Prspctr

Esteban - what is the lockout period dates? I believe you mean that the trading window is ending, right? Employees are already selling shares adding to the down pressure. I suspect it will end in another 1-2 weeks

Being down 8% seems to be a badge of honor today

TLDR Google needs Reddit to stay relevant and differentiate, not vice versa

Google sends traffic to Reddit because users want to go there. They intentionally type “Reddit” en masse.

This is very different than Google taking traffic away from commoditized news sites like NYT, WaPO, CNN etc.

Google can’t just steer traffic elsewhere because users will simply start using other AI engines - Perplexity, ChatGPT, etc. - to get the authentic UGC answers they want.

Search has been disrupted by AI, and by users’ shifting need for authentic content. Reddit is gaining from these tail winds.

@grasshopper What would we do without such insights…
How about you compare Reddit with Pinterest Snap or Yelp, as opposed to hyperscalers. Look up the concept of comparables

CFO in earnings call said diluted shares dipped a bit. At 200M shares, if 10% of their MAU (36M users) bought 5 shares each ($1000), the company would be owned by those users (36B$ market cap).

DAU is not mission critical for Reddit at this stage, as it is for other early stage companies. When you have 365M+ WAU and 500M+ MAU, with trusted data and engagement, it’s just not interesting to react to a 1% change caused by some Google algorithm.

Making $1 per month from each WAU would put Reddit at 4.3B$ in revenue at a 90% margin. I don’t know what else to say here.

“DAU somewhat lower but Revenue and income higher” means they are monetizing users much better. Ads engine is doing well which is great news.

Google algo caused DAU volatility. That’s fine. With Reddit answers and other features, that can be mitigated.

Should recover.

“fwank” that’s such a solid insight. Go ahead and sell short to $20

@Esteban Thanks for sharing - I follow what you post on rddt, always helpful. In this case - I’m skeptical of these guys. Sounds like they’re just trying to play the volatility and excitement.

“Karman Line Capital is a volatility arbitrage hedge fund based in Chicago, Illinois. It specializes in improving investment returns through unique derivative trading strategies. The firm was founded in 2015 and is led by Mark Sebastian, who serves as the Chief Investment Officer. Karman Line Capital focuses on options trading and risk management, leveraging expertise in market volatility478.
The firm operates with a small team and generates approximately $1 million in revenue annually”

“z money” How do you know 2025 revenue?