Ed Yardeni Says 10-Year Bond Yields At 5% Show 'Confidence' in the Economy, Peter Schiff Says It's More Like a 'Launching Pad' to 6%

Wall Street is split on what to make of the 10-year Treasury yield briefly topping 5% on Monday for the first time since 2023, with veteran investor Ed Yardeni calling it confidence in the economy and others warning it’s just the start of a bigger climb, as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision looms Wednesday.

Is 5% a Warning Sign or a Vote of Confidence?

Yardeni told CNBC he’s “not terribly alarmed” by yields near 5%, calling it “a vote of confidence in the economy” that shows growth can withstand, and even justify, that level of borrowing costs.

He added that he’d only grow concerned if yields quickly jumped toward 6%, and predicted that if they did, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would likely “pull out a bazooka” by shifting new issuance toward more bills and fewer bonds to take pressure off the market, the same tactic former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen used back in 2023.

Ed Yardeni tells CNBC that 4-5% yields on the 10-year Treasury represent a vote of confidence in the economy's strength. pic.twitter.com/42nlNeTYiW

— Yardeni Research (@yardeni) September 14, 2026

Economist Mohamed El-Erian noted that the pressure isn’t unique to U.S. debt, pointing to an even sharper move in higher-beta G7 bonds like UK gilts.

With US 10-year government bond yields crossing the 5% threshold, today's move up is even more dramatic in higher-beta G7 sovereign bonds like UK gilts.
(CNBC and Bloomberg data below.)#economy #markets #bonds #uk pic.twitter.com/xfdh79q3W4

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) September 14, 2026

Yields Have Further to Climb

Investor Peter Schiff said, “Don’t be fooled into thinking this is the top,” calling 5% “more likely just a launching pad to 6% and beyond.”

The 10-year Treasury yield is now 5%. Don't be fooled into thinking this is the top. It's more likely just a launching pad to 6% and beyond. Since inflation will rise even faster, today's selloff in gold is another gift. Buy now!https://t.co/5rf3AY4BWl

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) September 14, 2026

George Noble, a former Peter Lynch protégé, argued that Bessent’s attempt to calm the bond market by doubling Treasury buybacks in August has already failed.

“The bond market always wins,” Noble added.

THIS AGED LIKE FINE WINE

Scott Bessent's big bond rescue lasted about three weeks.

Back on August 19 he doubled the government's buybacks of its own long bonds, and the financial press fell all over itself calling it "decisive leadership."

Everyone told you to buy bonds here.… https://t.co/g7s6lcc6SH

— George Noble (@gnoble79) September 14, 2026

What It Means for Wednesday’s Decision

Rate traders now put roughly a 93.5% probability on a hike at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. A 25-basis-point hike would be the Fed’s first increase since 2023.

Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm said a hike would be “costly medicine,” a modest step meant to push energy-driven costs into profit margins rather than consumer prices, not an attempt to force disinflation by crushing demand.

In a Substack post published Monday, Sahm cited a survey showing that 29 of 30 former Fed officials favor raising rates and argued the Fed shouldn’t wait until after the midterms, since delaying for political reasons would damage its credibility more than a hike itself.

Economist Justin Wolfers said the yields crossing 5% means “interest rates are high.”

Pretty sure that I'm going to get a bunch of journalists asking what it means for the American economy that the 10-year treasury just hit 5%.

Lemme answer here: It means that interest rates are high. A bit higher than 4.9%, but a bit lower than 5.1%. That's it. pic.twitter.com/2jvDT09Tcy

— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) September 14, 2026

Price Action: The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:IEF) closed 0.09% lower on Monday at $90.93 and reversed course to climb 0.09% in extended trading. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) climbed 0.07% to close the session at $80.93.

The iShares 7-10 year Treasury Bond ETF has a Momentum score in the 22nd percentile and a negative price trend across the short, medium, and long term.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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