Elon Musk's SpaceX Could Be Making AST SpaceMobile More Valuable, Analysts Say

Elon Musk‘s SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) wants to compete with America’s biggest cellphone companies. That could be good news for satellite rival AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS).

The reason? Those cellphone companies may prefer a satellite partner that isn’t also trying to take their customers.

That’s the argument UBS analyst Christopher Schoell made Tuesday, even as he cut his AST price target from $78 to $43, citing launch delays and execution risks.

AST SpaceMobile’s Earnings Disappoint

AST is building enormous satellites that connect directly to ordinary smartphones, potentially bringing cellphone coverage to places without towers.

Rather than competing for subscribers, it plans to provide that coverage through operators such as AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ).

But the company still has a long way to go.

AST reported quarterly revenue of $42.3 million Monday, missing expectations of $46.6 million. Its loss of 44 cents per share was also wider than expected, sending shares down 8.7% Tuesday.

AST still expects to begin limited satellite service before year-end. However, its target of 45 satellites in orbit has slipped from early 2027 to mid-2027.

Despite those setbacks, CEO Abel Avellan told investors the company expects to work with all major mobile operators in the U.S. and Europe.

Could SpaceX Push T-Mobile Toward AST?

At Friday’s Baron Investment Conference, Musk suggested SpaceX could buy an existing cellphone operator outright.

“We could just acquire that legacy telco,” he said.

Polymarket traders give SpaceX a 22% chance of offering a qualifying U.S. cellphone plan by June 2027, rising to 52% by Jan 2028. To qualify, SpaceX must offer a plan with a U.S. phone number, regular calls, texts and mobile data. Buying an existing cellphone carrier would count, but its current satellite service through T-Mobile would not.

Either route, a plan of its own or an acquisition, would put SpaceX in direct competition with the carriers it now sells satellite service to.

Berenberg analyst Michael Filatov described AST as “the natural satellite partner for operators.”

He even suggested T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS), Starlink’s flagship U.S. partner, could eventually buy satellite capacity from AST.

T-Mobile’s parent, Deutsche Telekom, has already expressed interest in alternatives to Starlink. However, no AST deal has been announced, and T-Mobile’s existing Starlink exclusivity continues beyond 2026.

There’s one complication for AST: it still relies partly on SpaceX rockets to launch the satellites that will compete against Starlink.

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