Barrick Misses Q3 Estimates but Holds Gold Output Guidance; Shares Rise

Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:B) on Monday reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of 82 cents, missing the analyst estimate of 85 cents.

Revenue rose 22% year over year (Y/Y) to $5.073 billion but fell short of the $5.302 billion consensus estimate.

Attributable adjusted EBITDA increased 22% Y/Y to $2.47 billion.

Operating cash flow totaled $2.49 billion, including $1.80 billion in attributable operating cash flow and $640 million in attributable free cash flow. Net cash reached $0.9 billion at quarter-end.

Gold And Copper Production

Barrick CEO Mark Hill said the company delivered four consecutive quarters of improved safety, operational execution and growth project progress while rebuilding investor confidence. He added that Barrick remains on track to meet its 2026 production targets.

Barrick produced 816,000 ounces of gold, up 6% year over year, excluding divested assets. Higher output at Cortez, Carlin and Loulo-Gounkoto supported growth, with the latter increasing production 16% sequentially.

North American operations produced 497,000 ounces of gold, while Barrick International delivered 319,000 ounces of gold and 50,000 tonnes of copper.

However, total attributable gold production declined 2% year over year, reflecting extreme weather at Veladero and delayed access to high-grade ore at North Mara, which is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Productivity gains helped offset higher fuel and consumable costs and local currency appreciation.

Production Costs

Gold cost of sales increased to $1,950 per ounce from $1,562 a year earlier. Total cash costs rose to $1,386 from $1,137, while all-in sustaining costs (AISC) increased to $1,911 from $1,538.

The increases reflected lower ore grades, higher royalties, diesel prices and sustaining capital spending.

Copper cost of sales, C1 cash costs and AISC increased to $3.65, $2.76 and $4.52 per pound, respectively, primarily due to higher diesel prices and local currency appreciation.

2026 Outlook

Barrick maintained its 2026 gold production guidance of 2.90-3.25 million ounces, with:

• Cost of sales of $1,870-$2,070 per ounce.
• Total cash costs of $1,330-$1,470 per ounce.
• AISC of $1,760-$1,950 per ounce.

The guidance is based on a gold price assumption of $4,500 per ounce.

Copper production guidance remains at 190,000-220,000 tonnes, with cost of sales of $3.05-$3.35 per pound, C1 cash costs of $2.20-$2.45 per pound and AISC of $3.45-$3.75 per pound, based on a copper price assumption of $5.50 per pound.

As previously disclosed, Barrick reduced its 2026 attributable capital expenditure forecast to $3.8 billion-$4.2 billion from $4.0 billion-$4.45 billion, primarily due to lower anticipated spending on the Reko Diq project, which remains under review.

Growth Projects And Expansion Updates

Nevada Gold Mines: Barrick is expanding exploration at Cortez and Carlin, optimizing processing capacity and assessing infrastructure improvements. Carlin’s open-pit potential could extend mine life beyond 2050.

Lumwana, Zambia: The mill expansion, expected to double copper production, remains on budget and on schedule for first copper by the end of the first quarter of 2028. All major long-lead equipment has been procured, with key construction milestones targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026. 2026 capital spending is expected to be at the lower end of guidance.

Pueblo Viejo, Dominican Republic: Expansion work continues, with temporary water management structures more than 20% complete. The starter dam permit package is scheduled for submission in the first quarter of 2027, while two of four bridges are under construction. Resettlement is 99% complete.

Shareholder Returns

Barrick returned $1.04 billion to shareholders during the third quarter, comprising $761 million in share repurchases under its $3.0 billion buyback program and its quarterly dividend.

The company declared a quarterly dividend of 17.5 cents per share, payable on Dec. 15, to shareholders of record on Nov. 30.

Its dividend policy targets annualized distributions of 50% of attributable free cash flow through fixed quarterly dividends and a year-end performance-based payout.

Barrick Stock Lags Gold-Mining Peers

Even with Monday’s premarket gain, Barrick shares at $41.72 sit about 24% below their 52-week high of $54.69, set in late January, and are down about 4% so far this year.

The stock has also trailed most precious-metals peers. Through Friday’s close, Barrick was up about 23% over the past year, behind Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. at about 42%, AngloGold Ashanti PLC at 37% and Franco-Nevada Corp. at 36%. It edged out Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., up about 20%, and Gold Fields Ltd., up about 4%.

Analysts have turned more cautious since mid-October. CIBC analyst Anita Soni downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperformer on Oct. 16 with a $49 price target, and Freedom Broker cut it to Hold from Buy on Oct. 22, lowering its target to $46 from $54. JPMorgan went the other way on Oct. 21, keeping an Overweight rating and raising its target to $55 from $52.

Ahead of the open, the stock was trading just below its 200-day moving average of about $41.88 and above its 20-day average of about $39.45.

B Price Action: Barrick Mining shares were up 2.86% at $41.72 during premarket trading on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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