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2 Stocks That Show It Pays To Be A 'Pirate'

Tim Melvin 1 year ago

OpinionTrading Ideas

“Pirate” is one of the nicer terms I’ve heard applied to private equity firms. After all, these are companies that, over the years, I have heard get blamed for everything from global warming to the killing of Geoffrey, the Toys R Us giraffe.

The truth of the matter is that when you peel away the label and look inside, most successful private equity firms are simply value investors who use substantial leverage. They buy good businesses using lots of debt, then use cash flow to pay down the debt and create enormous value in the process. As an aside, their biggest customers are the large pension funds that provide comfortable retirements for thousands of teachers, firefighters, and police officers across the United States.

The people who run these companies are generally given equity; often, the employees receive stock. When the deals are successful, as most of them are, executives and employees alike score massive paydays.

The good news for us is that we can do what private equity funds do and earn the type of returns the very best funds have generated over the years. We want good businesses that have substantial debt. We want to see that insiders own enough stock to be motivated to do the things required to succeed at creating value. We want to see that the debt is being actively repaid and reduced.

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American Axle & Manufacturing

American Axle & Manufacturing (NYSE:AXL) has been quietly executing one of the more disciplined balance sheet repair jobs in the auto parts sector, positioning itself for a transformative step forward. The company’s June 2025 investor deck confirms that this is not a speculative EV play or a restructuring story that depends on the market’s mood. It is a solid operator generating real free cash flow, with a clear focus on reducing debt and growing profitably—even in a cyclical and capital-intensive business.

AXL is a leading global supplier of driveline systems and metal-formed components, primarily serving the North American light truck and SUV market. Roughly 69% of its 2024 revenue came from driveline systems, including full-size pickup truck axles and hybrid/electric solutions, while the remainder came from its vertically integrated metal forming operations. Its biggest customers include GM, Ford and Stellantis, and it boasts over $20 billion in lifetime revenue already secured through 2030, providing high visibility in a notoriously uncertain industry.

Once viewed as legacy exposures, the company’s Internal Combustion Engine and hybrid programs have become tailwinds thanks to updated production forecasts in North America and Europe. While EV ambitions remain in place, with selective exposure to high-value components like eBeam axles and electric drive units, AXL has smartly avoided chasing low-margin, high-volume EV content.

That restraint extends to its balance sheet. Since 2017, AXL has reduced gross debt from nearly $4 billion to $2.6 billion. Net leverage stands at 2.8x EBITDA, and management has made it crystal clear that all capital allocation decisions—dividends, buybacks, or otherwise—are on hold until they reach 2.5x. That kind of focus is rare in this market.

The most important near-term development is AXL’s pending merger with Dowlais Group, a U.K.-based driveline and powdered metal components supplier with a strong Asia-Pacific presence and a top-tier position in sideshaft technology. The deal, expected to close in Q4 2025, will double AXL’s scale to approximately $12 billion in revenue, improve geographic diversification, and significantly expand the product portfolio across both ICE and EV platforms.

Financially, the merger is expected to deliver $300 million in annual synergies within three years. Even after layering on approximately $2.2 billion of new debt to finance the transaction, AXL expects to maintain net leverage near 2.5x—evidence of how much operating cash flow the combined business will generate. The pro forma free cash flow yield is projected to be near 50% of the market cap, which is remarkable for a Tier 1 auto supplier in any environment.

Insiders have an enormous incentive to generate cash, pay down debt, and increase the value of the stock. Collectively, they own over four million shares.

In short, AXL is demonstrating what it looks like to run a heavy industrial business the right way: real cash flow, clear priorities, and a strategic combination that could unlock significant value without compromising the company’s balance sheet discipline. That’s worth more than just a passing glance.

Red Rock Resorts

Red Rock Resorts (NASDAQ:RRR) is not just another gaming company. It is a real estate-rich cash machine quietly capitalizing on Southern Nevada’s demographic tailwinds and its own disciplined operating model. Anchored by decades of family-led stewardship from the Fertitta brothers, RRR continues to generate strong free cash flow while methodically unlocking the value of its irreplaceable real estate portfolio. As investors hunt for durable growth and margin stability in a choppy market, Red Rock stands out.

The company’s story starts with its commanding position in the Las Vegas local gaming market, which is the second-largest gaming market in the United States. This is a recurring revenue engine powered by loyal customers: 75% of slot revenues come from guests who visit at least four times a month. With 19 properties already operating and a pipeline of shovel-ready land, RRR is perfectly situated to scale with the Las Vegas metro’s continued growth.

The heart of Red Rock’s advantage is its real estate. The company owns every inch of its developed and undeveloped land, with over 459 acres of prime Las Vegas Valley property ready for development.

These sites are not speculative.

They are located in some of the fastest-growing, highest-income neighborhoods in Southern Nevada, including Inspirada, Skye Canyon, and along South Las Vegas Boulevard. The Durango project is a case in point: a new property expected to generate over $180 million in EBITDA on an $800 million investment, delivering a projected 20%+ ROI.

It is not just about development.

The company’s reinvestment in its existing assets is deliberate and effective. Renovations at Green Valley Ranch and Sunset Station aim to enhance the guest experience and drive repeat visitation. With more than $6 billion already invested across its Las Vegas footprint, the quality of RRR’s properties sets a high bar in the regional gaming space.

Red Rock’s free cash flow generation is perhaps most compelling for long-term investors. Since reopening after COVID, RRR has converted a robust 61% of EBITDA into operating free cash flow, generating over $415 million in the trailing twelve months ending March 2025. In Q1 2025 alone, the company posted record EBITDA of $215 million with consolidated margins above 43%. Because gaming, its highest-margin segment, accounts for 67% of total revenue, those margins remain resilient even amid broader macro volatility.

While Red Rock still has a substantial debt load of $3.4 billion, it is worth noting that leverage metrics are trending in the right direction. Debt-to-equity has improved meaningfully from 15.87 in late 2024 to 13.77 in Q1 2025, and net leverage has declined to 4.09x EBITDA. Management is taking a measured approach—balancing development, capital returns, and deleveraging—without compromising its ability to invest for future growth.

Red Rock is returning capital: the company has paid out $893 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases since 2021. That includes $646 million in buybacks, with another $309 million still authorized under the current plan. It is a shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy underpinned by recurring income and long-term real estate value.

It makes sense that Red Rock would reward shareholders since officers and directors are the largest shareholders. Thanks to a split share structure, insiders own about 20% of the company and have full voting control.

With Nevada continuing to lead the nation in population growth, a stable regulatory environment, and rising discretionary income across key demographics, Red Rock’s fundamentals look durable. When you add a portfolio of wholly-owned assets, meaningful free cash flow, a clear development runway, and a commitment to reducing leverage, it becomes clear: Red Rock Resorts is building more than just casinos.

It is building wealth for shareholders.

Finding good businesses that are actively paying down debt where insiders have skin in the game allows us to do exactly what private equity investors have done to rack up huge returns.

Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.

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