Zipline Private Shares Soar 222% In A Year as AeroVironment Stock Craters 69%

Investors looking for exposure to the drone industry are seeing two very different investment stories unfold. Private-market shares of Zipline are surging, while publicly traded defense contractor AeroVironment (NASDAQ:AVAV) faces a steep stock decline.

The contrasting performances highlight two increasingly important segments of the drone industry: commercial autonomous delivery and military unmanned aircraft systems. Although the companies have no formal partnership and serve different markets, their performance offers a glimpse into how investors are valuing different applications of drone technology.

Zipline, the privately held drone-delivery startup, has seen its estimated share price more than triple over the past year. Meanwhile, shares of AeroVironment Inc. have lost nearly 69% of their value over the same period.

Zipline’s Private Shares Rally As Valuation Soars

Forge Global data shows Zipline’s Forge Price at $125.60 per share, representing a 222.05% gain over the past year and a 118.78% increase over six months.

The rally comes as investor interest in autonomous delivery accelerates. Zipline announced a $1.5 billion funding round Thursday at a $21.5 billion post-money valuation, nearly tripling the $7.6 billion valuation it secured in an earlier financing round.

Paradigm, WCM Investment Management and Layer Global led the latest investment. Fidelity Management & Research Company, Uber, Tiger Global and J.P. Morgan also participated.

Zipline plans to use the funding to expand its U.S. manufacturing capacity, increase hiring and build out a nationwide drone-delivery network.

The company is also gaining traction through commercial partnerships. Zipline and Walmart are working to add 300 delivery sites under a new multiyear agreement, while Uber is targeting as many as one million daily deliveries using Zipline’s technology by 2029.

The expansion reflects investor expectations that autonomous delivery could become a larger part of the retail, healthcare and logistics industries.

AeroVironment Stock Slides Despite Strong Backlog

AeroVironment offers a different kind of exposure to the drone industry, with its business focused on military applications, unmanned aircraft, loitering munitions and counter-drone technologies.

Despite growing demand for autonomous defense systems, the company’s stock has struggled. Shares had fallen 68.52% over the year through Nov. 5, according to Perplexity Finance data, closing at $110.41. The decline has brought AeroVironment’s market capitalization to roughly $5.6 billion.

The selloff comes despite relatively strong operating results.

AeroVironment reported fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue of $480.5 million, up 6% year over year. Its funded backlog also reached a record $1.5 billion, representing a 37% increase from the prior year.

The company maintained its full-year revenue forecast of $2.125 billion to $2.225 billion.

However, investors have been weighing contract and execution risks. A recent setback involving a planned $1.7 billion U.S. Space Force contract tied to AeroVironment’s BlueHalo acquisition has added pressure to the stock.

Two Different Bets On The Future Of Drones

The contrasting performances show that even as demand for drone technology expands, investors aren’t betting equally on every corner of the industry. 

Zipline’s rally reflects growing confidence in the commercial potential of autonomous delivery, while AeroVironment’s decline highlights the risks tied to defense contracts and execution. 

Ultimately, the two companies illustrate how different business models within the same rapidly evolving industry can produce dramatically different results for investors.

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