Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures point to a solid rebound early Monday as Wall Street shakes off a bruising October close. Investors are weighing cooling energy prices after President Donald Trump suggested an impending end to the Iran conflict, alongside a highly anticipated earnings report from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL).

The Polymarket traders, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, are decisively bullish for the Nov. 2 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2?” contract currently reflects a 76% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are leaning into green index futures while monitoring a de-escalation in energy markets and preparing for mega-cap tech earnings:

• Positive Index Futures: Equity futures are tracking higher across the board. Nasdaq 100 futures lead the advance, climbing 0.92%. Russell 2000 futures added 0.62%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.47%, and Dow Jones futures rose 0.36%.

• Geopolitics & Retreating Oil: Over the weekend, President Trump told supporters that the U.S. will “put it away very soon” regarding the conflict with Iran, stating, “Either they’ll make a deal, or we’ll just end it.” Although Iran reported that two oil tankers struck naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump’s rhetoric eased broader escalation fears ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections. Consequently, energy prices dropped; Brent crude fell 2.99% to $110.04 a barrel, while WTI crude dropped 3.14% to $100.85 a barrel.

• Earnings Docket: Monday’s corporate calendar is headlined by Apple and Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR), both reporting after the closing bell. Investors will closely parse Apple’s results for insights into its AI strategy under new CEO John Ternus, especially following the tech selloff late last week.

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

According to Ed Yardeni and Toby Hearst of Yardeni QuickTakes, investors sought safety in government bonds last week as the AI selloff rattled global stock markets, causing yields to ease.

Yardeni notes that October’s biggest losers were this year’s AI winners, with South Korea tumbling 16.4% and Taiwan dropping 10.4%. However, despite the U.S. market slipping 0.9% in October, it continues to significantly outperform the rest of the world. Yardeni highlights that the U.S. MSCI’s share of the All Country World MSCI’s market cap has rebounded to 65.3%, noting that U.S. stocks are currently pricing in far more than their share of global forward earnings.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Oct. 30 Polymarket contract resolved “Down.” The contract recorded $9,246 in total trading volume.

On Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. SPY fell 1.77% to $755.72, while QQQ declined 3.47% to $690.49. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 1.07% lower at $517.13.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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