Ameren Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Ameren (NYSE:AEE) reported third-quarter financial results on Friday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.

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View the webcast at https://ameren-corporation-3q-2026-earnings-call.open-exchange.net/registration

Summary

Ameren Corporation reported strong Q3 2026 earnings of $2.42 per share, up from $2.17 in Q3 2025, driven by higher sales, favorable weather, and infrastructure investments.

The company raised its 2026 EPS guidance to $5.35-$5.55 and provided a 2027 EPS guidance of $5.70-$5.90, reflecting anticipated growth from infrastructure investments and customer demand.

Ameren plans to invest $38.1 billion in energy infrastructure over the next five years, aiming for an 8-10% compound annual EPS growth from 2027 to 2031, supported by regional economic development and increased energy needs.

Strategic initiatives include expanding energy infrastructure, executing large-load electric service agreements, and advancing generation and transmission projects, contributing to long-term growth and customer benefits.

Management highlighted robust economic development in Missouri and Illinois, with significant projects from Google and Amazon, and emphasized the importance of a reliable and resilient energy grid.

Full Transcript

OPERATOR

Good day, everyone. My name is Ryan, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I’d like to welcome you all to the Ameren Corporation third quarter 2026 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time and if you have joined via the webinar, please use the Raise Hand icon, which can be found at the bottom of your webinar application.

At this time, I’d like to turn the call over to Andrew Kirk, Senior Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Modeling.

Andrew Kirk (Senior Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Modeling)

Thank you, and good morning. On the call with me today are Marty Lyons, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Michael Main, Group President of our Ameren utilities; and Lenny Singh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, as well as other members of the Ameren management team. This call contains time-sensitive data that is accurate only as of the date of today’s live broadcast, and redistribution of this broadcast is prohibited. We have posted a presentation on the amereninvestors.com homepage that will be referenced by our speakers. As noted on page two of the presentation, comments made during this conference call may contain statements about future expectations, plans, projections, financial performance, and similar matters, which are commonly referred to as forward-looking statements.

Please refer to the Forward-Looking Statements section in the news release we issued yesterday, as well as our SEC filings, for more information about the various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. Lastly, all per-share earnings amounts discussed during today’s presentation, including earnings guidance, are presented on a diluted basis unless otherwise noted. Now here’s Marty, who will start on page four.

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Starting on page four with key highlights today, we’re very excited to share an update to our growth story, one driven by growing customer energy needs, economic development across our region, and the need for an even more resilient grid. We are well positioned to meet these needs, support expansion, and deliver durable value to our customers, communities, and shareholders. First, reflecting our strong year-to-date performance and outlook, we have raised our 2026 earnings per share guidance range and issued 2027 earnings per share guidance that represents solid year-over-year growth. Looking further ahead, we have also raised our long-term growth outlook with expected compound annual earnings per share growth of 8 to 10% from 2027 through 2031.

This outlook reflects strong economic development across our service territory, particularly in Missouri, where 2.8 gigawatts of signed electric service agreements underpin our higher sales forecast and increased generation investment plan, with additional opportunities in the pipeline. Regional economic growth is also driving incremental investment opportunities in our transmission segment to connect new generation resources and serve new large-load customers.

To meet this increasing energy need, we plan to strategically invest $38.1 billion in energy infrastructure over the next five years, which is expected to drive 13.3% compound annual rate base growth from 2026 through 2031. What excites me most about this plan is the opportunity to create lasting value for our customers and communities through a safer, more reliable, and more resilient grid while directly supporting a growing economy with more and better jobs.

Indeed, our strategy outlined on page five is centered on delivering value to the customers and communities we serve, including 2.5 million electric and 900,000 natural gas customers across Missouri and Illinois. By investing in and strengthening our energy infrastructure, advocating for constructive energy policies, and continuously optimizing performance to improve service quality, we are delivering on what matters most to our customers: safe, reliable energy at the lowest cost possible.

Turning to page six, execution of our strategy is delivering tangible customer benefits. Over time, we have achieved top-quartile reliability performance and strong customer service satisfaction. We have also supported tens of billions of dollars in annual economic impact and, in 2025 alone, an estimated 63,000 jobs, while keeping average residential rates below national and Midwest averages. And that’s before factoring in the significant additional economic impact from the large-load and other customer growth our investments facilitate, including significant incremental tax revenue for our communities highlighted on page seven.

Execution of our strategy has also delivered strong, consistent shareholder results. Since divesting our merchant business in 2013, weather-normalized adjusted earnings per share have grown at a compound annual rate of approximately 7.4%, annual dividends per share have increased 78%, and total shareholder return has exceeded 300%, significantly outperforming utility index averages. Looking ahead, we believe continued execution of this strategy centered on delivering value for customers and communities will continue to drive superior long-term returns for our shareholders.

Turning now to page eight, here we reiterate our strategic priorities for 2026. Targeted, timely infrastructure investments are key to delivering reliable service. As shown on the right, we invested more than $4 billion in energy infrastructure through September to strengthen reliability and resiliency and improve service. The value of continued investment was evident during the third quarter’s extreme heat, when our infrastructure performed well and our team successfully managed the system through periods of exceptionally high demand, keeping our coworkers safe, homes cool, and businesses running.

This year’s severe weather, with Illinois leading the nation in tornado activity, further underscores the importance of building a stronger, more resilient energy system and having skilled teams in place to operate it safely and reliably. In 2026 through September, investments in grid automation helped avoid more than 63 million customer outage minutes across both Missouri and Illinois, a tangible example of how infrastructure investment translates into better service.

We also made strong progress on many other objectives, which I’ll discuss in a moment. Moving to page nine, yesterday we reported third quarter 2026 earnings of $2.42 per share compared to adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share in the third quarter of 2025. The key drivers of our strong third quarter results are outlined on this page. In light of a strong year-to-date performance, we raised our 2026 earnings per share guidance range to $5.35 to $5.55 from our original range of $5.25 to $5.45.

Turning to page ten for our 2027 guidance outlook, we have a long track record of strong and consistent earnings per share growth. As we look ahead, we expect this to continue. We expect 2027 earnings to be in the range of $5.70 to $5.90 per share. The midpoint of this range represents 8.4% earnings per share growth compared to our original 2026 earnings guidance midpoint. Lenny will provide the key drivers for 2026 and expected 2027 earnings later in the call.

Turning to page 11 and Ameren Missouri sales growth expectations, at Ameren, we are proud to provide the quality of service that is necessary to attract investment and economic growth to our region. The pipeline of economic development interest within our service territory remains robust across Missouri and Illinois. Our five-year financial plan laid out today assumes 12.9% compound annual sales growth in Missouri from 2027 through 2031, based on an assumption of 2.9 gigawatts of new load by 2031.

This growth assumption, as depicted by the dashed green line on the chart on the right-hand side of this page, is consistent with our preferred resource plan through 2030, which projects a 60% increase in Missouri sales by 2030 from 2027 levels. This growth is supported by the existing 2.8 gigawatts of electric service agreements, with sales from those agreements expected to reach full capacity in 2030. Beyond these signed agreements, our pipeline includes 1.2 gigawatts of projects with construction agreements and an additional 4.4 gigawatts of projects with completed interconnection studies.

We were pleased to see one of the projects with a completed interconnection study advance to a construction agreement since our second-quarter update. Consistent with the requirements of Missouri Senate Bill 4, large-load customers will pay for the power and infrastructure costs driven by their operations, and once their sites are operational, large-load customers will contribute to paying fixed costs of the energy grid, providing long-term cost benefits for other customers.

Moving then to page 12 for an update on Missouri’s generation plan, in September, Ameren Missouri filed its 2026 Integrated Resource Plan, updating its 20-year roadmap to reliably and cost-effectively meet customers’ energy needs under a range of future conditions using an optimal mix of natural gas, solar, energy storage, wind, nuclear, and other technologies. Our preferred resource plan is designed to serve 3.4 gigawatts of additional demand by 2031 and 5 gigawatts by 2036.

To support this growth, the plan calls for accelerating and expanding natural gas generation and battery storage, expanding solar generation and adding fuel-cell generation, extending the retirement date of two Labadie Energy Center units from 2036 to 2042, and adding new nuclear generation by 2040. Importantly, the table on this page identifies the preferred resource plan additions included in our 2027 through 2031 capital plan. The five-year capital plan supports 2.9 gigawatts of incremental load growth by 2031.

Preferred plan resources identified as not included in our five-year capital and rate base growth plans represent potential upside to our outlook as we execute additional electric service agreements. We will continue to provide updates on any additional electric service agreements and associated investment needs as appropriate. On page 13, we outline how continued execution of our strategy is expected to drive strong growth over the next five years. Today, we’re rolling forward our five-year capital plan, which now totals $38.1 billion, reflecting significant investment to serve the anticipated load growth I just discussed while strengthening system reliability. We expect these investments to drive 13.3% compound annual rate base growth from 2026 through 2031. Leveraging our proven strategy and building upon our track record of strong earnings growth, we expect to deliver 8 to 10% compound annual earnings per share growth from 2027 through 2031.

Using our 2027 guidance midpoint of $5.80 per share as the base, as large-load sales ramp in 2028 and 2029, we expect annual earnings per share growth near the upper end of that range in those years. We also expect to deliver strong, sustainable annual dividend growth as our earnings grow, with a payout ratio ranging between 45 to 55%. As we invest to support meaningful economic growth in our communities, our focus remains on delivering reliable, affordable service for all customers, with large-load customers paying the cost required to serve their operations.

I’m truly excited about the opportunity to support this significant growth and the lasting benefits it can bring to local communities and across our region. I’ll now turn the call over to Michael to discuss our disciplined approach to delivering the generation and transmission resources needed to meet our growing sales.

Michael Moehn (Sr Executive VP)

Thanks, Marty, and good morning, everyone. I’ll begin on page 15. As Marty outlined, significant economic development is driving growing energy needs across our region. Our economic development teams remain focused on supporting long-term business investment and job growth. That work is translating into tangible results for our communities. During the second quarter, Google and Amazon announced projects in our Missouri service territory representing a combined planned investment of $25 billion.

These projects are part of the 2.8 gigawatts of ESAs we signed earlier this year. As you can see from the photos on this page, the projects are well underway. These projects are creating thousands of construction jobs for local contractors and small businesses and will directly employ hundreds of people longer term. Once operational, these projects are also expected to generate billions of dollars in local tax revenue, helping fund schools and public safety, including fire stations and police stations, and improve roads, delivering lasting benefits to the communities where they operate.

Beyond these investments, Google and Amazon have committed millions of dollars through community benefit agreements to support new workforce development, energy efficiency, and community-focused programs both locally and across Missouri. We will continue to work closely with businesses interested in locating operations in our service territory to find the right solutions to meet their energy needs and ultimately support economic development in the region.

Moving to page 16, we continue to make strong progress advancing our generation portfolio to support customers’ growing energy needs with a focus on reliability and affordability. As our generation investment grows, we are applying lessons learned across projects through a disciplined, portfolio-based execution model. This includes standardizing designs and equipment as appropriate, securing long-lead components early, leveraging experienced engineering and construction partners across multiple projects, and strengthening our internal team to provide consistent oversight.

Work underway at the Castle Bluff and Big Hollow Energy Center is helping establish a repeatable execution model for other projects, including the 2.1 gigawatt West Alton Energy Center. This approach is designed to improve productivity, better coordinate resources across projects, and increase schedule and cost predictability. We believe this approach positions us well to effectively execute future generation projects and meet increasing customer demand.

Turning to page 17, the execution focus we just discussed is critical as we advance Ameren Missouri’s broader generation plan. Consistent with our 2026 Preferred Resource Plan, we are developing a balanced and diverse portfolio that includes adding approximately 7.7 gigawatts of new generation capacity from 2027 through 2031, which would increase Ameren Missouri’s installed capacity by approximately 80%. With 5.3 gigawatts of announced projects, we are making tangible progress toward that target.

Approximately 2.3 gigawatts of simple-cycle gas, solar, and battery storage resources have received regulatory approval, are under construction, and are expected to begin serving customers in 2027 and 2028. In July, we filed a CCN request for the 2.1 gigawatt West Alton facility, which is expected to be in service in 2031. In October, the Missouri PSC approved CCN requests for nearly 1 gigawatt of solar and storage resources. Following a five-month review, these projects are expected to begin serving customers in 2028 and 2029.

With more than 5 gigawatts of new generation resources in progress and more in the pipeline, I’m pleased to say that our teams are well positioned to deliver these projects on schedule for our customers. Planned generation additions are expected to generate approximately $2.75 billion of tax credits from 2027 through 2031, providing significant savings for our customers as new large-load electric demand evolves. Our focus remains on serving all our customers reliably and affordably by carefully planning and executing grid upgrades, maintaining a balanced generation portfolio, and ensuring costs to serve new large-load customers are appropriately allocated to such customers in accordance with Senate Bill 4.

Moving to page 18 for a transmission update, we continue making robust investment in our region’s transmission infrastructure to ensure ongoing reliability and efficiency. We expect our transmission investment levels to remain strong over time to support new large-load customers and to connect the generation resources required to serve our territory reliably as regional demand grows. At the same time, we remain focused on executing our assigned and awarded long-range transmission projects.

For the first two MISO LRTP tranches, in the second quarter MISO selected our joint proposals for the WIL and SU LRTP Tranche 2 competitive projects located in our Illinois service territory. Notably, we have won the opportunity to develop all five competitive long-range transmission projects in our service territory within both the Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 portfolios, reflecting our strong record of delivering high-quality transmission infrastructure at a competitive cost.

I’m also pleased to say that last month our joint proposal for the competitive ESOL transmission project located in Iowa was selected from among multiple bids. Over half of the approximately $500 million investment opportunity is included in the capital plan issued today. Importantly, this marks our first competitive transmission project award outside of our service territory and further demonstrates our ability to effectively and efficiently design, build, and operate high-quality transmission infrastructure.

On page 19, we outline the investment pipeline across our businesses over the next decade. These investments will support safety, reliability, and resiliency of the energy grid and economic development in the region while positioning our system to power the quality of life for all of our customers in our territory. The pipeline now includes more than $90 billion in investment opportunity through 2036. The $19 billion increase in our 10-year pipeline primarily reflects the investments needed to serve the 5 gigawatts of load growth assumed within the new Ameren Missouri Preferred Resource Plan by 2036.

Moving to page 20, we recognize that our critical infrastructure projects represent significant investments, which is why we prioritize the projects that are most beneficial for customers and maintain a sharp focus on keeping rates as low as possible. Through disciplined cost management, we’ve been able to keep our Ameren-supplied residential rates in Missouri and Illinois on average below both national and Midwest averages. In addition, Ameren invests hundreds of millions of dollars each year to support our customers and communities through energy efficiency programs and demand response initiatives.

In October, we announced $10 million of additional funding for PROP programs to help eligible customers in need across Missouri and Illinois manage their energy bills. In addition to funding Ameren-developed programs, we also partner with a wide range of organizations to connect customers with available federal, state, and local assistance. In 2026 through September, Ameren customers received more than $107 million in total energy assistance. We’re also focused on affordability through transformational process improvements, including implementation of several operational enhancements designed to increase efficiency and help manage costs.

Since implementing these programs, we have achieved savings of over $100 million annually. For example, we have implemented a standardized planning and scheduling model across distribution operations that improves how work is planned, prioritized, cost-estimated, and executed, reducing costs and enabling crews to be more productive. We’ve also implemented initiatives designed to strengthen the efficiency of our third-party spend. And also underway, we’re working to improve the productivity of our gas operations through standardized operating practices and optimized crew deployment, streamlining operating costs while maintaining strong safety, service, and emergency response performance. We’re also advancing a multi-year digital roadmap to optimize operating costs, simplify the technology landscape, and position the company to leverage automation and AI capabilities more effectively.

I’m excited by the operational milestones achieved to date, and I’m confident in our team’s ability to effectively execute our investment plans in a way that benefits our customers and communities. I will now turn the call over to Lenny for a financial update.

Leonard P. Singh (Chief Financial Officer)

Thanks, Michael. I’ll begin on page 22 of our presentation. Yesterday we reported third quarter 2026 GAAP earnings of $2.42 per share compared to third quarter 2025 GAAP earnings of $2.35 per share and adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share. The difference between 2025 GAAP and the adjusted earnings reflected a previous disclosure of a tax benefit of $0.18 per share. The year-over-year third quarter increase primarily reflected higher sales and favorable weather, higher earnings on investments in innovative energy technologies, and higher earnings on infrastructure investments to improve system reliability, resiliency, and service quality.

The third quarter was the warmest in St. Louis in more than 50 years, with the month of September being the hottest on record. Separate from the impact of weather, we continue to experience solid customer growth at Ameren Missouri, where weather-normalized electric retail sales for the trailing twelve months ended September increased approximately half a percent, primarily driven by the growth in the commercial customer class. These positive factors were partially offset by higher operations and maintenance expenses at Ameren Missouri, primarily driven by increased reliability-focused efforts.

Moving to page 23 for select considerations for the remainder of the year, as Marty noted yesterday, we raised our 2026 earnings per share guidance due to strong year-to-date performance. The revised outlook assumes normal temperatures for the remainder of the year. As we close out the year, we expect higher expenditures for distribution line inspections, tree trimming, and energy center maintenance that will strengthen service for our customers through continued execution of our strategy.

We remain focused on delivering 2026 earnings within our updated guidance range. Turning to pages 24 and 25 for a brief update on the Missouri Electric Rate review we filed with the Missouri PSC in late June. The review is proceeding according to the established procedural schedule, and we expect Missouri PSC staff and other intervenors to file direct testimony in early December. Recall the requested revenue increase is designed to recover the cost of significant system reliability and resiliency investments, in addition to incorporating meaningful improvements for our customers.

This request also includes $21 million in savings from projected data center revenues for our other retail customers and establishes a new income-eligible discount rate to supplement our financial assistance programs already in place. We look forward to working with the Missouri PSC staff and other stakeholders throughout the review process to achieve a constructive outcome. We expect the Missouri PSC order by May 2027 with new rates reflecting the approved adjustment effective by June 2027.

Moving to page 26 for an update on Ameren Illinois regulatory matters. The 2025 Annual Reconciliation Proceeding under the Electric Multi-Year Rate Plan continues to progress. The $28 million adjustment we are requesting reflects 2025 actual cost, actual year-end rate base, and the allowed return on equity and common equity ratio established in the Multi-Year Rate Plan. Notably, our requested adjustment is aligned with the ICC staff and administrative law judges’ recommendations.

An ICC decision is expected in December with the approved reconciliation adjustment reflected in rates in 2027. Moving to the Ameren Illinois Multi-Year Grid Plan proceeding, we proposed a $2.7 billion electric distribution investment plan for 2028 through 2031. The plan is designed to strengthen grid safety, reliability, and resiliency while preparing the system to support evolving customer needs and Illinois’s clean energy objectives. Last month the Administrative Law Judge recommended approval of the grid plan with proposed downward adjustments to our capital plan of approximately $200 million.

We expect an ICC decision on the proposed investment plan by December. The approved Multi-Year Grid Plan will inform a rate review filing we expect to make in the first quarter of 2027. Turning to page 27, we look at our company-wide capital plan for the next five years. As Marty highlighted, we see robust investment opportunities ahead. The plan we are releasing today calls for $38.1 billion in capital expenditures from 2027 through 2031, an increase of more than 20% compared to our capital plan issued last year. The increase in our capital plan reflects the roll forward of our plan from 2030 to 2031, the firming up of cost estimates and project timing, and the incorporation of new investments.

The investments themselves primarily reflect significant new generation additions at Ameren Missouri, critical upgrades to strengthen and maintain an aging grid across all operating segments, and expanded transmission investments to execute awarded MISO LRTP competitive projects, interconnect new generation to serve large customers, and support resource adequacy across the region. We expect this investment to drive 13.3% compound annual rate base growth from 2026 to 2031, which is outlined by business segment on this page.

Turning to pages 28 and 29 where we provide a financing update, we continue to feel good about our financial position as we fund our robust infrastructure plan. We remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and strong credit metrics. Our primary source of funding will continue to be cash from operations, which we expect to increase as sales grow and rates are updated to reflect our investment in energy infrastructure. Additional funding needs will be financed in a balanced manner consistent with our past practices.

We fulfilled our 2026 equity needs in 2025, primarily through $600 million of forward sales agreements that we expect to settle near the end of the year. We expect to issue approximately $5 billion of equity from 2027 through 2031 and have sold forward in 2026 approximately $1.7 billion of common stock under our at-the-market program to address a portion of those needs. We’ve had success utilizing our ATM program and expect to continue to leverage the program going forward.

We appreciate the flexibility our ATM provides, including the ability to effectively dollar-cost average our issuances over time. Based on our anticipated investment and other funding needs, we expect equity issuances for 2027 through 2031 to be concentrated primarily near year-end 2027 and year-end 2028. Long-term debt will fund remaining cash requirements in 2027. We expect approximately $5.2 billion of new long-term issuance to refinance maturing obligations and fund a portion of our $8.8 billion of planned investments.

A portion of such issuances could include parent company hybrid debt securities which receive 50% equity credit from Moody’s and S&P. Expected timing for 2027 debt issuances is shown on page 29. We will continue to proactively manage interest rate risk associated with planned parent company new issuances through systematic execution of our rate hedging program. As a reminder, this past spring S&P and Moody’s reaffirmed our stable outlook and BBB and Baa1 credit ratings, respectively.

As we’ve said before, we value our current ratings and remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and strong credit metrics as we execute our growth plan. Moving to page 30 of our presentation, Marty outlined our 2027 earnings per share guidance range. Earlier expected 2027 earnings detailed by segment compared to our 2026 expectations are highlighted on this page. Robust planned infrastructure investments, strong expected sales and economic growth, and strategic business process optimization opportunities give us confidence in our ability to deliver strong earnings growth in 2027 and the years ahead.

In summary, turning to page 31, we’re excited about the opportunities ahead and confident in our ability to execute our strategic plan and deliver strong, sustainable value to customers, communities, and shareholders. As Marty noted earlier, our outlook includes 8% to 10% compound annual EPS growth from 2027 through 2031, and we expect EPS growth near the upper end of that range in 2028 and 2029. This anticipated growth reflects strong economic development with expected 12.9% compound annual sales growth in Missouri from 2027 through 2031, as well as our $38.1 billion five-year capital plan that is expected to drive 13.3% compound annual rate base growth. Additional electric service agreements and the infrastructure investments needed to serve that demand represent potential upside to these growth expectations over the next decade. We have identified an investment pipeline greater than $90 billion needed to support reliability and anticipated economic growth while delivering meaningful benefits to our customers.

We also expect to deliver strong, sustainable annual dividend growth as our earnings grow, with a payout ratio ranging between 45% to 55%. As we execute our robust growth plan, we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and strong investment-grade credit ratings. Taken together, we believe our strong growth outlook, disciplined financing plan, and focus on operational excellence and execution position us well to deliver long-term value for our customers and competitive total returns for shareholders.

With that, we’ll now open the call for questions.

OPERATOR

We will now move to our question and answer session. If you have joined via the webinar, please use the raise hand icon which can be found at the bottom of your webinar application. When you are called on, please unmute your line and ask your question. We will now pause a moment to assemble the queue. Our first question will come from Char Porza with Wells Fargo. Please unmute your line and ask your question.

Andrew Kadevi (Analyst at Wells Fargo)

Actually, it’s Andrew Kadevi on for Char this morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

Leonard P. Singh (Chief Financial Officer)

Good morning, Andrew. Sure, happy to do it.

Andrew Kadevi (Analyst at Wells Fargo)

So looking at the EPS rate CAGR and then also the rate base CAGR, we’re seeing a pretty big delta there. The delta has gone up since your last update. Can you talk about what’s driving that? Is it structural, or is this something that could be narrowed through time?

Leonard P. Singh (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, look, similar to the past, the big delta between the rate base growth and the earnings per share growth rate that we expect has to do with our financing activities. And, you know, as you know, we’re going to finance the capital expenditure plan that we have, that $38.1 billion capital plan, in a very balanced way, consistent with the way we’ve historically financed our operations, which means we will be issuing some equity over time to help with the financing of that.

You know, today we talked about the fact that we expect about $5 billion of equity issuances over the next five years. We’ve already got $1.7 billion of that priced through some of the forward hedging that we’ve—but that equity dilution is the primary driver of the difference between the rate base growth plans that we have and the EPS growth that we expect to be able to deliver over the next five years.

Andrew Kadevi (Analyst at Wells Fargo)

Thank you for that. And then, moving on to the rate case in Missouri, are you thinking that you’ll be able to settle that case, or since it’s kind of your first one with a large-load tariffs involved, maybe you want to fully litigate it? And then on top of that, what kind of outcome are you embedding in your plan for that rate case?

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, I’ll start. This is Marty again and see if anybody else wants to chime in. But you know, we’re really still in the very early stages with respect to that rate review. As we indicated in our prepared remarks, this case is really about infrastructure investments that have been made to serve, you know, all of our existing customers today. We really aren’t serving any large load. We expect those sales to begin ramping up in late 2027 and only modestly in late 2027, and really not ramp up till 28 or 29.

So really this case is really all about infrastructure investments we’ve made for our traditional customer base. We expect, as we mentioned, to see direct testimony from parties in early December. So we haven’t seen any of that yet. However, we do always try to work with the parties in these cases to resolve issues and we have a good track record of being able to settle these rate reviews in the past. And that would be our ambition again as we go with this rate review.

So, you know, typically those settlements have occurred sometime between when true-up testimony is received and the evidentiary hearings begin. So that would, you know, signal late February, early March of next year in terms of a possible sort of settlement time frame. And you know, as I sit here today, again not having seen any direct testimony yet, but have no reason to believe we wouldn’t be able to reach agreement with the other parties in the case.

OPERATOR

Our next question will come from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley. Please unmute your line and ask your question.

Amanda (Analyst at Morgan Stanley)

Hey, this is Amanda on for Dave. Thanks so much for taking our questions. Maybe the first point on large loads and with ESAs expected to ramp starting in 2H27 and then reaching full capacity in 2030, what are the main items that could accelerate or delay the ramp? And do you see any impact to earnings from any shifts to the expected ramp?

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Good morning, Amanda. Yeah, look, first of all, as you probably saw in our slides, we were encouraged by the construction activity that we’re seeing with respect to the 2.2 gigawatts of construction that’s already underway. We showed, you know, in a couple of pictures that’s for Google and for Amazon. And so we’re, we’re seeing really good progress in terms of those construction activities as well as our own construction crews. It’s great to be able to go out and meet with our teams and interconnecting the transmission assets that we have to these particular sites and have, have had great progress there as well.

So really it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s terrific to see. So as we sit here today, we are encouraged by the signs we’re seeing. We expect ramp to begin in 2027 and as you noted, ramp aggressively in 28 and 29. What could throw that off? I would say, you know, construction delays at those sites to the extent those would occur. But frankly we’ve had pretty good weather year to date and are seeing again, very good progress. But I think that’s the primary thing would be any delays in construction that could occur over the course of 2027 as they really look to finalize those structures.

And I would say, you know, extent that any of those sales were delayed due to construction activity or other, other matters, it would of course affect the sales growth and EPS growth that we would see in 27 or 28. But we feel like the CAGR we provided today as well as the guidance we gave about our expectations to deliver near the upper end of that and in 28 and 29 have reasonable assumptions baked in in terms of the growth we expect to see.

Amanda (Analyst at Morgan Stanley)

Great, that’s helpful. Thank you. And then you raised the like 26 range to 535, 555. Any specific moving pieces to call it there and kind of what puts you into that higher range?

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, I think Lenny covered it really well as he went through 2026. We’ve had favorable weather year to date. We’ve had some gains on some innovation investments that we’ve made and that’s been partially offset by investments that we’ve made, O&M investments that we’ve made in our system as it relates to things like additional vegetation management, energy center maintenance, things that we’ve really done to bolster reliability for our customers and our distribution system, as well as bolster the reliability of our energy centers, which is really going to be important in the years ahead.

We saw those as needed investments, frankly, very early in the year and, and began making those, those investments early. So you know, net we feel very confident in our ability to raise the midpoint of our guidance, you know, 10 cents.

Amanda (Analyst at Morgan Stanley)

Great. Thank you so much.

OPERATOR

Our next question will come from Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Please unmute your line and ask your question.

Carly Davenport (Analyst at Goldman Sachs)

Hey, good morning. Thanks so much for taking the questions. Maybe just starting on the revised EPS growth outlook. Obviously the 27 guidance is just north of 8% growth year over year. Anything more you can share about cadence of growth as we work through the planning period relative to that 8 to 10% range?

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, that’s a really terrific question and appreciate it. Yeah, you know, first of all, as it relates to 2027, you know, we had guided on our prior calls that we expected to deliver at the upper end of our prior 6 to 8% earnings per share growth range. And that’s exactly what we’re delivering today. As you look at that midpoint of that 570 to 590 guidance at $5.8 again, 8.4% growth off of the original guidance we gave for 2026, which 535. So you know, I think that should meet expectations now as we look ahead to years beyond that spoken earlier, we’re expecting to see a ramp rate in terms of the sales to our new customers, these Hyperscalers under that 2.8 gigawatts of energy services agreements that we’ve signed. You can see that we’re already deploying more capital in 2027 and we’ll be doing so again in 2028 as we really look to invest to build out the generation resources to serve those ESAs.

So you’re seeing both in 28 and 29 higher sales growth as well as higher rate base growth in those periods. And that is what’s given us the confidence to indicate that we expect our earnings per share growth in 28 and 29 to be, you know, towards the upper end of that new 8 to 10% EPS CAGR that we’ve provided. But again we feel like we’ve got really good visible growth all the way out through 2031, which gives the confidence to provide that 8 to 8 to 10% CAGR. And as you know, that’s driven by the $38.1 billion of expenditures we have, which again was increased not only for incremental generation investments in Missouri, but also as Michael indicated, incremental investments in transmission as well. Given the long-range transmission projects that we’ve won and the need to begin spending capital in the latter parts of this five year plan to achieve the in-service dates of 2032 to 2034 for those LRTP projects.

So feel good about the growth all the way out through 2031. You know, based upon all that, now I might take the opportunity, given your question, to talk a little bit about some of the upside that we also see in our plan. So you know, I’d focus you on, on slides 11 and 12 in particular, you know. So as you know, today we’ve signed 2.8 gigawatts of energy services agreements. As I just said, we expect those to ramp up pretty quickly after 2027. The preferred resource plan assumed 2.9 gigawatts of sales growth by 2030. So as we said earlier today, that’s what we embedded in this update today, essentially 60% sales growth in Missouri by 2030.

If you look over to Slide 12 in the bottom right in the second column from the right you see which preferred plan resources, you know, which projects and the related CapEx we’ve included in the update today, that amounts to, if you total up that column, that amounts to 7,650 megawatts of new capacity or about an 80% increase in our installed capacity. That is the generation that we believe is needed to serve that 2.9 gigawatts of assumed growth in sales out through 2030 or 2031.

But as we said today, there’s upside in our plans both to our sales and to our rate base growth plans. If you look back on Slide 11, you’ll see that we have another 5.6 gigawatts of large load interest. That’s what’s supported by construction agreements or interconnection agreements. And the generation assets in the full preferred plan would allow us to serve 3.4 gigawatts by 2031 and 5 gigawatts by 2036. So if we do sign additional ESAs, depending upon the amount and the timing of those sales, we would add spending towards the addition of the resources shown in the bottom right of slide 12, you know, and we would be spending that in this five year period. So that could be again additive in the latter part of this five year plan to our to our sales and to our capital expenditures.

I would also note that, you know, in the IRP there was an upside case and that’s depicted in the dark blue line on page 11. And while it’s not shown in these slides, that would require more simple cycle and combined cycle gas as well as renewables during that period of 2032 to 2034 we would need those assets to go into service. But that would also, as you know, based upon supply chain and construction timelines that would require us to actually invest more during this five year period and, and drive rate base growth even higher.

So I guess bottom line, where I’m going with all this, I’m very optimistic about the future. I’m excited about the economic development opportunities that are before us, excited for the communities that we serve and the jobs that this is going to create. But we’ve been conservative today in the outlook that we provided. We’ve only incorporated sales based upon the ESAs that we’ve signed. We’ve only incorporated the capital expenditures for the projects needed to serve those 2.9 gigawatts of sales that we’ve included.

And we think there’s upside as we look even at the latter part of these five year plan in terms of sales opportunities and additional CapEx. So just building that on because we feel very good about that 8 to 10% CAGR that we provided today.

Carly Davenport (Analyst at Goldman Sachs)

Appreciate that perspective, super helpful. And maybe just in that same vein, you also obviously raised here the 10 year pipeline pretty significantly anything that you can share sort of on how front end loaded that remaining kind of 52 billion or so in additional opportunities beyond the five year planning period is just as you think about some of the moving pieces on the PRP and transmission.

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, it’s a really good question. You’re right, we feel really good about that 10 year outlook and that pipeline we have. And I think with respect to, you know, the front end loading, if you will, I think you’re saying, hey, do you think it’s going to be front end loaded after 2031? The answer is yes, largely as we sit here today because we’ve got greater visibility there. And I think what you want to look at is those transmission projects that we won that have those in-service dates as I mentioned in 2032-2034.

Look at the additional generation assets that we’re putting into service which you see in the slide that we provided on the IRP. You know, there’s better visibility in those periods. And so yeah, I think as it relates to that incremental, you know, 52, that’s more front end loaded. But again I’m optimistic that the growth that we’re experiencing today can continue on for a decade and I think there’ll be opportunities to add to that 90 billion as we, as we go through time.

That’s really what’s visible today. And I would say, going back to my answer to your last question, that includes what’s in the preferred plan, but it does not include generation resources that would be needed if we were able to achieve the upside case in the IRP.

Carly Davenport (Analyst at Goldman Sachs)

Got it. Really appreciate all the color. Thank you.

OPERATOR

Our next question will come from Richard Sunderland with Truist Securities. Please unmute your line and ask your question.

Richard Sunderland (Analyst at Truist Securities)

Hey, good morning. Yes, Richard, welcome. Great, thanks for having me. Marty, thanks for running through all of the upside case options and paths. You know, it sounds like you have a real eye to additional contract signings. Obviously the construction agreements and broader pipeline behind that speak to that. How are you seeing the pace of conversations unfolding across those two buckets? You know, any sense on just sort of momentum as it stands now relative to kind of progress over the last nine months in forming today’s plan update?

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, Richard, it’s a great question. Look, you know, we are seeing progress. We did see, you know, 600 megawatts move from interconnection studies to construction agreements in Missouri. We thought that was positive. Frankly, we’re seeing a lot of interest in both Missouri and Illinois in terms of sites that we have that are available for development. And those conversations continue. I think they’re constructive, they’re positive, they’re moving in a good direction.

It’s just always very hard to put a real timeline on when those might convert to energy services agreements. But those conversations are underway and, you know, feel really good about those. As I’ve mentioned before, even the counterparties that we have today, the Amazons and the Googles, you know, have expressed interest in future expansion in our service territory. So we’re working with both developers of, you know, these sites as well as counterparties, ultimate counterparties, to move these forward. So again, hard to put a timeline on them. Conversations are constructive. I am optimistic that in 2027 we’ll see further energy services agreements signed.

But can’t put a definitive timeline on that.

Richard Sunderland (Analyst at Truist Securities)

No, that’s perfect. That’s helpful context and I guess to follow up on that point, you know, it sounds like you’re clear on this five-year plan opportunity. You’ve already guided to kind of an upper end expectation for 28 and 29. So is this the chance to extend that over, you know, 30 and 31? You know, how do you see the upside kind of feathering in over five-year period?

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, Richard, that’s exactly the way I’m thinking about it. You know, over time, if we’re able to sign additional ESAs. I look at it as really strengthening the EPS growth rate in the outer years of this five-year plan and lengthening the period of this strong growth. So I think you’ve got it right. It’s really about lengthening and strengthening as we look ahead to future ESAs. As I said before, again, I think we’ve been appropriately conservative in today’s outlook.

We’ve really only incorporated, you know, the ESAs that we’ve signed, the construction that’s needed to support that, but certainly see upside from there.

Richard Sunderland (Analyst at Truist Securities)

No, that’s great and sorry, a quick follow-up on that. Lengthening and strengthening that the $90 billion plus 10-year plan, what does that roughly equate to on a rate base CAGR basis?

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Well, I’ll let you do the math on that. I think what you’d see is that it provides very good growth beyond the five-year period. Again, lengthening the strong EPS growth rates that we’ve had frankly over the past decade into the next decade. And as I mentioned before, I see upside to that $90 billion as we look at over time as well.

Richard Sunderland (Analyst at Truist Securities)

Great, thank you for all of that.

OPERATOR

Our next question will come from Julian Dumoulin Smith with Jefferies. Please unmute your line and ask your question.

Julian Dumoulin Smith (Analyst at Jefferies)

Good morning team. Thank you guys very much for the time. Marty and team, I’ve learned never to underestimate you guys over the years and yet again you guys come in and more than deliver. So kudos to you guys, honestly.

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Well, thanks, Julian. It’s great to have you on the call.

Julian Dumoulin Smith (Analyst at Jefferies)

Excellent. Well, so look, let me take what you’re putting down. If I can lead with this. We’ve seen the midterms. We’re actively hearing companies talk about pivoting here and specifically some of your customers here. How do you think about your opportunity? You specifically go out of your way to highlight the incremental above the roughly three gigs you signed. How do you think about the timeline there? I know that was specifically asked here a second ago, but has it changed even in recent days?

And then more to the point, when you think about what this looks like in terms of incremental generation, can you handle it? And the reason I raise this is just on the E&C side. We’ve seen just the limits of the sector and what they can deliver. I’m very curious to hear how you think about managing the construction risk at the same time here too. So both the upside case, doubling down with your customers. I’m hearing that very clearly. Clearly our channel checks would suggest that. At the same time, how do you think about managing the construction risk, just given the totality of what you have at hand? And I have a quick follow-up on the back end.

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Okay, Julian. Yeah, look, there was a lot there. I’ll start and then I think I’ll turn it over to Michael. He, in our prepared remarks today, talked a little bit about our preparedness to execute. You started by talking about the election. I would say, as it related to the two states we operate in, I think you’d expect relative stability. Governor Pritzker won reelection in Illinois. There was no gubernatorial election in Missouri. Our commissions are not elected commissions.

So there were no election results there. And while we always have some experience of some turnover in the state legislatures, you know, in both cases the majorities stayed the same post election. So really I would expect relative stability in terms of energy policy in both of the states. And I think that that’s a good backdrop as we think about, you know, prospectively, the growth opportunities, the investment, the growth opportunities that would exist within the two states.

Obviously we’re seeing a lot of this growth that we’re experiencing, sales growth and investment opportunity in Missouri. And so again, would expect relative stability there. And again, I would just say that as we thought about building out this five-year plan, I think appropriately conservative in that we’ve really only reflected the sales that we’ve signed up already, the ESAs that we already have, as well as the investments to support them. So feel very good about the plan, but continue to feel good about our upside now.

You’re absolutely right, really contingent not only on our ability to sign additional ESAs, but to be able to deliver the power that’s needed to support those customers. And at that point, I’ll turn it over to Michael.

Michael Moehn (Sr Executive VP)

Hey, thanks, Marty. Good morning, Julian. Yeah, I would certainly echo Marty’s comments on the political side too. I mean, I think we like to think about infrastructure, economic development as, you know, bipartisan issues, if you will. And so, you know, we’ve had term limits in Missouri for a long time. So you always have turnover, always building new coalitions, new relationships. So all of that will continue. From a generation perspective, we do have a lot going on, as you noted. I mean, in the slides we talked about the 7,600, 7,700 megawatts that we’re building, an 80% increase. Look, we feel good about where we are. We got a lot to do, but the team is executing this plan well. We have two simple cycles that are under construction. We have all the long lead time material, in fact on the plant that’s coming online in 2027. All the, you know, the turbines are here, the generators, they’re sitting on their pads.

So feel good about those. And that construction date in 2027. The Big Hollow Energy Center, same thing. We have, you know, all the long lead time material. We have an EPC contract in place with the same person that’s building, you know, the one in 2027. So feel good about that transition that’s occurring there. And then also from a West Alton perspective, making good progress there. You know, had the long lead time material on this combined cycle. It’s a big plant, 2,100 megawatt contract for a long period of time. We recently executed a construction agreement with our local partners here, both Alberici and McCarthy, long-term partners of ours that have built a lot of generation for us. They’re very involved in our renewable build as well. I mean, I think it’s a great economic development story.

We got Missouri companies building Missouri generation. So again, a lot to do there. But we have, you know, a nationally recognized engineer of record involved in that plant, the same ones, Sargent & Lundy, that’s been involved with both the two simple cycles. Still feel good about that from a design perspective, putting some additional project oversight in place to make sure that we can execute this. From a renewables battery perspective, it’s really a rinse-and-repeat sort of program. Just, you know, again, a lot of discipline around it, standardizing wherever we possibly can. You know, it makes it simple from a design, a construction perspective and then an operating perspective and able to use a number of, again, local EPC contractors to help build with this. So a lot of activity, a lot of economic development which is absolutely great for the region, great for skilled craft.

You know, that part’s incredibly positive. We’re going to have to manage it well. But feel good about where we sit today.

Martin Lyons (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer)

Julian, it’s Marty again. Just one thing to add on to what Michael said and tied to my earlier remarks I mentioned earlier that, you know, when you look at what’s sort of outside of our capital today, which includes some of the resources in the bottom right of slide 12, that’s not to say that we haven’t taken action. In fact, we have taken action to ensure that, to the extent that there were long lead time commitments that we needed to make to lock in our ability to deliver those resources in the 27 to 31 timeframe, we have taken that action.

So I just wanted to make mention of that.

Julian Dumoulin Smith (Analyst at Jefferies)

Excellent. So one small nuance, and first off, thank you. And again, I was more alluding to maybe folks leaving Texas to come to you guys, but maybe with respect to the equity plan just very quickly, that’s what I was thinking, what we’re hearing out there. But really, if I can talk about the equity plan real quickly. You have 13% rate base CAGR here. Your last plan talked about 250 to 300 basis points of equity dilution, give or take. When you think about today, you’re talking, it seems like it implies roughly 300 basis points of dilution.

Is there any chance that you get incremental customer deposits,