SpaceX's Historic Starship Flight 15 Still Awaiting FAA Approval Hours Before Launch

Elon Musk‘s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is preparing for its Starship launch Friday, but the company is still awaiting federal approval just hours before liftoff.

The Federal Aviation Administration had not issued the required launch license as of Friday morning, Reuters reported, despite SpaceX targeting a 5:45 p.m. ET launch from Starbase, Texas.

The FAA has typically issued Starship licenses a day before launch, making the outstanding authorization unusually late. SpaceX has not announced a postponement.

Why This Flight Needs Special Approval

Flight 15 presents an unusual regulatory challenge because SpaceX plans to return Starship’s upper stage to its Texas launch site rather than allowing it to splash down in the ocean.

The spacecraft’s return trajectory passes over land, including northern Mexico, creating additional safety considerations, Ars Technica reported in October.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell addressed the approval process during the company’s October earnings call.

“We expect the license for our Flight 15 to include return to launch site and tower catch for both stages,” Shotwell said.

The FAA has not publicly explained why authorization remains outstanding or whether the spacecraft’s return trajectory is responsible.

The agency’s operations plan lists Saturday, Nov. 14, as a backup launch date, with a corresponding backup reentry on Sunday.

Polymarket Traders Weigh Launch Prospects

On Polymarket, traders gave Flight 15 approximately a 75% chance of launching by Sunday, Nov. 15, with around $13,300 traded on the contract.

That implies roughly a one-in-four chance the flight slips beyond the weekend. Traders gave a launch by Nov. 30 a 97% chance.

The market also put the probability of a successful Starship tower catch at 49%, slightly below Musk’s assessment that success was “more likely than not.”

What’s at Stake for SpaceX

Friday’s mission would deploy 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites while attempting to recover both rocket stages at the launch site for the first time.

The Super Heavy booster would return minutes after liftoff, while Starship would complete 14 orbits before attempting its first tower catch approximately 22 hours later.

Successful recovery would advance Musk’s plans to make Starship fully reusable, potentially reducing launch costs and accelerating Starlink expansion, as SpaceX targets weekly launches in the first half of 2027.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said a possible Starship catch “could be the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO.”

SpaceX shares were indicated around $140.70 in early Friday premarket trading, compared with Thursday’s $139.94 close.

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