Howard Marks Questions Anthropic's $1.5 Trillion-Plus Valuation: 'Can We Really Fool Ourselves Into Thinking We Know...'

Oaktree Capital Management co-founder Howard Marks questioned whether investors can accurately value artificial intelligence companies like Anthropic, arguing that the technology’s unpredictable evolution makes traditional earnings forecasts unreliable despite its enormous investment potential, even as the Claude maker’s valuation is expected to be between $1.5 trillion and $1.6 trillion.

Anthropic’s Explosive Growth Tests Traditional Valuations

Speaking on Bloomberg’s ‘The China Show’ on Monday, Marks explained that value investors typically estimate a company’s earnings five years ahead to determine whether its current valuation makes sense.

"I don’t think we can do that with much of AI," he said. Referring to Anthropic, he asked, "Can we really fool ourselves into thinking we know what it will do five years from now?" before adding, "And yet, that doesn’t mean we don’t want to be in it."

In the last few months there have been some stumbles in AI land. It somewhat burst the bubble of infallibility. That's very healthy.

You can watch the full interview here: https://t.co/iXg6AHg7Ak pic.twitter.com/vMM6G5Y819

— Howard Marks (@hmarksofficial) November 2, 2026

Marks said his six decades of investing experience offered little precedent for AI’s "inscrutability, its novelty, its speed of progress, its autonomy, and its unpredictability."

His comments come as Anthropic prepares for a blockbuster IPO after reporting $16.96 billion in third-quarter revenue, up sharply from a year earlier, while posting a $567 million operating loss. The company has also disclosed roughly $895 billion in computing and infrastructure commitments, much of it extending through 2045.

Anthropic’s founders also acknowledged the difficulty of predicting their business, promising in their prospectus to continually reinvent the company through products potentially more valuable than existing offerings. Meanwhile, investors remain divided over its potential $2 trillion valuation.

Marks Says AI’s Aura Of Invincibility Fades

Marks said recent technology-stock declines had "somewhat burst the bubble of infallibility" surrounding AI investments.

"You don’t want to invest in something when everybody and his brother think it can’t lose," he told Bloomberg, welcoming investors becoming more "thoughtful" and "skeptical."

The selloff continued Monday, November 2, as the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) dropped 3.79%, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) fell 2.71%. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) declined 1.36%, reflecting broader technology-sector weakness. Meanwhile, Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) plunged nearly 9% and Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) lost roughly 13% as investors questioned mounting AI infrastructure spending.

Investors Divided Over AI’s Long-Term Potential

The caution contrasts with Dan Ives’ prediction that Anthropic could eventually command a $3 trillion valuation, while Michael Burry has questioned the company’s enormous infrastructure commitments.

Marks nevertheless urged investors to prioritize long-term opportunities over daily market swings. "There is no reward in the investment business for hyperactivity," he said, advocating diversified portfolios built around investments that can deliver lasting returns.

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