Aptiv Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Aptiv (NYSE:APTV) reported third-quarter financial results on Tuesday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.

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Summary

Aptiv delivered Q3 2026 revenue growth of 2% and an EBITDA margin of 18%, with $3.2 billion in revenues.

The company repurchased $230 million in stock during Q3 and plans to repurchase at least $650 million by year-end, returning 100% of free cash flow to shareholders.

Aptiv secured $4 billion in new business awards in Q3, bringing the year-to-date total to over $13 billion, with significant growth in non-automotive markets such as drones and robotics.

The company is on track to achieve $20 billion in bookings for 2026, although award cycles may lengthen due to negotiations on price increases.

Challenges for 2027 include input cost inflation, supply chain constraints, and geopolitical tensions, influencing a cautious revenue outlook.

Aptiv plans to return 100% of free cash flow to shareholders through 2027, driven by perceived undervaluation of their stock.

The company expects revenue growth to re-accelerate in 2028, driven by opportunities in automotive and industrial markets.

Preliminary 2027 guidance indicates flat to slightly positive revenue growth, with significant inflation recovery expected from semiconductor price increases.

Management noted robust supply chain strategies and strategic partnerships, with continued investment in organic growth and technology adoption.

Full Transcript

OPERATOR

Good day and welcome to the Aptiv Q3 2026 earnings call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time I’d like to turn the conference over to Betsy Frank, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Betsy Frank (Vice President, Investor Relations)

Thank you, Jennifer. Good morning, and thank you for joining Aptiv’s third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. The press release and slide presentation can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com. Today’s review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring and other special items, and year over year comparisons are based on Q3 2025 pro forma new Aptiv results excluding the former EDS segment. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release.

Unless stated otherwise, all references to growth rates are on an adjusted year over year basis. During today’s call we will be providing certain forward-looking information that reflects Aptiv’s current view of future financial performance and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings. Joining us today are Kevin Clark, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, and Varun Laroyia, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Kevin.

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Thank you, Betsy, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Starting on slide 3, we delivered solid third quarter financial results, including revenue growth of 2%, which was consistent with the second quarter, and EBITDA margin of 18%. In line with our expectations, we repurchased more than 230 million of stock in the quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to more than 550 million. And we remain active in the fourth quarter and plan to repurchase at least 650 million by year end, returning 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders during 2026.

Shifting to future business, we secured roughly $4 billion of new business awards in the third quarter, bringing our year-to-date total to more than 13 billion, which reflects progress in the following strategic areas. In China we grew bookings by 30%, of which more than 20% are tied to export programs. In intelligent systems, we more than doubled European bookings, addressing the customer mix challenges we’re facing in that region that are weighing on our growth, and we booked $3.8 billion of non-auto awards, more than double the year-ago period.

As we’ve established our presence in new end markets including drones and robotics, the momentum we built in non-automotive markets has led to a significant revenue base that we’re now leveraging to create incremental growth opportunities. We’re on track to generate more than 3 billion in 2026 revenues, including 2 billion in and Telecom and Datacom and diversified industrials. As our revenues in these markets have scaled, so have the opportunities to further leverage the breadth of our product portfolio and the depth of our capabilities.

This is best exemplified by the award we received in July from a leading drone manufacturer that we discussed on our last earnings call and the two robotics awards we secured over the past two quarters, as well as the increased amount of business we’re being awarded in the energy storage and AI data center markets. I’ll talk more about our individual awards this quarter on the next two slides, but looking ahead, we have a large funnel of fourth quarter bookings opportunities and are on track to reach our $20 billion target.

That said, award cycles may lengthen as we finalize negotiations on commercial recoveries and the pass-through of price increases, which we expect to increase meaningfully in 2027. Now let’s review our business segments through the lens of the automotive and non-automotive end markets we serve. Starting with the automotive market on slide 4, we continue to expand and diversify our OEM customer base, creating a more resilient revenue stream. Notable program launches in the quarter included our next-gen L2 ADAS smart camera for a leading Chinese OEM’s exports to the European market.

The solution combines a Chinese SoC, Wind River Kaiwu RTOS, a vision stack from StradVision, and Aptiv software features, all brought together through Aptiv’s global ADAS integration, validation, and safety capabilities to deliver a cost-effective ADAS solution that meets stringent 2026 European NCAP 5-star safety standards. This solution demonstrates the power of our open, flexible, and modular ADAS architecture and our ability to deploy technology from China in global markets.

This is just the first of other planned launches with this OEM for export into the European market; high-speed cable solutions for the flagship SUV and truck program of a North American OEM and a Korean OEM’s next-generation EV platform; multiple advanced radar programs across Korean and major Japanese OEMs, reflecting our continued growth and technology adoption across global vehicle programs; a zonal controller with integrated functionality from multiple premium electric vehicle brands at a leading Chinese OEM; and high-voltage interconnect solutions deployed across multiple leading OEMs and flagship EV platforms.

We also secured several important new business awards in the quarter, including two strategic ADAS awards with a China-based global EV market leader for deployment across its next-generation intelligent driving platforms in 2027. First, an L2 ADAS system incorporating a localized technology stack and components, and second, a next-gen radar solution enabling L2 functionality secured on an accelerated development timeline. These awards highlight Aptiv’s flexibility in delivering innovative, high-performance technologies tailored to regional needs and evolving customer strategies.

A conquest award for high-performance cable management products highlighting continued adoption across leading Japanese OEM platforms; another award for our modular connector portfolio for a leading European OEM’s next-generation modular vehicle architecture; and lastly, two integrated cockpit controller awards for Chinese OEM export programs, further strengthening our competitive position as these customers expand globally. Moving to slide 5, discuss our product progress in non-automotive markets, where new business awards further strengthen our confidence in the growth potential of these markets. We continue to deepen our network of strategic partnerships during the third quarter, including an expanded partnership with NVIDIA, which brings together NVIDIA’s edge platforms and active sensing compute, software, and systems integration capabilities to accelerate the deployment of production-ready physical AI and intelligent edge systems; and a partnership with Samsung, leveraging our Wind River cloud platform solution to support the advancement of AI RAN in Korea. During the quarter we also executed multiple new program launches across our portfolio of high and low voltage interconnect products for a leading commercial vehicle manufacturer. Collectively, these launches reinforce the applicability of our portfolio across vehicle architectures. Lastly, we launched our first radar program for a major commercial vehicle OEM in North America.

A few notable new business awards in the third quarter included an award in China for humanoid robots incorporating high-performance compute and interconnect technologies; high-performance interconnect connectivity solutions for data center and battery energy storage applications, reinforcing our portfolio supports next-gen AI infrastructure; an award in the medical device industry providing high-performance cable assemblies for critical patient care applications where reliability and performance are paramount; and lastly, a key software award with a leading telecom equipment provider supporting a range of critical network infrastructure applications.

Turning to slide 6, I want to take a minute to talk about the setup for 2027 before Varun walks you through the numbers, starting with the challenges, which we believe present risks to third-party vehicle production forecasts. First, the industry is experiencing significant input cost inflation for memory chips. The favorable pricing we secured for our customers in 2026 will not repeat in 2027. We’re well ahead of this headwind in 2026 due to our robust supply chain strategy.

We began investing in buffer stock inventory in early ’25 for select customers who are interested in the added insurance, and over the same period we’ve met regularly with these customers to flag our expectations for supply constraints and material inflation, including on semiconductors and memory chips. As you’d expect, these customers are now more strategically positioned to mitigate any supply constraints, which are starting to affect OEM production schedules.

On top of this, broader commodity inflation and tariffs continue to increase input costs. Second, regarding assumptions for vehicle production, we believe ongoing supply chain constraints will continue to lead to intermittent production disruption. Affordability pressures from the combination of higher MSRPs and lease rates could weigh on consumer demand and could translate to lower vehicle production. And the conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as evolving global trade and tariff policies across Europe, the US, Mexico, and China, could further increase input costs and exacerbate current supply-demand imbalances.

Our outlook for 2027 is also influenced by current revenue headwinds driven by two luxury German OEMs that will continue through the fourth quarter of next year and largely abate in 2028, which Varun will touch on shortly. So as we position our business, we’re taking a more cautious posture. But these challenges have also presented several opportunities. Our resilient global supply chain, which we execute on a regional basis, includes dual sourcing and validation of product alternatives and is backed by a digital twin that covers 95% of all the parts we procure mapped down at least four supply tiers and covers 99% of the semiconductors we purchase mapped down at least five supply tiers. And to the extent our customers face increased cost pressure, the resiliency of our supply chain enhances the value of our advanced technology solutions, which are high-performing, open-architected, scalable, and cost-effective.

As a proof point, last week we received a customer award that draws on all of our strengths, resulting in significant incremental ADAS content, replacing competitors’ high-cost vision parking and surround-view monitoring systems with a fully integrated Aptiv ADAS platform built on our smart camera with latest-generation DDR5 memory for supply resilience that incorporates the vision solution from our partner StradVision and Aptiv’s full L2+ ADAS parking and in-cabin software and hardware tech stack.

The challenging environment is creating incremental opportunities for our high-performance, cost-effective solutions. Although the impact on revenue will be more pronounced in 2028, outside of the automotive market, we’re finding significant opportunity in the energy storage, data center, robotics, and aerospace and defense markets. By leveraging our world-class supply chain capabilities as well as our portfolio of compute, perception systems, and high-speed interconnects, Varun will share more on how all this is shaping our 2027 financial outlook.

So with that I’ll hand it over to Varun.

Varun Laroyia (EVP & CFO)

Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 7 with our third quarter financial results, we delivered revenues of $3.2 billion, which grew at an adjusted rate of 2%, consistent with the prior quarter. The results include 11% growth in non-automotive and a 1% decline in automotive. Looking at revenue growth by region, North America grew 5% driven by strength in both our Intelligent Systems and Engineered Components segments. In Europe, revenue was down 5% driven by a decline in the Intelligent Systems business, where revenue was impacted by weakness with two luxury German OEMs, which we expect to persist through the end of 2027.

This was partially offset by growth in the Engineered Components segment, and in Asia Pacific revenue increased 5%, including 13% growth in Asia ex-China, mainly driven by growth in India, and 1% growth in China driven by continued momentum in Intelligent Systems, which grew for the second consecutive quarter. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $567 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 140 basis points due to product mix, including lower software revenues and the timing of engineering credits, unfavorable commodities partially offset by favorable FX, and investments in both segments directed towards organic growth initiatives. Earnings per share was $1.42, a decrease of $0.06, reflecting lower operating income offset by the benefit of share repurchases and lower tax expense.

Free cash flow for the quarter was $194 million, which brings year-to-date pro forma free cash flow to $44 million. I’ll talk more in a moment about full-year expectations, though our pacing through Q3 is consistent with our outlook for the full year given the separation costs incurred in the first half of the year related to the spin of our Electrical Distribution Systems business, inventory investments to ensure supply chain resiliency, and seasonality.

Moving to Slide 8 to cover segment-level financials. In Intelligent Systems, revenue of $1.4 billion was down 3%, mainly driven by Europe and partially offset by growth in North America and Asia Pacific. Sensors and compute revenues were lower by 2% owing to softness in automotive; software and services declined 11% in line with our forecast that we updated last quarter. Automotive revenues were down 4% driven by program roll-offs and lower exports to China with two German luxury OEMs, and excluding these would have resulted in growth of 5% for the segment.

Non-automotive revenues grew 3% reflecting 15% growth in sensors and compute, partially offset by weakness in software and services. Intelligent Systems adjusted EBITDA margin contracted by 240 basis points, driven primarily by the lower revenues in higher-margin software and services and the timing of engineering credits, partially offset by performance initiatives. Moving to Engineered Components. Revenue of $1.8 billion grew 6% versus the prior year, with growth across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. Automotive revenues grew 2%, while non-auto markets grew 16%, mainly driven by growth in diversified industrials. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 100 basis points, reflecting commodity headwinds partially offset by flow-through on higher volume.

Turning to Slide 9 for our 2026 financial guidance. As a reminder, our guidance is based on pro forma numbers which are available on the Investor Relations website under the Quarterly Financials section. And for the full year, we are maintaining our income statement guidance from last quarter with the key metrics unchanged at the midpoint, the revenue range narrowed. On free cash flow, we are narrowing the range for the full year and lowering the midpoint by $25 million to $650 million.

The initial $450 million drag on free cash flow associated with spin-related costs and supply chain resiliency is now $500 million, with separation costs slightly lower than planned and inventory investments higher owing to inflation. For the fourth quarter, we forecast revenue of $3.2 billion at the midpoint, representing adjusted growth of 3%. The sequential step-up in revenue growth of 1% reflects production recovery at a North American OEM and higher commercial vehicle revenues, offset by lower vehicle production. And I would also note that software and services revenues are forecast to be lower year-on-year in line with the third quarter decline owing to the timing of enterprise awards.

We expect adjusted EBITDA of $612 million and margin of 19.4% at the midpoint. The sequential step-up in margin is driven by customer recoveries, engineering performance benefits including credits, and manufacturing performance. For earnings per share, our guidance implies $1.45 at the midpoint. I’d like to conclude by sharing our initial thoughts on the 2027 financial outlook. As Kevin shared, we are planning for challenges to vehicle production. Third-party forecasts as of September are calling for flat vehicle production globally. In our framework for production assumptions, we’ve anchored the top end of our range to this flat scenario, which we think is optimistic given our expectations for supply constraints and significant input cost inflation related to semiconductors, including memory chips, broader commodity inflation, and overall affordability pressures.

Our results will be impacted by two further items. First, pricing and recoveries, where higher semiconductor prices will create a revenue benefit. Currently we are estimating approximately $700 million in inflation related to semiconductor prices, primarily memory. The second impact relates to our Intelligent Systems business, which will continue to be impacted by weakness with the two German luxury OEMs owing to net program roll-offs that conclude at the end of 2027 and lower production assumptions for exports to China.

Beyond these items, our assumptions for revenue growth incorporate an incremental element of conservatism which we believe is appropriate at this stage. Regarding bottom-line impact, the recoveries will be neutral to EBITDA but create margin dilution given the lack of margin on higher prices being passed through. We will provide more details when we issue formal guidance next quarter. Outside of the points I mentioned, we expect it will be a flat to slightly positive year driven by the combined impact of revenues ex-recoveries, continued growth in non-automotive markets, investments supporting organic growth, and performance initiatives.

With that, I will turn the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Thanks, Varun. I’ll wrap up on Slide 11. I want to close by underscoring that regardless of the near-term challenges, we continue to see significant long-term opportunity in our business supported by our differentiated portfolio of advanced technologies. We’re confident that the strategy we’ve built serving the automotive market positions us well as the industry adapts and evolves. We’re also confident in our opportunity beyond automotive, where we continue to make organic investments across both business segments to accelerate our penetration.

Building on the momentum we’ve already established, the opportunities in the auto and industrial markets underpins our expectations that our revenue growth re-accelerates in 2028. This confidence, combined with what we believe is a disconnect between the intrinsic value of our stock and its current trading value, is leading us to prioritize share repurchases in our capital allocation strategy, which means we plan to return 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders through at least the end of 2027, consistent with what we’re doing in 2026. As we focus on unlocking shareholder value, we’re evaluating the composition of our business and product portfolio, and we will provide an update in the first quarter of 2027.

In summary, we’re focused on shareholder value creation through strong operating execution, disciplined capital allocation, and portfolio optimization. Operator, let’s now open the line for questions.

OPERATOR

Thank you. If you’d like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star-one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. We request that you limit your questions to one initial with one follow-up so that we may take as many questions as possible. Again, press star-one to ask a question. We’ll pause for just a moment to allow everyone an opportunity to signal.

We’ll take our first question from Dan Levy with Barclays.

Dan Levy (Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. Wanted to start first with the growth outlook, and you know if you back out obviously the $700 million, it implies growth is roughly flat. Maybe you can just help for ’27. Maybe you could just help us understand some of the moving pieces. I know you said that it’s being weighed down by the reduced export business from Europe to China. What are the offsets that you’re seeing there in terms of maybe some of your non-auto business doing well and perhaps other pieces of the backlog or bookings that may be launching?

So just some puts and takes within the growth to help us understand what’s otherwise sort of a flat growth outlook ex the recoveries.

Varun Laroyia (EVP & CFO)

Certainly, Dan. It’s Varun Laroyia here. Thanks for the question. Listen, with regards to 2027, this is a preliminary outlook, and I do want to state, given the points that Kevin and I raised, with regards to the base case being at the top end of our range, we think is optimistic, specifically given supply constraints, input cost inflation, broader commodity inflation, affordability pressures—that’s kind of point number one. But as we think about the overall mix of our businesses, listen, we remain confident in our growth outlook for non-automotive that, as you’ve seen now for the past several quarters, is performing well. We expect that to continue, and that’s backed up also by the bookings that we’ve seen, which have essentially doubled up on a year-over-year basis. So we feel good about that.

The automotive business, which accounts for three quarters of our revenues at this point of time, that essentially is the challenge with regards to what the vehicle production outlook is for the points that I just mentioned. As we think about areas where we are making progress: North America and also Asia Pacific, China—you know, Intelligent Systems in China now for the second quarter has delivered a second consecutive quarter of growth given a weak domestic environment, and you know, our bookings on export platforms continue to increase.

The final point I’ll share from a growth algorithm is essentially our European business and Intelligent Systems specifically, where we’ve talked about the fact that we’ve been impacted by net new programs. This includes the roll-offs and then also the two German luxury OEMs, which have exports from the EU into China being impacted. We expect that to persist through the end of 2027 before returning to growth in ’28.

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Yep, maybe. Dan, it’s Kevin. I’ll just add Varun’s comments. That’s okay. Listen, high level as we look at the market today, it’s certainly dynamic and Varun talked about the baseline off of IHS and then the downside of vehicle production down. In addition to that, we’re concerned with respect to supply chain constraints, that we’re going to see some intermittent supply chain disruption — actually an increase in supply chain disruption — and that will have an impact both on vehicle production revenue growth as well as just overall operating efficiency.

So that’s something that we’re watching very, very closely now. We’re in a very good position to manage through that. However, we don’t have the same visibility across the supply base and the OEM base to fully understand how well they’re positioned. We mentioned the headwind from the European OEM — that headwind will continue through the end of 2027. So I would say those are the overall kind of negatives that I’d look at. Positives: look at bookings — bookings are strong. The mix of bookings, with, as Varun touched on, China local OEMs both for export out of China into Europe and elsewhere. Specific programs we’re working on now with European OEMs with respect to some of the China-based solutions or technologies that they plan on implementing in the European and other global markets — those are significant opportunities.

And again, the strength we’re getting out of non-automotive is very strong. Underneath all of that though, we just overlaid an incremental level of conservatism above and beyond the range of flat to down from a vehicle production standpoint, just to ensure that we captured anything that we could reasonably envision occurring in a market as dynamic as this market. So I think there is an element of a reconciling item that I would just characterize as a fairly significant level of conservatism as it relates to our outlook, just given the environment.

OPERATOR

We’ll take our next question from Joe Spak with UBS.

Joe Spak (Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning everyone. Just first question, just want to start back on the 700 million of recoveries that you’re talking about for — I understand it’s preliminary — but how set is that number in terms of the conversations you’ve been having with your customers? You made it seem like that’s equal to your cost headwind because I think you said the margin impact is just sort of dilution. So I want to make sure you don’t think there’s going to be any leakage, so to speak, from the commodities, or is some of that leakage embedded in that other 30 basis points impact you talked about from commodities and FX?

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, I would answer it this way. Joe, it’s Kevin. Listen, just given the order of magnitude of the inflation, one. Two, we’ve been having discussions with our customers for the last, I would say, six to nine months with respect to sizing the potential risk and the negotiations we’re having with respect to — obviously we can’t absorb this cost, and if our OEM customers want parts, they need to sign up for the increased prices related to semiconductors.

So that’s certainly our posture with our customers. That’s the position that we’re taking, and our commercial organization is executing on that plan.

Joe Spak (Analyst)

Okay, second question, Varun, just if you look at the preliminary ’27, looks like EBITDA is fairly flat year over year. You’re talking about 100% of free cash flow being returned next year. Any guidance or commentary on capex plans? Should that be pretty flat? And what about working capital? Because I can imagine that being a little bit more of a headwind given the higher-cost inventory and maybe some timing issues with the receivables and recoveries.

But any color there would be helpful so we can calibrate, you know, the potential free cash flow return.

Varun Laroyia (EVP & CFO)

Yeah, Joe, I think that’s a great question given the recoveries aspect of it. As Kevin mentioned, good conversations taking place with our customers. And it’s not just the point about recovering the cost inflation, but also the net working capital impact. I will not be giving a cash number here, but what I will share with you are a few elements within the framework. So, for example, when you think about 2026 and the EDS spin-related separation costs, we do not expect those to reoccur in 2027 in this preliminary view at this point of time.

With that being said, with the inflation moving up, that essentially is what we are working through with our customers. Without getting their support and commitments, we cannot ship parts. So we need those commitments coming through, including from a funding perspective. Beyond that, as you can imagine, we are taking a fine-wire brush, working through capex plans and other elements to ensure wherever we can be more judicious about non-contracted capital expenditures, we are working through that piece, including working with our supplier communities and looking at structures whereby we could mitigate some of that net working capital impact.

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

I would say, Joe, maybe again getting back to the comment of the question that was asked earlier. Listen, operationally we have plans to address any of these sort of headwinds — whether it’s inflation, whether it’s investment in inventory — which, you’re right, given the inflation, that would be a natural outcome. However, we have offsets in capex and expense, in payables, in other areas of inventory that we have in place to drive that investment down.

And then on top of that, although our plans and our intentions are, you know, our customers compensate us for all these investments, I mentioned we’ve incorporated an incremental level of conservatism into our outlook as it relates to 2027 to contemplate things that we don’t have perfect line of sight to, sitting here in early November at this point in time.

Joe Spak (Analyst)

Yeah, very fair. Thank you.

OPERATOR

We’ll go next to Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley.

Andrew Percoco (Analyst)

Great, thanks for taking the question this morning. I just want to stick to 2027 here for one more second. When we think about the preliminary revenue outlook, I just want to make sure I understand the moving pieces here. It sounds like you’re taking essentially market growth and assuming growth under market. Is that a fair way to interpret the preliminary revenue guidance for 2027, and that’s essentially offset by non-auto growth? I just want to make sure I understand the conservatism and the moving pieces baked into the revenue guidance specifically for 2027 as it relates to the auto business.

Varun Laroyia (EVP & CFO)

Andrew? Yes, it’s Varun out here. Yes. If you think about kind of the range, we start off with the base assumption — these are the September third-party forecasts. So starting with that, that’s at the top end of our range, and then below that is essentially where we are ranging it, given the various elements from a macro perspective, but also supply constraints among other things. So that is correct.

Andrew Percoco (Analyst)

Okay, that’s helpful. And then maybe if you could just talk a little bit about the incremental margin that you’re assuming before some of the recoveries — obviously pretty strong relative to what you’ve seen this year. So can you just maybe talk through what some of the assumptions are there in terms of what’s the driver of the improvement in the incremental margins as we go into 2027?

Varun Laroyia (EVP & CFO)

Yeah, listen, let me start. Kevin, you can certainly add if you have any additional comments. So putting aside the point of dilution from recoveries related to material inflation, our overall incremental margin algorithm of the 26 to 27 points on revenue growth ex-recoveries — that remains. Right. So starting off with that, given the broader inflation on commodities — oil, copper, gold, silver — and obviously the impact into resin, that’s some of the FX in commodities and other commodity inflation that we’re seeing, which essentially we plan to offset through performance initiatives.

But that’s really how you should think of it. The overall growth algorithm for incremental revenue has not changed, but we’re just highlighting the fact that there will be a margin dilution effect associated with the recoveries that we anticipate coming through the top line.

Andrew Percoco (Analyst)

Okay, thanks so much guys.

OPERATOR

We’ll go next to Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

Mark Delaney (Analyst)

Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. I wanted to better understand what’s happening in China, and with bookings on China exports at over 20% of the mix year to date, can you help us better understand what that means for revenue for transports next year compared to what I think was about 10% this year? Maybe more importantly, if you could also touch on the margins on that business that you’re winning. Are there different margins associated with the recent bookings?

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, Mark, it’s Kevin. It’s a good question. The China team has done a great job as it relates to commercial pursuits, quite frankly across both business segments’ portfolio. A lot of our discussion more recently has obviously been with respect to the Intelligent Systems segment and their impact as it relates to exports out of China and the platforms they’re on. This year, I believe it’s roughly 10% of our revenues are on export platforms from China into Europe and elsewhere, again within the Intelligent Systems segment.

Next year, based on bookings, that increases to mid-teens. So we’ve made significant progress. There are more commercial opportunities that they’ll execute on the balance of the year that will likely increase that particular mix of business. And then we’re working with three of the China local OEMs on their current activities as it relates to manufacturing in Europe and South America that will provide incremental benefit. As it relates to margin profile, it’s roughly in line with our overall margin profile. That is dependent on using China-based materials inputs, including China-based SoCs. To the extent one of our customers is interested in a Western-based SoC, obviously that’s a more expensive solution for that particular customer. But to date, as I mentioned by example, we’ve had a lot of success, especially in Europe and Southeast Asia, leveraging the China-based cost structure and design capabilities to meet the needs of Europe and other markets.

Mark Delaney (Analyst)

Thanks for that, Kevin. My other question was about the program roll-offs that you mentioned with the two German luxury OEMs. Maybe the company can size that headwind more quantitatively, and then just the reason for that occurring. Is this a situation where Aptiv didn’t win the follow-on business and maybe needs to adjust its strategy in the future, or is this more about those German OEMs just having some challenges internationally? I think you think about China, and maybe those vehicle models just aren’t being continued in the future.

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, it’s, it’s, it’s. There’s an element of both, quite frankly. So it’s two luxury German OEMs. It’s a significant part of our—I would say in Europe we are overweight German OEM revenue mix. About a third of the headwind in 2027 comes from just softer schedules, principally on export platforms. So I think you probably can guess who they are based on historical dependence upon the China market for the premium brands as a place of business. So that’s about a third of it.

The balance is a mix of legacy program that we won some replacement business. We alluded to it in our earnings call—that replacement business initially was going to be run across another vehicle brand. So the runoff of that particular program would be partially offset by the launch that actually started last quarter on one of the luxury brands but did not end up launching on the second vehicle platform. And we alluded to it in the last quarter earnings call—that’s had an impact as well.

So that would account for roughly a little over a third of the balance. And I think the total value is kind of a couple hundred million dollars. $250 to $300 million of headwind.

OPERATOR

We’ll go next to Emanuel Rosner with Wolfe Research.

Emanuel Rosner (Analyst)

Great, thank you so much. First, starting with the expected $700 million in inflation recovery in 2027. I think in the past we’ve quantified your memory buy at around $175 million. So 700 million would potentially be four times that. So can you just maybe clarify what’s in that 700 million? Is that literally sort of like a 4x inflation, or are there other pieces that are going into it?

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, it’s mostly memory, Emanuel. It’s Kevin—it’s mostly memory. There’s some semiconductor as well that’s in that number. Those two areas are where we’re seeing the significant inflation. I think, depending on node, price increases on a year-over-year basis are significant. It varies a bit by what technology, quite frankly—what technology that you’re actually using. Some are actually—the year-over-year price increases are actually higher, some lower than that four times that you’re talking about.

Emanuel Rosner (Analyst)

Got it. And then you, Kevin, you concluded your remarks with saying you’re evaluating the composition of our business and product portfolio and you will provide an update in the first quarter of 2027. Can you just talk to that a little bit more? Obviously the update is in the first quarter of 2027, but what are you looking at?

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

We’re looking at our portfolio of businesses, our portfolio of products, with the backdrop and context of current market challenges and market opportunities, our outlook for revenue growth and margin profile, and the competitive position that those businesses are in. I would say, you know, what you would expect, Emanuel—it’s just a deep dive and very detailed evaluation, just given the current environment.

Emanuel Rosner (Analyst)

Understood, thank you.

OPERATOR

We’ll go next to Itay Michaeli with TD Cowen.

Itay Michaeli (Analyst)

Great, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Maybe a first question on the 2027 outlook. Can you share what you’re assuming for China export versus domestic next year? I know this year it’s been a significant drag on overall outgrowth relative to LVP. Maybe just help us with what you’re kind of preliminarily assuming for next year on those fronts.

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, our preliminary estimate is down slightly, Itay, which I think is the expectation of most people given some of what we’re hearing out of Europe. China market flat is kind of our baseline outlook. We have the downside with the China market, or China vehicle production, actually declining. Listen, I think there is a scenario that is out there that exports don’t decline; they just move to different markets—so African continent and elsewhere. But for now, our overall view has been fairly muted—vehicle production across, quite frankly, every region at the top end that Varun walked through, and then, as I said, down 2% in the more conservative scenario.

Itay Michaeli (Analyst)

That’s helpful. And as a quick follow-up, maybe just talk more about the humanoid robot award—I think you mentioned with a Chinese OEM. I’m curious whether that opens up additional awards for humanoids for you.

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, so yes, it does. We’re active in the robotics space across all regions, obviously including China—and in China they’re very much China-based solutions. In Europe and North America they’re very much Western solutions from an input standpoint. We talked about where we bring value: perception systems, high-speed cable assemblies, advanced compute. Those are the principal areas that we’re focused on. We see significant opportunity there. I think, as we’ve talked about in the past, we think the more likely high-volume use case is with AMRs versus humanoids at this point in time. Our view is that’s a more challenging technical challenge. We are working with a few of the humanoid developers both in the US as well as in Europe and in China. But most of our robotics focus is in and around AMRs.

Itay Michaeli (Analyst)

That’s very helpful, thank you.

OPERATOR

We’ll go next to James Picariello with BNP Paribas.

James Picariello (Analyst)

Hi everybody. Just to first revisit Emanuel’s question regarding the 2027 revenue bridge, is the $700 million in recoveries purely a year-over-year figure, or is it relative to the base of $175 million in memory recoveries for 2025, which I believe is incurring a low double-digit percent increase this year? So, you know, is the year-over-year recovery $500 million or $700 million?

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Yep, it’s 700. So the year over year is ’27–’26. And I don’t know if it was a part of your question—as I mentioned in my prepared comments, Jim, the team did a very good job in mid-2025 locking up both supply as well as price on memory. So 2026, as we’ve talked about in the past, the impact on Aptiv as well as our customers was actually relatively minimal from an inflation standpoint, given the nature of the contracts we’ve had. As we head ’26 into 2027, given what seems to be the continued tightness in the memory, obviously prices have increased, again depending upon the technology and the particular supplier of memory.

James Picariello (Analyst)

Got it, that’s clear, thank you. And then can you just share any 2026 guidance color by segment in terms of how you’re thinking about core growth and EBITDA profitability for the fourth quarter here for Engineered Components, Intelligent Systems?

Varun Laroyia (EVP & CFO)

Yeah, James, it’s far enough here. Listen, overall we feel good about the guide we’ve given from an enterprise perspective for the fourth quarter, so that’s going to put that piece out there. From a revenue perspective, I’ll share with you—as I mentioned in my prepared comments, it’s production recovery at a North American OEM that was impacted by a supplier fire a year ago. Our commercial vehicle revenues are robust and, as Kevin mentioned also earlier in his prepared comments, we’ve been winning some good business with next-gen high-voltage and low-voltage programs, so that’s going to continue to come through strongly.

It is offset by lower vehicle production more generally—I think that’s out there in the market in any case. And then obviously the software and services piece also that I called out. Within the two businesses, our Engineered Components business is expected to grow in line to maybe slightly higher than what they have been tracking to. And then our Intelligent Systems business more specifically continues to be impacted by the net program roll-offs that we talked about, but also the exports going from Europe into China. As I mentioned, excluding some of those declines, that segment would have grown. So that continues to impact the Intelligent Systems business.

With regards to margin, as you would have seen, Q3 was still a net price decline for us, and as I mentioned, Q4 it’s customer recoveries, engineering performance benefits, but also engineering credits that typically occur in the fourth quarter, and then some incremental manufacturing and performance initiatives which is going to drive the margin. And that obviously is across both segments.

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, so maybe just to—so Q4 revenue growth increasing. Part of that is a year-over-year comp benefit, so revenue growth increasing. When you look at EBITDA margin and operating margins, as is typical, Q4 is typically our strongest quarter just given timing of engineering rebuilds and customer credits—items like that. So that should translate into the highest EBITDA and operating income margin profile for the quarter. Current outlook has both segments growing from an overall growth standpoint.

And as is typical, the fourth quarter tends to be a stronger margin profile for both businesses, especially the Intelligent Systems business, just given the nature of engineering credits and recoveries there.

OPERATOR

We’ll go next to Tom Narayan with RBC.

Tom Narayan (Analyst)

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. The first one, a follow-up to Mark’s question. Kevin, I think you said 10% of Chinese revenues you guys have around exports, platforms, and Intelligent Systems, and next year you’d get to mid-teens and you’re making significant progress. Just curious how you’re able to do this. You know, other tier ones we talk to say it’s up to the Chinese OEMs to determine what gets exported and what’s used for domestic. Is this something specific to Intelligent Systems where you can impact the Chinese OEM decisions?

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Well, I think what’s important, Tom, is that your engineering organizations, your commercial organizations are deeply embedded with those OEMs, that they understand what their product plans are, what specific programs will be for export, which, as you can imagine, need to be homologated differently. They need to meet different standards. So there’s an element of a different system, different features, maybe some calibration of technology. If you have a strategic relationship with the OEM, or you’re fostering one, you will get visibility to what their product plans are, and then you need to be competitive. It isn’t a matter of one day a vehicle is a domestic platform and then the next day it’s being exported. The homologation requirements, the regulations of, quite frankly, every country require a certain amount of unique items or unique standards that you need to meet.

Therefore, it needs to be contemplated or planned for in advance.

Tom Narayan (Analyst)

Got it. That makes sense. And then as a follow-up to I think Itay’s question on the ’27 China production forecast, your own forecast, it looks like the EU finally has some teeth with some policy changes on Chinese exports. I think I heard you say you expect exports flat from China and then flat to down on total China production. I know S&P has exports down in ’27, but then domestic sales up with overall China production up. Are you guys just being conservative here, or is this what you’re seeing and you expect?

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Yeah, listen, I think there’s a little bit of—at a high level, our general view is exports will be down in China; the domestic market will be flat to up slightly. That’s our view. That’s our baseline assumption that Varun talked about, the starting point. So that is our baseline assumption. We have a second scenario that we referred to where vehicle production is down 2%—that’s comparable for the China market. I think there’s a question of how much those export volumes, or the potential slowdown in export volumes, impact that down 2%. So I would say at this point in time, we’re not that precise.

We would also say, though, in discussions with our Chinese OEMs and the Chinese governments, exports may be down in Europe, but I think their base plans today are they will make up those declining exports in those markets with export elsewhere. So we’ll see how that plays out. As it relates to vehicle production, we try to give investors a range—the baseline that is off of IHS, so that from a comparability standpoint it’s easy to compare what we’re saying to what others are saying. Overlaid on top of that was an incremental level of conservatism as it relates to revenue, earnings, and cash flow that we overlaid on top of that, contemplating some of the challenges that could arise in the market.

And then our second scenario is vehicle production down 2%, which again we overlaid an additional element of conservatism as it relates to revenue, earnings, and cash flow, again to contemplate all the challenges and uncertainty that’s currently going on. So that’s how we’ve bracketed the two, and we’ve included an incremental amount of conservatism to make sure that we could capture everything that we could reasonably contemplate from an outcome in 2027 or an environment in 2027.

Got it. Thanks for providing the ’27 guidance.

OPERATOR

That will conclude today’s question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Kevin Clark for any additional or closing remarks.

Kevin Clark (Chair and Chief Executive Officer)

Thank you, everyone, for your time this morning. We look forward to following up with you following this earnings call. Take care and have a nice day.

OPERATOR

The call is now complete, and thank you for joining.

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