AMD Gains 25% Against NVDA in 2 Days: Chip Analyst Says Lisa Su Is ‘at Her Best’

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) shares surged 13.3% Monday following an analyst upgrade and a new Google AI chip deal, while Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) fell 4.3% amid an investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang.

AMD is up around 25% against NVDA since the trading week began.

Days before the rally, semiconductor analyst Jay Goldberg praised AMD CEO Lisa Su’s execution as rivals struggled to secure manufacturing capacity.

“This was Lisa at her best. This is a company that’s executing very well,” Goldberg, of Seaport Research Partners, said on Friday’s recording of The Circuit podcast.

Goldberg said Su sounded unusually optimistic, something he considers significant because she rarely exaggerates.

Why AMD Is Winning the Supply Battle

“If you have capacity, you win and if you don’t have capacity, you get punished,” Goldberg said.

He contrasted AMD with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), which he said has struggled with manufacturing capacity, helping AMD win server market share.

Intel has acknowledged problems ramping chip production, shortages of advanced packaging materials and a factory shutdown in Israel that further disrupted supplies.

AMD, meanwhile, relies on manufacturing partner TSMC. Su told investors the company had spent years securing the production capacity and components needed to meet its growth targets.

Intel CFO David Zinsner effectively acknowledged the competitive stakes, saying on the company’s October earnings call: “I really see market share next year being a function of supply.”

Why CPUs Still Matter for AMD

“CPUs are still a much more important thing than GPUs for AMD,” Goldberg said, highlighting a business that gets less attention than AMD’s push against Nvidia.

Monday’s Google announcement illustrated his point.

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) selected AMD’s EPYC processors to support its new TPU 8tx systems, showing how AMD can benefit even when cloud providers develop their own AI accelerators.

The Google TPU deal coincided with Oppenheimer upgrading AMD to Outperform with a $600 price target, forecasting 135% data-center revenue growth in 2027.

Is a GPU Glut Coming?

Goldberg believes last Thursday’s semiconductor selloff went too far, noting chipmakers are reporting strong orders, while major cloud companies have maintained or increased their spending plans.

But he sees a potential problem further down the road. A wave of new chip factories and data centers is expected to come online in 2028, just as electricity shortages begin to ease.

Some investors worry that could leave the industry with more GPUs than it needs.

“I don’t think we’re there yet,” Goldberg said.

Prediction markets are weighing a nearer-term shakeout. Traders on Polymarket assigned a qualifying AI bubble burst roughly 23% odds by June 2027.

For now, Goldberg sees AMD benefiting from strong demand and the manufacturing capacity it secured ahead of competitors.

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