D-Wave Quantum’s Growing Interest In System Sales Bodes Well For 2027 Shipments, Analyst Says

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE:QBTS) shares are surging on Wednesday, supported by broader market strength and a sector-wide rally in AI infrastructure stocks following CoreWeave Inc.’s (NASDAQ:CRWV) blowout third-quarter results. The Nasdaq is up 2.88% while the S&P 500 has gained 1.45%.

D-Wave Quantum reported third-quarter results on Tuesday, missing Rosenblatt Securities‘ forecasts despite delivering a mixed performance against Wall Street consensus estimates. Analyst John McPeake named year-to-date bookings as the highlight heading into the fourth quarter.

According to the note, bookings rose 611% from a year earlier, largely because of a $20 million sale to Florida Atlantic University (FAU). McPeake kept a Buy rating on the stock but cut his price forecast to $30 from $43, citing the timing of machine revenue and a more gradual ramp in Quantum Computing-as-a-Service (QCaaS), a model in which customers access D-Wave’s quantum computers through its cloud platform.

Bookings And Revenue

McPeake wrote that D-Wave Quantum revenue slightly exceeded unguided Street forecasts but fell short of Rosenblatt’s estimates, noting that quarterly revenue is difficult to predict.

D-Wave said the dollar value of its sales pipeline increased more than 75% from the second quarter and more than tripled year over year, driven by demand for its Advantage annealing systems. Annealing is D-Wave’s quantum computing approach to solving optimization problems.

Gross margin also missed forecasts as professional services accounted for a larger share of revenue. McPeake described the business as lumpy and difficult to forecast, citing a large Fortune 100 QCaaS customer that alternates between paid application development, which generates services revenue, and production QCaaS usage.

Machine Timing Shifts

The forecast reduction reflects a change in McPeake’s assumptions about when machine sales are recognized. He had modeled partial revenue recognition for three machines in the fourth quarter but now expects only one, moving another into 2027. The FAU machine is scheduled to ship and come online this quarter.

D-Wave also delivered an Advantage 2 system to Como, Italy, in October. McPeake expects it to come online in the first quarter under an on-premise QCaaS arrangement that could eventually convert to an outright purchase. He said pipeline growth tied to system sales "bodes well for 2027 machine shipments."

Valuation And Catalysts

McPeake maintained his valuation assumptions, applying a 13-times revenue or 27-times earnings multiple to 2035 estimates and discounting the result at 12%. He identified D-Wave’s February Qubits conference as a potential stock catalyst.

The company’s gate-based quantum computing roadmap also remains on track, with its first fully error-corrected logical qubit targeted for 2028.

D-Wave ended the quarter with $503 million in cash and $42 million in debt after using $28 million in cash during the period. It expects to receive $100 million in CHIPS funding, subject to milestones, but had received no funds as of quarter-end.

QBTS Stock Price Activity: D-Wave Quantum shares were up 2.81% at $10.78 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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