Amazon and Google Could Outperform Nvidia as AI Trade Enters New Phase, Says Joseph Carlson

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) could outperform Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) as AI investors shift from companies selling the hardware to those turning it into revenue, YouTube investor Joseph Carlson argues.

A day after Democrats swept Congress and data-center critics won key races, Amazon jumped 6.1% and Alphabet gained 3.2% Wednesday. Nvidia fell 3.2%, while Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) lost 7%.

Carlson, who shares his roughly $1.5 million stock portfolio with more than 500,000 YouTube subscribers, said it gained about $65,000 Wednesday, likely his biggest one-day gain ever. His Amazon stake alone added roughly $13,000.

Why Carlson Thinks the Winners Are Changing

Chip and memory makers have profited from extraordinary demand and shortages, but Carlson believes those bottlenecks will eventually ease.

In his view, Amazon, Google and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) have something more durable: existing customers to whom they can sell AI services.

“To think that they’re not going to be able to monetize that many connections, I think is absurd,” Carlson said in a Wednesday video.

Carlson owns shares in all three companies. He also sees an upside to slowing data-center construction.

“The fact that this could be slowed down now isn’t bearish for big tech companies. In fact, this makes data centers more scarce,” he said.

Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni made a similar argument on CNBC Thursday, saying a slower AI buildout could actually be bullish for Big Tech by reducing capital spending and improving free cash flow.

Wall Street Joins the Rotation

Goldman Sachs’ trading desk reported a “clear rotation” into major cloud companies among hedge funds and traditional investment funds.

The bank’s technology specialists said Democratic victories could make new facilities harder to build, increasing the value of existing data centers with reliable power.

Amazon and Google could benefit twice from a slower AI buildout. They would spend less on new data centers while their existing computing capacity becomes more valuable.

AWS revenue grew 39% last quarter, while Google Cloud’s more than doubled.

That could be a very different story for Nvidia, which relies on continued demand for new chips. But with quarterly revenue more than doubling to $96.2 billion, there’s little evidence that demand has weakened yet.

On Polymarket, traders now give Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) roughly 60% odds of finishing 2026 as the world’s most valuable company, against 38% for Nvidia, on $9.6 million in trading volume.

Apple surged 5.3% to a record high Wednesday, overtaking Nvidia in market value. Unlike Amazon and Google, Apple has largely avoided massive AI infrastructure spending.

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