Advertisement

Alpha Buying: Following Insider Conviction in a Beaten Sector

Tim Melvin 9 months ago

Opinion

Last year was not kind to REITs, and that's putting it politely.

Real estate was one of the worst-performing corners of the market, not because the buildings disappeared or the tenants all stopped paying rent, but because the market decided to punish anything that looks even remotely "bond-like" the moment interest rates get sticky.

When investors can earn a fat yield in cash or short-term Treasuries, they suddenly become far less patient with a REIT dividend that comes with price volatility. Add in the endless chatter about commercial real estate, refinancing risk, and the usual recession boogeyman, and you had the perfect setup for a sector-wide valuation compression.

That's exactly why I'm paying attention now.

Real estate is one of those industries where the best money is usually made when people are still arguing about why you shouldn't own it. REITs don't need a booming economy to recover. They need stability. They need a rate environment that stops changing the valuation math every week. They need functioning credit markets, predictable refinancing windows, and time for cash flows to prove they are a lot more durable than the headlines suggest. If those pieces fall into place, 2026 can be the year the sector surprises people, because expectations are already low and positioning is still cautious.

And that brings me to one of my favorite ways to hunt for opportunities in beaten-down industries: insider buying.

When an industry is underperforming, the crowd tends to give up on it all at once. That's when prices get driven by fear, not fundamentals. Insiders don't buy stock because they want a "trade." They buy because they think the market is mispricing the long-term earning power of the business, and they know more about the day-to-day reality than anyone who is reading headlines and staring at a price chart. They can't buy on material non-public information, but they absolutely understand leasing trends, tenant behavior, renewal spreads, financing conditions, and the real state of the balance sheet.

In other words, insiders are often early. Sometimes painfully early. But when insider buying starts to show up in a sector the market hates, that's a signal you ignore at your own risk.

Right now, it's showing up in REITs. And that matters because real estate is one of the few businesses where management teams can compare public market pricing with private market reality in a way most CEOs can't. They see the bids. They see the financing terms. They see which assets are liquid, which are not, and what the real cap rates look like when a deal actually trades. When insiders buy their own REIT shares after a rough stretch, it's often because the stock is pricing the real estate like it's worth far less than what the private market would pay. That disconnect doesn't last forever.

Let's talk about 4 REITs where insider buying has been notable and why each one belongs on your radar.

Agree Realty (ADC) is one of the cleaner business models in the REIT world. It is a net-lease landlord, which means it owns single-tenant properties leased for long terms to strong operating companies. The "net" part matters. In many of these leases, the tenant is responsible for property taxes, insurance, and maintenance. That shifts a lot of the inflation and operating-cost risk away from the landlord and creates steadier, more predictable cash flows. This is the kind of REIT you buy when you want to get paid to wait and you don't want to wake up every morning wondering if management will need to cut the dividend or issue equity at a terrible price.

Insider buying here sends a very specific message. It suggests confidence that the model remains durable even in a higher-rate world and that the market is over-discounting the long-term value of contracted rents and a conservative balance sheet. ADC is not a "story stock." It's a cash-flow compounding machine, and those tend to look a lot better once the rate panic fades.

Clipper Realty (NYSE:CLPR) is a completely different animal, and that's why it's interesting. This is a small-cap, New York City-focused REIT with a portfolio concentrated in residential real estate. That means the stock lives and dies by the local fundamentals: rent levels, occupancy, operating costs, and the political and regulatory realities of the NYC market. It is not a diversified national platform with endless capital sources. It's a focused operator in a difficult market. And those are exactly the kinds of companies that can become deeply mispriced when sentiment turns negative.

When insiders step in to buy a name like CLPR, you should pay attention. Insider buying in a small, underfollowed, underperforming REIT is often a clue that the market has swung too far toward pessimism. It doesn't mean the stock can't go lower. It does mean the people closest to the real assets and real cash flows believe the current price is offering a favorable long-term setup.

LTC Properties (NYSE:LTC) is a healthcare REIT that focuses on senior housing and skilled nursing assets. If you want a sector where fundamentals can look ugly right before they get better, this is it. The senior housing and skilled nursing world has been through a lot: labor cost pressure, operator stress, occupancy resets, and plenty of investor skepticism. But the long-term demand driver isn't going away. The aging population is real. The need for care is real. The question is always about the underwriting, the operators, and the structure of the leases and loans.

Insider buying at LTC is important because it can be a sign that the internal view of asset-level performance is improving and the market is still pricing the sector like it's permanently impaired. Healthcare REIT insiders tend to be disciplined. When they are buying, it often means they see stabilization in coverage, better visibility on cash flow, and a path toward more normal fundamentals.

Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG) is the blue-chip giant of retail real estate, and it's a great example of how lazy narratives create opportunity. People still talk about "the death of the mall" like it's 2009. Meanwhile, the best malls and outlets in America have become something closer to modern mixed-use destinations. They concentrate the strongest brands, attract real traffic, generate strong tenant sales, and give landlords pricing power. SPG also has a redevelopment machine that allows it to recycle underperforming square footage into higher-value uses.

SPG gets treated like a macro punching bag whenever rates jump or recession fear hits the tape. That's when insider buying matters most. Buying by insiders at a company like SPG tends to be a signal that the market is confusing "retail in general" with "premium retail real estate," and it's discounting cash flows that are far more resilient than the headlines imply.

So here's the takeaway for Alpha Buying readers.

REITs were crushed last year because rates and fear drove the valuation conversation, not because the cash flows vanished. If we get a more stable rate environment and a more normal credit backdrop, the sector doesn't need heroics to bounce. It just needs less uncertainty and a little time. When insiders buy in that environment, it's often the market's way of getting a quiet message: the price is wrong.

That doesn't mean you buy every REIT with an insider purchase and go to sleep. It means you build a watchlist in underperforming industries, track the people who actually know the businesses, and look for clusters of buying that suggest conviction, not token gestures.

In a hated sector, insider buying is one of the best "tell me what matters" signals you can get. And right now, REITs are giving us exactly that.

Read the original

Advertisement