Rockwell Automation Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Rockwell Automation (NYSE:ROK) reported fourth-quarter financial results on Thursday. The transcript from the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call has been provided below.

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Summary

Rockwell Automation reported strong financial performance for Q4 and fiscal year 2026, with core sales growth of 7% in Q4 and 9% for the full year, excluding tariff refunds and the Sensia joint venture dissolution.

The company achieved its long-term enterprise operating margin target of 22% and reported adjusted EPS of $3.88 for Q4, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase.

Key growth areas included semiconductor and data centers, which saw substantial demand due to investments in AI infrastructure. The company plans to report these as a combined vertical starting fiscal 2027.

Rockwell Automation’s strategic initiatives include expansion in traditional and emerging markets, with a focus on AI-enabled industrial operations and autonomous systems.

The company projects fiscal 2027 organic sales growth in the 6% to 9% range, with expected adjusted EPS of $15 at the midpoint and an enterprise operating margin increase by about one percentage point.

Management highlighted the importance of new product introductions and productivity improvements in driving growth and profitability.

Challenges such as project timing in mining and ARR growth in Lifecycle Services were noted, with a focus on improving digital transformation offerings.

Rockwell Automation plans to step up investments in digital infrastructure and advanced manufacturing, including new facility construction in the U.S.

Full Transcript

OPERATOR

Thank you for holding, and welcome to Rockwell Automation’s quarterly conference call. I need to remind everyone that today’s conference call is being recorded. Later in the call, we will open up the lines for questions. If you have a question at that time, please press star one. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Aijana Zellner, Head of Investor Relations and Market Strategy. Ms. Zellner, please go ahead.

Aijana Zellner (Head of Investor Relations and Market Strategy)

Thank you, Julianne. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Rockwell Automation’s fourth quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release conference call. With me today are Blake Moret, our Chairman and CEO, and Christian Rothe, our CFO. Our results were released earlier this morning, and the press release and charts are available on our website. These materials, as well as remarks today, will reference non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures are included in both the press release and charts.

A replay of today’s webcast and a transcript of our prepared remarks will be available on our website at the conclusion of today’s call. Before we begin, please note that our comments today include forward-looking statements regarding the expected future results of our company. Our actual results may differ materially due to a wide range of risks and uncertainties described in our earnings release and SEC filings. With that, I’ll hand it over to Blake.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Thanks, Aijana, and good morning, everyone. Before we turn to our fourth quarter results on Slide 3, I’d like to make a few opening comments. First of all, since we’re talking to you from Milwaukee, Wisconsin, it seems only fitting that we congratulate the Milwaukee Brewers on winning the World Series. Fiscal 2026 was a great year for Rockwell Automation too. We delivered growth at the high end of our long-term framework, drove significant margin expansion, and generated strong double-digit earnings growth, all in a year marked by inflationary pressures, tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical volatility.

Our performance reflects the differentiated value resulting from our strategy, offering, and operating model. We’re gaining share in key product areas, and we achieved our long-term enterprise operating margin target of 22% three years after setting the target. I’m especially proud of the unique new products and productivity improvements we’ve delivered over that time. We had a very strong Q4 even before the benefit from tariff refunds received from the U.S. Government, and we initiated a tariff refund program for eligible customers. The net impact reduced reported sales by approximately $85 million and increased adjusted EPS by $0.11. For the clearest picture of our results in the quarter and for the full year, we will detail the impact of the IEEPA tariff refunds on company results. This impact is included in the bridges on Slides 3 and 6, and you’ll find a complete recap on Slide 8 of the earnings deck.

Individual business segment, industry, and regional results do not reflect the impact of tariff refunds. On Slides 3 and 6 you see core growth, which does not include the impact of tariff refunds. That core growth reflects the strength and diversity of our end markets. We continue to perform well in our traditional markets including automotive, food and beverage, energy, and life sciences, while expanding our presence in additional growth areas including semiconductor, data centers, and warehouse automation.

I’m particularly happy with our strong market access across discrete, hybrid, and process industries, positioning us to capitalize on opportunities across a wider range of end markets. Customers continue to turn to Rockwell Automation to improve productivity, resilience, quality, safety, and workforce effectiveness. As industrial operations become more AI-enabled and increasingly autonomous, customers are looking for ways to orchestrate people, AI agents, workflows, and industrial systems in real time.

We believe this represents a significant opportunity for Rockwell Automation and plays directly to our strength. Let’s now turn to our fourth quarter results on Slide 3. Excluding the impact of the tariff refunds and the Sensia joint venture dissolution, core sales grew 7% in the quarter. Remember that we grew double digits in Q4 of fiscal year 25. Demand remained healthy, with sales in all three business segments coming in largely in line with expectations consistent with prior quarters. Products outgrew our longer-cycle solutions business with continued strength in data center, semiconductor, and automotive.

In our Intelligent Devices segment, organic sales were up 5% versus prior year, driven by strong adoption of recent product introductions and year-over-year growth in food and beverage, tire, and semiconductor. The Auto AMR business delivered another quarter of double-digit sales growth and reached profitability as planned, marking an important milestone as we scale our physical AI and autonomous operations capabilities. Software and Control organic sales grew 15%. Logic sales had a strong finish in Q4 with 25% year-over-year growth and mid-single-digit sequential growth. Organic sales in Lifecycle Services were up 2% year over year. Book-to-bill in this segment was 0.97, above our historical Q4 seasonality, with new demand for the energy-focused process automation business that returned to Rockwell Automation following the Sensia dissolution. Organic annual recurring revenue was up 5% year over year, with high single-digit growth in software and low single-digit growth in Lifecycle Services.

While ARR growth did not meet our expectations, renewals remained strong, and we continue to add new customers across industries and regions. A good example is Booster, a German manufacturer of high-precision automotive components, who selected our cloud-native Plex software to accelerate their digital transformation and improve visibility, traceability, and quality across operations. Enterprise operating margin expanded 320 basis points year over year to 24.5%.

This includes over a point of positive impact from tariff refunds. Adjusted EPS was $3.88, up 16% year over year. Price/cost was positive in the quarter and for the full year. Moving to Slide 4 for Q4 industry highlights, sales in Discrete were up 20% year over year with strong growth in semiconductor, data center, and automotive. Automotive sales grew 15% versus prior year and delivered its strongest quarter in two years, as customers increasingly standardized on our software, controls, and MES platforms to support next-gen manufacturing programs. E-commerce and warehouse automation sales were up high single digits in the quarter against a difficult comparison, as we grew 70% in the prior year.

Importantly, underlying demand remained healthy, driven by continued modernization investments. For the full year, e-commerce and warehouse automation grew nearly 30%, marking another year of exceptional growth and reinforcing our confidence in the long-term opportunity. Semiconductor sales were up almost 50% year over year. Semi and data center business continues to see strong demand from investments in AI infrastructure and next-generation computing capacity, driving demand for our automation, software, and power management solutions.

With data center having scaled into a meaningful business for Rockwell Automation, we will begin reporting semiconductor and data center as a combined vertical beginning in fiscal 2027. Together these markets represent about 10% of our revenue and are supported by powerful long-term growth drivers. Our Q4 win with QTS, a leading hyperscale data provider, highlights the expanding role Rockwell Automation is playing in data centers. As QTS scales capacity to support AI-driven demand, the company is standardizing on Rockwell Automation’s technologies across automation, cybersecurity, asset management, and digital infrastructure, positioning us to capture a broader share of spend and participate in future build-outs across its global footprint.

Moving to our hybrid industries, sales in this segment grew mid single digits with strong growth in life sciences and tires. Food and beverage sales were up low single digits in the quarter and finished the year with mid single-digit growth. Customer investment remained focused on productivity, cost reduction, and operational resilience. Manufacturers continue to invest in automation and digital transformation initiatives to improve efficiency and operating performance.

We’re also seeing capacity investments in areas of strong consumer demand at Carry Ingredients, a global nutrition solutions provider. Our process control, power, and production optimization capabilities are supporting a significant capacity expansion and future growth. Life sciences sales grew high single digits versus prior year. Looking ahead, we see a healthy pipeline of capacity expansion and infrastructure projects, with growing adoption of MES and process automation solutions creating opportunities across our entire portfolio.

A great example of this is Stryker, a leading medical device manufacturer, who selected Rockwell Automation’s integrated control and motion technologies to create a standardized platform to support future growth. Moving to Process, our sales here were up low single digits, with continued growth in energy and metals partially offset by tougher prior-year comps in mining and chemicals. Energy sales were up high single digits in the quarter. While capital deployment remains disciplined, customers continue to invest in projects that enhance reliability and energy security, supporting a healthy pipeline across oil and gas, nuclear, and renewables.

We see a particularly attractive opportunity in LNG, where global investments in new export capacity and infrastructure modernization are closely aligned with Rockwell Automation’s growing capabilities in automation, software, and cybersecurity for these applications. One example is Paranco’s Cap Lopez LNG development in Gabon. Rockwell Automation was selected by Dickstone, a global EPC company, to provide an integrated suite of automation, process safety, operator training, and motor control solutions for this large-scale energy project.

Mining sales were down about 10% due to project timing and prior-year comps. Customer investment remains focused on increasing production, improving productivity, and enhancing operational resilience. We continue to see a strong pipeline tied to copper, lithium, iron ore, and other critical minerals, where investments in capacity expansion and autonomous operations are creating an attractive long-term opportunity across our portfolio. A great example of a recent win in mining is with Vale, one of the world’s largest mining companies, who chose Rockwell Automation as a strategic modernization partner at its Corajas mining complex to create a scalable blueprint for future infrastructure upgrades supporting Vale’s goals around safety, reliability, and production growth.

Let’s turn to Slide 5 for our Q4 organic regional sales. We saw another quarter of strong year-over-year growth across most of our regions. The U.S. was our strongest geography in the quarter and for the full year ending fiscal 26, with over 12% organic growth. We expect North America to continue to be our fastest growing region in fiscal 2027. Moving to Slide 6 for key highlights of full year fiscal 2026. As you can see, we had a strong fiscal 26 with our core sales up 9% versus prior year. Organic ARR grew 5% with high single-digit growth in our software ARR. We had enterprise operating margin over 22% for three straight quarters and will update our long-term margin targets at the upcoming investor day. Adjusted EPS grew over 20% year over year. Free cash flow conversion of 113% exceeded our expectations for the year.

Let’s now turn to Slide 7 to review our fiscal 2027 outlook. We enter fiscal 2027 from a position of strength. Demand across both our traditional and emerging end markets remains healthy, and customers continue to invest in productivity, resilience, and more autonomous operations. We expect our organic sales growth for the year to be in the 6% to 9% range. The midpoint of our guide assumes a seasonal sequential decline in Q1 followed by gradual improvement through the remainder of the year.

Christian will provide more detail in his section. Annual recurring revenue is expected to grow 7% next year. We expect our enterprise operating margin to increase by about a point and adjusted EPS to be $15 at the midpoint. We expect free cash flow conversion of 100% in fiscal year 27. I’ll now turn it over to Christian for more detail on our Q4 and financial outlook for fiscal 27. Christian.

Christian Rothe (Chief Financial Officer)

Thank you, Blake, and good morning, everyone. Before I walk through our fourth quarter results, I want to direct your attention to Slide 8 and address the impact of the IEPA tariff refunds first. We received $103 million of tariff refunds from the government, representing the vast majority of IPA tariffs we previously paid, along with $5 million of related interest. Second, we initiated a customer refund program for price increases we previously implemented to recover tariff costs.

Based on our estimated redemption rate, we recorded $85 million of refunds to customers, reflected as a reduction to unallocated sales on our P&L. Slide 8 provides additional details on these items, including the interest benefit. All of these impacts are reflected in adjusted EPS and net of a related $8 million nonrecurring charge on the tax effect. The net tariff refund impact is $0.11 in the quarter and for the full year fiscal ’26. For presentation purposes and clarity, all tariff refund activity is being reported in other unallocated items in the P&L. This preserves the presentation of our segment results.

With that context, let’s turn to our fourth quarter results on Slide 9. Fourth quarter reported sales were up 1% versus prior year with organic sales up 3%. As Blake mentioned earlier, our core sales growth in the quarter was 7%. The currency impact was neutral. Price contributed about two and a half points to organic growth, with minimal incremental tariff-related pricing as we lap prior year actions. Full-year price realization was similar to the fourth quarter.

Price/cost was positive in the quarter, and tariff price/cost has remained EPS neutral since we implemented tariff-based or tariff-related pricing. Enterprise operating margin, as reported, expanded by 320 basis points year over year. In Q4, strong operating performance drove 140 basis points of margin expansion. Additionally, 130 basis points came from tariff refund items, and about 50 basis points came from the Sensia dissolution. The adjusted effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 20.9%, up from 17.8% last year.

This year-over-year increase primarily reflects BEPS Pillar Two, partially offset by higher discrete tax benefits. For the full year fiscal ’26, our adjusted ETR was 19.6%, in line with our guide. Free cash flow was $602 million in the fourth quarter, up $197 million year over year, and free cash flow conversion in the quarter was 139%. Tariff refunds contributed approximately 21 points to conversion. Slide 10 provides an overview of sales and margin performance across our operating segments. As a reminder, segment results do not reflect the impact from the tariff refunds. Intelligent Devices margin of 21.6%, up 180 basis points year over year, was driven by higher sales volume, favorable currency, positive price/cost, and mix, partially offset by higher compensation. Organic incremental margins were in the mid-40s. Software & Control margin of 34% was up 280 basis points versus prior year, driven by 15% organic sales growth.

This segment saw year-over-year incrementals right around 50% on an organic basis. Lifecycle Services margin was 16.4%, better than our expectations and down 110 basis points year over year, primarily reflecting tough prior-year comps and project mix. Overall, excluding the impact of the tariff refunds, Rockwell delivered incremental organic margins in the high 30s, reflecting strong operating leverage on underlying growth. Let’s move to the next slide, 11, for the adjusted EPS walk from Q4 fiscal ’25 to Q4 fiscal ’26. Core performance contributed $0.40 of year-over-year EPS growth, primarily driven by higher volume, followed by favorable mix and positive price/cost, partially offset by higher compensation. Net tariff refund-related items were an $0.11 tailwind. Currency was a $0.10 benefit. Lower share count from our opportunistic share repurchase program contributed a $0.05 benefit.

Tax was a $0.15 headwind. All other items were a $0.03 tailwind to EPS. Turning to Slide 12, I’ll cover a few highlights from our full year ’26. We entered the year with a strong productivity goal and exceeded it, with productivity contributing meaningfully to our solid margin performance. Our teams continue to execute thousands of actions across the company to simplify how we operate, improve efficiency, and create capacity for growth. In Intelligent Devices, full-year incremental margins were in the high 30s, and the 20% segment operating margin was an expansion of 200 basis points year over year on both a reported and organic basis.

This improvement was driven by volume growth with good leverage and positive price/cost. Software & Control delivered incremental margins in the high 50s, with segment margins expanding by more than 400 basis points year over year to 33.8%. This was all about volume growth for Software & Control, and it flowed through nicely. In Lifecycle Services, sales, earnings, and segment margins were essentially flat year over year after adjusting for the Sensia dissolution.

At the total company level, Enterprise operating margin for the full year was 22.2%, an increase of 330 basis points. Operating performance drove about 270 basis points of margin expansion, and we received a slight full-year benefit from tariff refund items and the Sensia dissolution. Underlying conversion was particularly strong; excluding the impact of tariff refunds, full-year incremental margins were around 50% on an organic basis. Engineering and development investment remained at about 8% of sales, supporting continued innovation and our long-term growth priorities.

Adjusted EPS of $13.42 was up 27% and $1.72 better than the midpoint of our initial guide for the year, including the $0.11 benefit from tariff refunds. Free cash flow conversion was 113% for the year, including a 6-point benefit from tariff refunds. ROIC was strong, reaching 20.4% on a trailing 12-month basis. Finally, we returned about $1.9 billion to shareowners through dividends and share repurchases during the year while still ending fiscal ’26 at less than two times leverage.

Our capital structure and liquidity remain strong. Moving on to the next slide, 13, and our fiscal ’27 outlook, we expect organic sales growth of 6% to 9%, or 7.5% at the midpoint. Reported and organic sales include a 100 basis point benefit from the fiscal year ’26 customer tariff refund program accrual. With strong growth at the midpoint of the guide at 6.5%, the Sensia divestiture represents about a point and a half headwind to reported growth, resulting in expected reported sales growth of about 6% at the midpoint.

Our Enterprise operating margin guidance is 23%, up almost 100 basis points year over year. We expect to achieve about 300 basis points of underlying price in fiscal ’27, and these pricing actions along with productivity will help to offset ongoing inflationary pressures. The Sensia dissolution will also give us a slight margin tailwind for the year. Our adjusted EPS guidance is a range of $14.50 to $15.50, or $15 at the midpoint. At the midpoint of our organic sales growth, we expect incremental margins in the high 30s, excluding tariff refunds.

We are also stepping up investments in our advanced manufacturing and digital infrastructure, including construction of our U.S. greenfield facility. We are targeting CapEx spending of about 4% of sales in fiscal ’27. We don’t expect a significant impact to depreciation in 2027, as the largest investments won’t be put into service until after the fiscal year ends. In terms of the calendarization, as Blake mentioned, we expect a typical sequential decline in Q1, followed by a sequential improvement in subsequent quarters. This is true for both sales and margins as we progress through the year. Now let me share some additional color on our first quarter. In Q1, we expect total company sales to be up mid-single digits organically year over year, or up low single digits on a reported basis, with organic incrementals in the mid-30s, and adjusted EPS of around $3 per share.

From a business segment standpoint, Intelligent Devices organic and reported sales in Q1 are expected to be up mid-single digits year over year, with segment margins up slightly year over year. Software & Control organic sales are expected to grow 10%, with margin in the low 30s and incremental margins in the low 40s. Lifecycle Services organic sales are expected to be up slightly year over year, while reported sales will be down high single digits, with segment margin in the mid-teens above the prior year.

For the full year, Intelligent Devices sales are expected to grow mid-single digits on an organic and reported basis, with segment margin expanding about 100 basis points year over year. Software & Control sales growth is expected to be high single digits on an organic and reported basis, with margins up slightly year over year as we lap some tough comps and absorb inflationary pressures. Lifecycle Services organic sales growth is expected to be up low single digits, with segment margin up about 100 basis points year over year.

As a reminder, the Sensia dissolution is a $100 million headwind to revenue, split evenly between Q1 and Q2. Let’s turn to Slide 14 for our full-year fiscal ’27 adjusted EPS walk. We expect core performance to contribute $1.60 of EPS growth, reflecting the organic growth and margin expansion in our outlook. A lower share count is expected to provide a $0.20 tailwind, while net tariff refund-related items are expected to be an $0.11 headwind. All other items combined are expected to be an $0.11 headwind. We expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be 20% for the year.

A few additional comments on fiscal ’27 guidance for your models: Corporate and other expense is expected to be around $120 million. Net interest expense for fiscal ’27 is also expected to be about $120 million. We expect average diluted shares outstanding of about 110.4 million, including approximately $600 million of planned share repurchases during the year. We like the momentum we brought into the year. This team has shown the ability to adjust to the changing environment and continues to drive performance. We’re planning to do that again in fiscal ’27. With that, I’ll turn it back to Blake for some closing remarks before we start Q&A.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Thanks, Christian. We had a great year, and we see continued growth and expanded profitability in fiscal year ’27. Rockwell Automation has a very strong leadership team in place, with seasoned executives who understand both our traditional sources of value as well as the new ways to win. We are leading a committed team of worldwide employees focused exclusively on industrial automation and digital transformation, complemented by the best partners in the business.

Automation Fair and Investor Day are less than two short weeks away in Boston. There has never been an Automation Fair that will showcase more new, groundbreaking technology than this one. So I hope to see you there. Aijana will now begin the Q&A session.

Aijana Zellner (Head of Investor Relations and Market Strategy)

We would like to get to as many of you as possible, so please limit yourself to one question and a quick follow-up. Joanne, let’s take our first question.

OPERATOR

Just as a reminder, to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Scott Davis (Analyst at Melius Research)

Hey, good morning, Blake and Christian and Aijana. Hey Blake, early in the comments you said you were going to start combining semis and data center into one. It’s 10% of revenues. It’s pretty material. What do you think the growth rate is of that kind of category? Think in terms of like a five-year growth rate. Just trying to get a sense of what kind of tailwind this is for you guys.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Yeah, so you know, we’ve obviously seen good growth leading up to fiscal ’27. For fiscal ’27, as you said, about 10% of the combined verticals and we expect mid-teens growth for the year and I expect that to continue. Scott, I mean it’s, you know, well known that people are trying to make products smarter with embedded semiconductors as a part of the bill of materials in addition to, you know, data center build-up and I just don’t see that trend slowing down.

We grouped the two verticals together because of the large amount of commonality in the applications we’re addressing. It’s really all about the environmental control of these facilities. With data centers, it’s the central utilities plant; in semiconductor, it’s the building management systems. And so we think that goes together. And as you said, it’s an important part of our business that’s growing fast, that’s complemented by, you know, the continued growth in our traditional areas of value.

Scott Davis (Analyst at Melius Research)

Makes sense. And then, you know, you mentioned you also used the word project timing, I think specifically with mining, but perhaps maybe a little broader than that. I don’t know. But to what extent do you think there was an impact on the quarter? Anything you can measure? I actually thought you might come in a little bit higher than 7% on the core. So just trying to get a sense of if there were some timing issues that may have held that back a little bit.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Yeah, I think specifically in mining we see a strengthening project funnel. But the delays in CapEx in mining and, you know, some of the other industries continues. Again, these are not projects that are being canceled. They’re being extended out for, you know, the reasons that we’ve talked about in the past. Mining, I think, has positive growth, as do all of our verticals forecast for fiscal year ’27. We just didn’t see it materialize in Q4. But obviously we’re forecasting growth in fiscal ’27.

I would say similar to home and personal care. If we look at the hybrid area, there’s a lot going on out there and we are forecasting growth for fiscal ’27.

Scott Davis (Analyst at Melius Research)

Okay, understood. Best of luck in ’27, guys. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Thank you.

OPERATOR

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Andrew Obin (Analyst at Bank of America)

Yes, good morning. Can you hear me? Excellent. Fantastic. So maybe first question on Lifecycle Services and obviously the step back. You guys have really turned this business around over the past couple of years. But you’re sort of talking about ARR somewhat being disappointing. I sort of think about ARR in this business linked to, you know, sort of various projects related to opex, you know. Yes, I think macro is quite good. Can you just, you know, maybe step back and tell us what’s happening there and why ARR has disappointed.

Thank you.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Sure, Andrew. I’ll start with some of the macro effects and then I’ll talk about what we’re doing internally with things that we can control. First of all, the ARR in Lifecycle Services is being affected to some extent by the delays in projects that often will go in with the big initial project, but if we’re doing a good job has ARR attached to it. The second is that because a lot of these projects are on digital infrastructure—networks and cybersecurity and so on—with the inflation that’s affected IT equipment in particular, we’re seeing the scale being reduced on some of those rollouts.

So initially a food and beverage customer might be looking to roll out a managed services contract at 30 additional plants and they may cut that in half. And so that’s having some impact. We’re certainly fighting for every project that we have the opportunity to participate in. And we’re working on the business internally through simplifying our processes to make it easier both to deliver these projects as well as to deliver them very profitably. And we do that through the growing trusted content offering, the use of our internal agentic orchestration tools to reduce keystrokes. And that’s not just a productivity measure, that’s also a revenue-getting measure because if we can quote these things more efficiently, then we’ll win more of them.

And then as we’ve talked about, our investments over the next few years include digital infrastructure to make it easier for customers to place orders for hardware, software, and services simultaneously.

Andrew Obin (Analyst at Bank of America)

Gotcha. Thank you very much. And maybe to steal a little bit of thunder from the analyst day next week, but you guys are rolling out—you started to roll out new Logix controllers, I think larger ones this year. You’re going to do more in calendar ’27. Can you just tell us A, what the experience has been with the customers and B, does it impact sort of the financials that we see from the outside? How does the pace of the rollout sort of impact your reported financials?

Thank you.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Well, to be sure, Andrew, the increased pace of new product introductions in Logix do contribute to the great growth and profitability that we saw in fiscal ’26 and that we expect to continue to see in ’27. So the L9, which is the newest processor, is the highest performance that we’ve offered. It’s seen strong adoption in the market. You’ll of course see that at Automation Fair. Software-defined automation with the ability to run logic on an open compute surface will be in full display.

And then the other products and enablers—probably at the head of the list, I would point out FactoryTalk Conductor, which applies agentic orchestration to our software tools across control and operator interface; design, operate, and maintain—are all impacted by the ability to simplify engineers’ effort to create these systems and then to manage them. So it is contributing to the financial results we’re seeing because it’s helping us gain share and it’s doing it very profitably.

Andrew Obin (Analyst at Bank of America)

Thank you so much.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

See you soon.

OPERATOR

Our next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Andy Kaplowitz (Analyst at Citi)

Hey, good morning everyone.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Good morning.

Andy Kaplowitz (Analyst at Citi)

Blake, your discrete markets look like they have to continue to accelerate at least a bit, up 20% overall in the last quarter. Seems like it’s pretty broad-based, including automotive. I know you’ve talked about some ongoing reticence in terms of larger CapEx projects, but also seems like you have above average visibility into continued improvement in discrete in ’27. So maybe just a little more color into the drivers of the growth. Obviously we understand e-commerce and the kind of markets are improving, but just general comments.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Well, we’re winning in automotive. I mean the mid-teens growth that we saw and the positive outlook going forward is testament to the adoption at both our existing and new customers with our traditional sources of value. But also they’re obviously interested in what AI can do to make them more productive in their manufacturing processes and with the things that Rockwell has developed. I mentioned FactoryTalk Conductor, Emulate3D, but as well as the work that we’re doing with partners.

So I should mention that Rockwell and NVIDIA are collaborating to integrate AI and advanced computing into our platforms and services. And this helps manufacturers in automotive and really across manufacturing support the workforce and expand U.S. productivity and capacity. And that’s an important part of the equation as well.

Andy Kaplowitz (Analyst at Citi)

Thanks for that, Blake. And then Christian, could you give us a little more color into the puts and takes of your incremental margin forecast in ’27? I know you said high-30s incrementals despite concerns regarding memory chip inflation out there. So I think you already mentioned 3% pricing that continues to be above average versus history. So maybe talk about how Rockwell has evolved to stay ahead of price versus costs and what kind of inflation you’re facing and then maybe anything on the ongoing productivity-focused efforts you have for ’27.

Christian Rothe (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, sure, absolutely, Andy. So yeah, as we think about the shape of 2027, you know, as we started out with our discussion today, yeah we’ve got a sequential down in the first quarter and then we’re going to go into incremental growth as we go through the year, both on a sales and margin perspective. The inflation side has not abated. That is, we still have inflation. The rate of change has come down. The number of notifications that we’re getting from our suppliers around those changes in the price that they’re selling to us, those have come down, but we still have inflation and are experiencing inflation.

The good news is that for the full year fiscal ’26 and for the fourth quarter, we did have favorable price-costs. And, you know, for the ’26 timeframe, it was slightly dilutive to our margins. As we turn, we look at ’27 though, and we think about the pricing actions—that 300 basis points of price that we have in place today that we’re expecting to achieve—that should help us to stay apace with what’s happening on the inflation side. And the productivity actions, I’m glad you brought that up. We’re going to go into that more at our investor day. But as you know, this has been an area of a lot of activity within Rockwell over the last couple of years.

I talked about thousands of projects, initiatives that are happening inside the organization right now. That list continues to grow and everything from small projects to larger ones. It is not just in the factory. It’s also happening with our indirect spending, it’s happening with our SG&A spend levels. So there’s a lot that’s occurring. I think the part that’s exciting is that it’s not just used for cost reduction. That is, we’re using it to increase the velocity inside of our business. So AI is a really good example of that. AI, yes, there’s some soft savings, there’s some hard savings. Those hard savings help us to offset some of the incremental costs that we have related to deployment of those technologies. But more importantly, it’s driving velocity.

We have a number of things you’re going to see on the floor at Automation Fair in a couple of weeks that were not even necessarily on the project plan to be achieved in fiscal ’26, and the team was able to get those done because of the fact that we were able to get a lot of productivity out of our AI initiatives, especially in the software development side. So really good opportunity for us to continue to drive that velocity, but also in margins.

Andy Kaplowitz (Analyst at Citi)

Appreciate all the color.

OPERATOR

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Julian Mitchell (Analyst at JP Morgan)

Hi, good morning. First of all, just wanted to understand a little bit more the overall organic sales guide. So I think you said, Christian, sort of mid-single-digit first quarter and then you’re up for the year ex tariffs, I think sort of 6 to 7% at the midpoint as the comps get easier through the year. So just want to understand, is there something specific in Q1 weighing, and it looks like there’s a bit of an acceleration through the year afterwards, year on year.

Is that based off project conversion accelerating? Any thoughts around that, please?

Christian Rothe (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, Julian. So yeah, we are talking about mid-single-digit growth organically, and that is of course taking out the impact of the Sensia dissolution that occurred. And so there is some seasonality of course that happens for us from Q4 into Q1 and then we go and grow from that point. Nothing specifically to call out around anything that we see in the pipeline or project-related that would dramatically change the view or, you know, what’s happening around the sequentials as we go through the year.

So I think the way to think about it is that again it’s just some modest changes from quarter to quarter, but broadly it’s—we feel really good about how the year is shaping up for us.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Yeah, there’s a certain amount of prudence at this point of the introduction of the guide, but hopefully you’re hearing the sentiment that customers are positive about their prospects going forward. We’re hearing that from end users across multiple verticals and we’re hearing it from machine builders as well. Their backlog is healthy and this new innovation gives them opportunities to add value to their own offerings.

Julian Mitchell (Analyst at JP Morgan)

That’s helpful. And then just to put a finer point maybe on what you’re seeing the Logix platform, I think there was a mention of 25% growth recently on the prepared remarks. It looks like you’re guiding, I suppose, software and control up, you know, high single digits and Logix’s probably similar to that given the ARR guide for the overall company. So maybe help us understand kind of where are we in that PLC or Logix cycle as you see it, how’s the kind of inventories and sell-in, sell-out looking on that product, please?

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Sure. Well, you got the numbers right. 25% Logix growth in the fourth quarter. We’re expecting Software & Control to be high single digits in fiscal year ’27 with Logix in that ballpark. And this is underlying market demand as well as share growth with our traditional offerings as well as the software that with Logix forms a control system. We think we’ve got the best in the business and obviously you’ll see a lot of that in the next couple of weeks.

But in terms of positioning this, as we’ve talked about in the past, the number of units have gone above pre‑pandemic levels with respect to controllers, but there’s still plenty of room to run in this respect. We don’t see this impacted by any sort of restock or advanced buying. It’s underlying demand and it’s broad based across the traditional industries like automotive and food and beverage and life sciences and energy, but also with the demand that we’ve talked about in semiconductor and e‑commerce, warehouse, and data center.

Julian Mitchell (Analyst at JP Morgan)

Great, thank you.

Aijana Zellner (Head of Investor Relations and Market Strategy)

Thanks, Julian.

OPERATOR

Our next question comes from Nigel Koh from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Nigel Koh (Analyst at Wolfe Research)

Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the details on the ’27 guide. I thought it was interesting that, you know, we’re seeing, you know, improving mining, chemical end markets in ’27. Just I’m guessing that’s one of the reasons why you’re seeing organic sales growth improving through the year. But maybe just talk about, you know, what you’ve seen in those end markets and what gives you confidence that, you know, life gets better there.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Sure. So mining, we’ve talked before, we’ve got a really good readiness to serve in mining, particularly as the miners are moving to more autonomous operations. That’s a great fit. And as I and members of the leadership team have had discussions, you know, with boards and C‑suite at the big miners, there really is a good fit with what we’re doing and what they’re trying to accomplish in terms of flexibility and throughput and safety. And we’re seeing that manifest itself in the funnel.

So a lot of the jobs that we’re tracking and some of the wins that we have seen, you know, have a distinctly digital aspect to them. It’s not just the traditional power control that’s been a big part of that vertical penetration in the past. It’s also adding the things that Rockwell Automation’s uniquely positioned to do. And so that does inform some of the optimism that we’re seeing. But it’s backed up by tangible growth and funnel in chemical. That industry in general is of course under a lot of pressure, you know, from geopolitical volatility, pricing around the world and so on.

We really focus on finished chemicals, fine chemicals versus bulk. And so it’s a segment of the market and we do think that we’re gaining share in that area as well. Again, we’ve talked for years about PlantPAx and as we add AI capabilities to Logix and the software around it that impacts PlantPAx as well.

Nigel Koh (Analyst at Wolfe Research)

Okay, thanks, Blake. And then just going back to the 1Q guide, Christian, I think incrementals a bit below the high 30s for 1Q, maybe just correct me if I’m wrong there. And I’m assuming that we’ve got the worst comp on memory of the year there. So perhaps that’s the reason. My real question, is memory just an inflation issue or are there lengthening lead times/availability issues to think about as well?

Christian Rothe (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, sure. So you’re right. When I went through my prepared comments, the incrementals, the organic incrementals for Rockwell in Q1 versus the prior year were at the mid‑30s level. So you have that correct. And absolutely, you know, from an inflationary perspective, Q1 is going to be a more difficult quarter. And you brought up an important aspect around that, which is there’s a difference, there’s a difference between what’s happening on the inflationary side versus availability.

And so on the inflationary side, memory is a really big driver for us, but it’s really, you know, a broader drive on kind of a lot of the electrical components. And we talked a lot about what’s happening in the demand environment around things that are impacted by data center. And so that’s why it’s a little bit broader of a base there. But memory is, from an inflation side, a bigger portion of it. From the component availability side, we’re sitting actually pretty okay on the memory portion of it.

But there’s other electrical components, things like PCBs, that are a little bit more difficult for us. Now, that being said, our team, the supply chain organization, has done a really good job of making sure that we’ve gotten ahead of this, that we’re getting those components in. That doesn’t mean that, you know, it’s a one and done because we, of course, are using these and these are a lot of the areas that we’re getting some really good demand for our products.

And so, and so as we’re depleting that inventory, we gotta make sure that we’re putting it back into the funnel. So, you know, that again, the team has done a good job. We’re, you know, we’re focused on trying to make sure that we’re still in a position to keep on shipping. And they’ve kept us in that place.

Nigel Koh (Analyst at Wolfe Research)

That’s great. Thank you.

OPERATOR

Our next question comes from Quinn Frederickson from Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Quinn Frederickson (Analyst at Baird)

Good morning, Blake. Wondering if you could frame up how you’re thinking about greenfield versus brownfield activity and broader CapEx release. Does the ’27 outlook still contemplate some constraint around broader CapEx spend persists or do you see more of a broader release this year?

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Yeah, we’re not counting on a, you know, broadening of CapEx release in the guide. I think if we see more of that, that would push us more to the high end of the range of our revenue in the year. That being said, the new capacity reached, you know, a new high level mark in fiscal year ’26, and we expect it to go still higher in ’27. You know, I’ve asked me in the past, what inning, you know, do we think that we’re in with respect to new capacity in the US.

And I’d probably characterize it as around the fourth inning, as, you know. So there’s plenty ahead of us there. It’s not necessarily greenfields. A lot of this is modernizations, new lines, retrofits in existing building envelopes. But there’s still plenty of room to run and we’re winning, winning at a high rate in those activities across multiple industries.

Quinn Frederickson (Analyst at Baird)

That’s helpful. And then you talked in an earlier question about ARR and some of the headwinds there. But it does look like you’re expecting ARR growth to improve a bit to 7% from 5% this year. Could you just unpack which piece of the business specifically drive that acceleration? Is that principally just a better outlook in Life Cycle Services or are there any pieces of your software ARR growth that also strengthen?

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Yeah, I think we’ll see improvement in both the software and the services element of ARR for starters. The whole organization recognizes the importance of it and, you know, we’ve done some things internally to underscore that as well as continuing to work on near‑term business system enhancements that help reduce the friction in things like renewals and being able to make it easier for customers to do things across the portfolio of Rockwell offerings, whether it’s things that we’ve had for a long time or things that we’ve acquired in recent years.

So I think the business environment for demand for those offerings remains high. Digital services, cloud‑native software like Plex and Fiix. You know, we continue to be very happy with the content and the value that comes from that. Now we just have to continue to work on simplifying the motion and making sure that we’re getting what’s due us in those areas. And that’s why we’re optimistic about increasing the ARR in the coming year.

OPERATOR

Our next question comes from Steve Tousa from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Steve Tousa (Analyst at Wells Fargo)

Hi, good morning, guys.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Hey Steve,

Steve Tousa (Analyst at Wells Fargo)

Can you just. A lot of the questions have been asked, but I think it’s really about kind of the top line trends, two end markets for you that don’t necessarily define your company anymore, but are key: auto and food and Bev. Looking at the CapEx budgets, it’s hard to see growth there. Can you maybe just talk about what’s going on in those end markets for, you know, not necessarily the next six months but for the next, you know, 12 months and beyond that?

You know, those have kind of been subdued but potentially could accelerate. Just curious what you’re seeing there.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

Sure, sure. Well, automotive, you know we have seen good growth in the most recent quarters, 15% in Q4, and we’re expecting it to continue to be a good source of growth. We’re seeing modernizations, we’re seeing companies continue to balance their offering by going, you know, away from this headlong rush to all‑EV to building what customers want to buy, which includes internal combustion engine‑propelled vehicles as well as hybrid vehicles. And those model changes are what drive more than anything else our business there to be sure.

You know, there’s still headwinds in that industry. Chief among them, you know, uncertainty around tariffs. USMCA tariffs, Section 232s are maybe even a bigger issue for them right now. But we have a great offering. As I talked about before, it’s not just about, you know, the traditional PLCs and intelligent devices, selling more software into these customers, into the tier suppliers as well as the brand OEMs, and mobile robots. You know, we had double‑digit growth in autonomous mobile robots, and the single biggest served vertical for mobile robots is automotive.

So the outlook looks good there both in terms of our offering as well as customers’ needs to continue to evolve their offering, and that’s about 10% of our business. Food and beverage, about 20% of the business. CapEx has been subdued. Those companies are dealing with, at the top of the list, driving cost out. They’ve been hit with continuing raw material cost, packaging and so on. But that’s not a bad thing for us because it’s efficiency that we’re helping them with and broadening the types of applications that we’re dealing with. In the past we’ve talked a lot about confectionery. We’re doing a lot with, you know, with protein and with obviously GLP‑1 — you know, that’s more life sciences.

But that’s a great area of growth for us going forward. It’s a change, you know, eating habits to some extent but people are going to still want to eat and drink and they’re going to want more choices in what they buy as more people enter the middle class. We’ve been talking about that for years and so we like where we’re positioned there. It’s just we’re not seeing or counting on, you know, a sharp increase in CapEx in either of those verticals, you know, when we put the guide together.

Christian, anything else there?

Christian Rothe (Chief Financial Officer)

No, I think that’s, I think you summarized it really well.

Steve Tousa (Analyst at Wells Fargo)

Great, great color. Thanks guys. Appreciate it.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

See you soon, Steve,

Aijana Zellner (Head of Investor Relations and Market Strategy)

We’ll take one more question.

OPERATOR

Certainly. Our last question today comes from Joe O’Dea from Vertical Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Joe O’Dea (Analyst at Vertical Research Partners)

Hi, good morning. Thanks for letting me in. Just wanted to get a little bit more color on the Intelligent Devices margin in the quarter. It was a particularly strong sequential incremental, and so anything with respect to pricing that occurred in the quarter, mix, productivity efforts, and then, bigger picture, anything that’s sort of underway in terms of some of the traction you’re gaining on the margin expansion there?

Christian Rothe (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, sure. So I’ll start, and then I think Blake will probably jump in with some comments. But the Intelligent Devices, yeah, they did have a good quarter. They’re, you know, it’s still below the long-term corridor that we had put in place of 22 to 24%. But having a 20% for the full year and coming in at 21.6 for the fourth quarter was a really good performance, as you mentioned. Yeah, we had some good benefit from pricing that occurred in the quarter.

The team’s done a great job again on productivity. The Intelligent Devices business is one of those areas that is going to be the largest. It is our largest segment, so it’s going to be the largest beneficiary of a lot of our productivity actions. A lot of that aligned really nicely. It didn’t hurt that the auto AMR business turned to price profitability in the fourth quarter as well. So that also took away a detriment to their segment margins that has been in place for the last couple of years. And again, good progress and good development within that business. Yeah.

Blake Moret (President and CEO)

And, you know, we expect to continue to work on the margins in that business, specifically with our auto AMRs. But across the portfolio, new product introductions help as well. Being able to provide more value at lower cost is another piece of the equation. And like Software and Control, they picked up the pace there. And then I would just mention CUBIC, the modular power control offering that we have, continues to grow very well and very profitably.

Joe O’Dea (Analyst at Vertical Research Partners)

Thank you. I’ll leave it there.

OPERATOR

Great. That concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for joining us today at this time. You may disconnect. Thank you.

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