Day Gain | ||
Gain | ||
Market Val | ||
Costs | ||
Cash | ||
Portfolio | ||
Realized | ||
Dividend |
Date | For | Estimate | Reported | Surprise | surprise % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024-05-02 | 2024-01 | -2.61 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
2023-11-16 | 2023-10 | 3.49 | 3.22 | -0.27 | -7.74% |
2023-08-17 | 2023-07 | -2.16 | -2.12 | 0.04 | 1.85% |
2023-05-24 | 2023-04 | -1.77 | -2 | -0.23 | -12.99% |
2023-03-16 | 2023-01 | -4.18 | -3.87 | 0.31 | 7.42% |
2022-11-17 | 2022-10 | 3.97 | 3.33 | -0.64 | -16.12% |
Date | Firm | Action | From | To |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-08-17 | Telsey Advisory Group | Upgrade | Market Perform | Market Perform |
2023-08-17 | B. Riley Securities | Upgrade | Buy | Buy |
2023-08-15 | Telsey Advisory Group | Upgrade | Market Perform | Market Perform |
2023-06-19 | B. Riley Securities | Upgrade | Buy | Buy |
2023-06-12 | Telsey Advisory Group | Upgrade | Market Perform | Market Perform |
2023-05-24 | Telsey Advisory Group | Upgrade | Market Perform | Market Perform |
Date | Name | Relation | Quantity | Description |
---|---|---|---|---|
2024-03-12 | ARSHAD HUSSAN | Director | 8.47K | Stock Award(Grant) |
2024-02-04 | BOLAND ELIZABETH J | Director | 22.28K | Stock Award(Grant) |
2024-03-13 | EDWARDS DOUGLAS R | Director | 9.53K | Stock Award(Grant) |
2024-04-14 | ELFERS JANE T | Chief Executive Officer | 409.06K | Stock Award(Grant) |
2024-04-14 | MARKEE MAEGAN | Officer | 53.11K | Stock Award(Grant) |
2024-02-08 | MATTHEWS NORMAN STUART | Chairman of the Board | 146.00K | Stock Award(Grant) |
Report Date | Organization | Position | Value | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-06-29 | Franklin Resources, Inc. | 1.30M | 30.23M | 10.44% |
2023-06-29 | Blackrock Inc. | 929.18K | 21.57M | 7.45% |
2023-06-29 | Vanguard Group Inc | 858.95K | 19.94M | 6.88% |
2023-06-29 | T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | 698.37K | 16.21M | 5.60% |
2023-06-29 | Neuberger Berman Group, LLC | 684.26K | 15.88M | 5.48% |
2023-06-29 | Fund 1 Investments, LLC | 553.88K | 12.86M | 4.44% |
Report Date | Organization | Position | Value | Percentage |
---|---|---|---|---|
2023-07-30 | Franklin Value Investors Trust-Franklin Small Cap Value | 885.23K | 27.83M | 7.09% |
2023-06-29 | Price (T.Rowe) Small-Cap Value Fund | 429.50K | 9.97M | 3.44% |
2023-06-29 | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund | 378.24K | 8.78M | 3.03% |
2023-08-30 | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | 278.18K | 7.37M | 2.23% |
2023-06-29 | Franklin Templeton VIP-Small Cap Value VIP Fund | 226.37K | 5.25M | 1.81% |
2023-06-29 | Price (T.Rowe) U.S. Small-Cap Value Equity Trust | 191.84K | 4.45M | 1.54% |
Dividend | Date |
---|---|
0.56 | 2019-12-13 |
0.56 | 2019-09-20 |
0.56 | 2019-06-17 |
0.56 | 2019-04-12 |
0.5 | 2018-12-14 |
0.5 | 2018-09-04 |
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After the bought the 54% holdings, the Saudis decided to infuse $78 million loan and then another $90 million in LT loans. They have access to much more information than we have. They are not stupid. We will learn more next week when issue the ER.
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Not today… next week it will be released. They can announce by Friday May 3rd.
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Updated availability will be more than $100 million which is more than sufficient to support the business by 2025.
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The bank took advantage on the technical default due to the change in ownership… and forced the Saudis to repay the term loan and also to infuse additional subordinated loans.
This is very good for the company. -
ER is probably due tomorrow. Anyway the latest is May 3nd.
-
Book value of the equity will be ~ negative $20-30 million end of the year. This does not include the value of the main brands.
The value of the brands is easily $300 million!
This is why even in worst case scenario the value of the company in minimum 20$ a share. -
Imagine 2025:
Sales 1.7B$
GM 35%
EBITDA 10% or $170 million.
Market cap 7.5 times EBITDA minus $200 million debt is 1.075B$ market cap or 86$ a share. This is doable just need to focus on good collection, buy at right price and execute. -
We will see correction today. Minimum plus 10%.
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Looks like some analysts have waked up. Sentiment is changing from sell to neutral…
We will see big correction today.
Tomorrow the ER will give us more insights re Q1 and 2024. -
Reversal will be very aggressive. ST trading is short players when the buyers get back it will be a slaughter for the shorties.
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Added 3K yesterday now fully loaded with 53K shares.
We will be laughing a year from now that we did not buy more… -
No liquidity issues, new strong shareholders 1.7B$ business with potential to get back on track within 9-12 months traded at 100$ million market cap…
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Look at the fundamentals - $1.7 million kids apparel business. It is a good business to be if you have good management it is normal to get to 10% EBITDA.
The new shareholders are supporting now they just need to execute. No liquidity issues.
1.7B$ sales traded at $100 million this is a huge opportunity. Good management can lead a business turnaround within 9-12 months. I have been there and did that… -
Class action is ridiculous - “they should have known that inventory had lots of MD before they released Q4 ER… “ - it is a joke. In the apparel industry things like that happen all the time this is why you need good management. You can not sue people for making mistake in inventory management…
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With the right management this will achieve 1.7B$ sales with 10% EBITDA in 2025. This is 70-80$ per share in 2 years. Saudis are not stupid they know they can monetize the potential!
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50% of their business cards a online.
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The issues they have are all manageable and easy to solve in 9-12 months. Main issues is get the liquidity they need which looks like they have now with the new owners and get new CEO/CFO.
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The real question is why they are delaying the Q4 ER? Many investors are rightfully worried that something bad is happening.
I think it may also bring good news such as:
- The Gordon brothers deal?
- New management?
- Restructuring plan?
- New bank deal?
- Mithaq issue tender to buy 100% of the shares and de-list?
The Q4 results were published in the profit warning issued back in January so that is old news.
All the above or some of them will be considered good news and the stock will react accordingly.
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To J Helton - as I wrote before the cash loss during the year and Q4 have eaten some of the availability. When you lose money (in cash) you need to fund it either from new loans or by using your current ABL availability.
This is why Mithaq infused $78 million of which $28 million will be used to increase availability and the remainder to repay the term loan.
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