly traded companies can rise or fall by hundreds of billions of dollars without a single share being sold. Wealth is dynamic, not fixed.

More importantly, economies generally grow by encouraging innovation rather than limiting it. Musk’s companies illustrate that point. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) helped accelerate mainstream electric vehicle adoption after decades of failed attempts by others. SpaceX has transformed commercial spaceflight and lowered launch costs. Even X has become a platform where users can share viewpoints that are suppressed or might receive less visibility elsewhere.

Granted, reasonable people can disagree about Musk’s leadership style or his public statements. But creating businesses that generate jobs, technological advances, and shareholder value is ultimately how wealth is created in the first place.

Key Takeaway

In short, the biggest lesson from SpaceX’s volatile debut isn’t that Elon Musk lost his trillionaire status. It’s that IPO euphoria rarely lasts forever.

Smart investors have long been warned against chasing blockbuster offerings during their first days of trading, and SpaceX demonstrates why. Better entry prices often emerge once excitement fades and markets begin focusing on fundamentals instead of headlines.

Trillionaire No More. SpaceX Collapse Loses Elon Musk $600 Billion in One Month
Rich DupreyJul 25, 12:03PM EDT
Few events capture Wall Street’s imagination like a marquee IPO. The combination of a famous founder, limited public float, and fear of missing out can push newly public companies well beyond what fundamentals alone justify. History is filled with examples, from the dot-com boom to more recent offerings, where excitement lifted valuations before reality eventually took over.

That’s exactly why experienced investors often approach blockbuster IPOs with caution. SpaceX‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX | SPCX Price Prediction) public debut may have compressed that entire cycle into just one month, offering an important lesson before highly anticipated offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI arrive.

SpaceX’s IPO Hype Meets Reality

The buildup to SpaceX’s public debut was unlike almost anything investors have seen in years.

After pricing its IPO at $135 per share, SpaceX opened its first day of trading at $150 before enthusiasm pushed the stock as high as $225 in the days that followed. For a brief period, it seemed every investor wanted a piece of Elon Musk’s latest empire.

That enthusiasm has faded just as quickly. SpaceX now trades around $113 per share — roughly 50% below its post-IPO high and 16% below its original offering price. The reversal has been swift, but it isn’t unprecedented.

History shows that many high-profile IPOs struggle once the initial excitement wears off. Sometimes that adjustment happens over six months or a year. In SpaceX’s case, the process unfolded in a matter of weeks.

Let’s also remember that the next phase may not be over. Lockup agreements that prevent insiders from selling their shares begin expiring next month. Those expirations often increase selling pressure as early investors and employees finally gain the ability to cash out. Some newly public companies don’t establish lasting bottoms until months — or even several years — after their debuts as they prove they can consistently grow into lofty valuations.

Musk’s Wealth Rose Just as Fast as It Fell

The dramatic swings in SpaceX also produced one of the largest paper wealth gains — and losses — in history.

According to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, Elon Musk’s estimated net worth began the year near $630 billion before the SpaceX IPO frenzy briefly pushed his fortune above $1.3 trillion. As SpaceX retreated, that paper wealth evaporated just as quickly. By Friday, Bloomberg estimated Musk’s fortune at approximately $718.8 billion, representing a decline of roughly $600 billion in about a month.

Musk himself seemed to acknowledge the reversal with characteristic humor, posting simply on X: “(Former) Trillionaire.”

Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.

Elon Musk X post

Of course, Musk never had $1 trillion sitting in a bank account. Like virtually every billionaire, the overwhelming majority of his wealth consists of ownership stakes whose values fluctuate every trading day.

The Bigger Lesson Isn’t About Musk

No one is likely to launch a GoFundMe campaign for Elon Musk. Yet the episode illustrates how quickly headline-grabbing wealth figures can change.

Political rhetoric often treats billionaire wealth as though it were static. In reality, fortunes tied to publicly traded companies can rise or fall by hundreds of billions of dollars without a single share being sold. Wealth is dynamic, not fixed.

More importantly, economies generally grow by encouraging innovation rather than limiting it. Musk’s companies illustrate that point. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) helped accelerate mainstream electric vehicle adoption after decades of failed attempts by others. SpaceX has transformed commercial spaceflight and lowered launch costs. Even X has become a platform where users can share viewpoints that are suppressed or might receive less visibility elsewhere.

Granted, reasonable people can disagree about Musk’s leadership style or his public statements. But creating businesses that generate jobs, technological advances, and shareholder value is ultimately how wealth is created in the first place.

Key Takeaway

In short, the biggest lesson from SpaceX’s volatile debut isn’t that Elon Musk lost his trillionaire status. It’s that IPO euphoria rarely lasts forever.

Smart investors have long been warned against chasing blockbuster offerings during their first days of trading, and SpaceX demonstrates why. Better entry prices often emerge once excitement fades and markets begin focusing on fundamentals instead of headlines.