Dan Ives Forecasts 25% Drop In Capital Raises for MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN as 2027 CapEx Peak Sets Up ‘Massive’ Cash Flow Ramp by 2029

Yorkville Ives Partner and Senior Managing Director Dan Ives projects a roughly 25% decrease in capital raises for Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) over the next year, coinciding with a forecasted peak in capital expenditure growth in 2027. Ives anticipates this revised timeline will ultimately trigger a “massive FCF ramp” for these companies between 2029 and 2030.

Capex Growth and Capital Raises

Ives, a Wall Street technology analyst of over 25 years, stated that the capital expenditure growth rate for Big Tech companies will now peak in 2027. He noted this represents a shift, putting the new timeline against his “previous view that would not happen until 2028/2029.”

Concurrently, Ives expects capital raises in Big Tech derived from “debt/equity/ATMs, etc” to be roughly 25% lower over the upcoming year as the broader capex trajectory shifts over the next few years.

Despite the anticipated moderation in the growth rate moving into 2028, Ives clarified that Big Tech and hyperscaler capital expenditures will “still easily exceed $1 trillion in 2027.”

Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon…Free cash flow will trough in 1H2027 and starting in the 2H of next year will start to show a trajectory towards a major rebound in 2028 and massive FCF ramp in 2029-2030. The capital raises in Big Tech from the debt/equity/ATMs, etc will… https://t.co/RKVqTeRhpF

— Dan Ives (@DivesTech) November 5, 2026

Free Cash Flow Trajectory

According to Ives, free cash flow (FCF) for Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon is expected to reach a trough in the first half of 2027.

Starting in the second half of that year, he forecasts these hyperscalers will begin to show a trajectory toward a “major rebound in 2028.” This rebound is expected to lead directly into the projected “massive FCF ramp in 2029-2030.”

AI Bubble Concerns Dismissed

Addressing broader market anxieties regarding heavy artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investments, Ives dismissed the notion of excessive expansion negatively impacting these companies.

Summarizing the impact of the updated capex and free cash flow timelines, he stated that worries regarding an “AI overbuild and bubble now thrown out window.” Ives concluded that this financial setup is ultimately “good for tech names/winners.”

How Have These Stocks Performed?

Stocks	1-Month	6-Months	YTD	1-Year	5-Year
AMZN	3.50%	-4.88%	12.73%	4.00%	47.89%
GOOGL	-18.44%	-27.25%	-9.72%	-0.61%	89.83%
META	-18.44%	0.02%	-8.33%	-4.85%	77.38%
MSFT	2.05%	30.28%	10.82%	5.67%	59.47%

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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