Tesla Bulls Could Get Burned? Gary Black Sees Trouble With SpaceX All-Stock Merger: Warns 24% Premium 'Can Quickly Go Negative'

Investor Gary Black, the co-founder of The Future Fund LLC, reiterated his criticism of and dilution concerns about a possible merger between Elon Musk-led enterprises Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA).

Gary Black Flags Lumentum Deal

In a post on the social media platform X, Black dismissed mergers. “$TSLA bulls still hanging onto the hope that $SPCX will buy $TSLA in an all-stock deal,” he said, pointing to the deal between Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) and Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE).

“A +24% premium can quickly go negative as the acquirer’s stock is sold down,” Black said in the post. “Since last Wednesday before the deal was announced $LITE (the target) now down -27% as $MRVL (the acquirer) now down -31%.”

$TSLA bulls still hanging onto the hope that $SPCX will buy $TSLA in an all-stock deal. As we’ve learned (again) from $MRVL – $LITE deal, a +24% premium can quickly go negative as the acquirer’s stock is sold down. Since last Wednesday before the deal was announced $LITE (the… https://t.co/FmFiAE579g pic.twitter.com/BePRtACtoU

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) November 4, 2026

Tesla, SpaceX Merger Talk

Black has been a vocal critic of a merger between the two companies, talks of which have gathered steam following SpaceX’s Q3 earnings call, as well as Tesla’s Roadster debut, which used SpaceX-sourced thrusters to make the car hover.

He said that SpaceX could offer $420/share to Tesla for a merger, but warned of dilution for TSLA shareholders.

On the other hand, Scott Galloway warned that while a merger could be beneficial for Tesla’s financials, such a proposed merger would be detrimental for SpaceX’s shareholders. He said that Tesla was a “patient” and likened SpaceX to an “organ donor.”

Price Action: SPCX shares were down 1.52% to $133.86 during overnight trading on Wednesday, while TSLA declined 2.06% to $377.20. MRVL shares also slipped 3.19% to $154.71 during the overnight session, while Lumentum stock fell 2.80% to $609.19.

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