GTA 6 Nears Launch With $1 Billion in Estimated Preorders: Bettors See 97% Chance of Record First-Day Sales
Daragh Thomas 1 hour ago
MarketsNewsGeneralEntertainmentGamingEquitiesPrediction Markets
GTA 6 has an estimated $1.09 billion in preorders as bettors give it a 97% chance of breaking GTA V’s first-day sales record
Grand Theft Auto V took just three days to make $1 billion. Thirteen years later, its sequel has reportedly reached that figure before even hitting store shelves.
GTA VI has drawn an estimated $1.09 billion in preorders ahead of its Nov. 19 release, setting the stage for a potentially record-breaking launch for Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (NASDAQ:TTWO), the parent company of Rockstar Games.
A Billion Dollars Before Launch
Market intelligence firm Sensor Tower estimates GTA VI has generated 11.27 million digital console preorders as of November 12, up from 7.71 million on Nov. 3.
That’s nearly 3.6 million additional preorders in nine days.
Sony confirmed GTA VI is the most-preordered game in PlayStation Store history, while Microsoft announced the same record for its own storefront.
Sony began allowing players to download the game nine days early, citing unprecedented demand and urging customers to prepare for launch day.
The excitement extends beyond preorders. An estimated 12.5 million American gamers plan to take time off or change their work or school schedules for GTA VI’s release, according to a PCMag survey conducted by YouGov.
Bettors See Record-Breaking Launch
GTA V sold 11.21 million copies on its first day in 2013, according to Guinness World Records, slightly fewer than GTA VI’s estimated preorders.
Those sales generated $815.7 million. Traders on Polymarket now see a 97% chance GTA VI will beat that benchmark. The market has attracted about $22,000 in trading.
The bet requires GTA VI to generate more than $815.7 million in first-day revenue, with qualifying sales figures reported by January 31, 2027.
Despite the extraordinary demand, Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick isn’t ready to celebrate.
“We still aren’t ready to declare victory,” he told analysts Monday.
Take-Two maintained its fiscal 2027 net bookings forecast of $8 billion to $8.2 billion, even as it raised its separate revenue outlook.
The $815.7 million record is the hurdle for bettors. For TTWO shareholders, the bigger test is whether GTA VI can push Take-Two beyond its company-wide December-quarter bookings forecast of $3.35 billion to $3.5 billion.
Image: Shutterstock