S&P 500 Is Up '19 For 19 Times' In Midterm November-April Window, According To Ryan Detrick

The S&P 500 index has risen during every November-April period following a midterm election since 1950, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Investment Research. Market data indicates a 100% win rate for this specific six-month window over the last 19 midterm cycles.

Historical Midterm Window Performance

Market data demonstrates that the current period typically generates strong returns for the S&P 500 index. Detrick stated on X, “These next six months are historically the best of the year, but they are even better in a midterm year.”

Detrick emphasized this specific timeframe by noting, “In fact, 19 for 19 times we’ve seen November – April higher when starting in a midterm year.” Data spanning from 1950 to the present displays an average return of 14.8% and a median return of 15.2% for the S&P 500 during this six-month midterm stretch.

These next six months are historically the best of the year, but they are even better in a midterm year.

In fact, 19 for 19 times we've seen November – April higher when starting in a midterm year.

Will this time be different? pic.twitter.com/kebp03JxpR

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 1, 2026

Across all years, the November to April period yields an average 6.9% change, leading Detrick to observe, “We are leaving the historically worst six months and the next six months are the historically best for the S&P 500.”

We are leaving the historically worst six months and the next six months are the historically best for the S&P 500. pic.twitter.com/jzUmVVmUYB

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 1, 2026

November Standout Metrics

Looking strictly at November, Detrick presented statistics showing it frequently outperforms other months during midterm years. Detrick stated, “No month in a midterm year is more likely to be higher than November at 78.9% of the time.”

No month in a midterm year is more likely to be higher than November at 78.9% of the time. pic.twitter.com/G7GmjEkRrr

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 1, 2026

He further elaborated that “November is the best month of the year on average since 1950, second best the past 20 years, the best past 10 years, and the second best in midterm years.”

November is the best month of the year on average since 1950, second best the past 20 years, the best past 10 years, and the second best in midterm years. pic.twitter.com/9HoF8xXAEt

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 1, 2026

Rebounds Following October Declines

Detrick also highlighted historical patterns involving preceding months. Addressing prior market drops, Detrick stated, “October and November have never both been lower in a midterm year.” He explained the historical precedent, noting, “The five times October was lower, November bounced back in the green each time.”

Detrick’s data showed that in midterm years 1954, 1970, 1978, 1990, and 2018, negative Octobers were immediately followed by positive Novembers. Regarding the end of those specific years, he added, “December was lower only once, but it was the huge 9.2% drop the last time President Trump was in office.’

October and November have never both been lower in a midterm year.

The five times October was lower, November bounced back in the green each time.

December was lower only once, but it was the huge 9.2% drop the last time President Trump was in office. pic.twitter.com/f4n7aUKdAh

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) November 1, 2026

How Has the Stock Market Performed?

The S&P 500 index has advanced 10.52% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 9.47%, and the Dow Jones gained 7.00% YTD.

On Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. SPY fell 1.77% to $755.72, while QQQ declined 3.47% to $690.49. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 1.07% lower at $517.13.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.